moonslav59

#49 Yoeilin Cespedes Highly-regarded international signing. Quick wrists, compact swing, above-average raw power. Good approach for his age. Will start at shortstop but may need to move to second or third base eventually. Average arm, average speed. Solid makeup. 48. Oddanier Mosqueda Projects as organizational bullpen depth. Ceiling of an up-and-down reliever. Has improved year after year and shown bat-missing ability. Secondary pitches and command and control need refinement. Will show intriguing spin rates on fastball and slider. Comes from a very tough angle for left-handed hitters and has excelled against them so far in the high minors. 47. Noah Dean Will transition to the starting rotation in pro ball, but could always fall back to the bullpen, where his fastball will definitely play. Intriguing raw stuff with untapped potential. Needs to work on secondaries and command and control, but lefties who get up to the high-90s and miss bats are not that easy to find, so presents a really intriguing package for a pitching prospect. 46. Theo Denlinger (Traded F German) Potential solid organizational depth reliever with the chance to develop into at least an emergency up-and-down arm. Ceiling of a middle reliever. Fastball is his best pitch and shows promising characteristics, but needs to find consistent command and a secondary pitch.

The list is getting more interesting and promising as we head into the top 50: http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/02/2023-sox-prospects-countdown-to-spring.html

Ain't that the truth! Something we can all agree on.

Did you notice, in terms of wins projected, the ALE vs ALW: 1. NYY>HOU (+0.3) 2. TOR> SEA (+3.6) 3. TBR>LAA (+4.7) 4. BOS 5. BAL>OAK (+7.5) Net: ALE +15.6

31% chance to make the WC seems a bit low but understandable. They project us going 81-81 and finishing 5 games ahead of BAL- firmly in 4th place. 6 games behind TOR & TBR.

Yes, He did okay for us in 2021, and Chavis had and would have no place on this team. Chavis has hit .673 for PIT. Anyway, I was talking about overall. If that is the worst trade, it's good sign. I'd have picked the Moreland trade.

It should be an interesting season.

Avg Rank of Opponent in 2022: 13.2 Red Sox 13.4 Oakland 13.7 Washington 13.8 Baltimore 14.3 Miami 14.4 LAA 14.6 TOR

We may need a DH in 2 years, but 25% seems about right. Maybe he's trade bait.

What kind of odds do you give him for making a meaningful ML contribution at 1B or DH?

Welcome back! I hope you were never near dead!

If Bloom has done one thing well, it's deadline trades: 2020: Pivetta & Seabold for Workman & Hembree (Moreland for Potts & Rosario and Pillar for Jacob Wallace, but what can be expected?) 2021: Schwarber for Aldo Ramirez Robles for Adam Scherff A Davis for Michael Chavis (Iggy and Shaw pick-ups were not trades.) 2022: Reese McGuire for Diekman E Valdez & W Abreu for Vaz Maz Ferguson, Corey Rosier & Hosmer for Jay Groome

He only had 81 ABs at AA and still managed a .370 OBP, but I get your point.

I know he is 24 and projects as a DH type, but why is he still only ranked 20th?

Indeed.

That could be a great thing or a bad thing.

It might have been by a tiny bit, but we did. We didn't get to play us, all year!

It's hard to predict injuries. He is a pretty good pitcher.

It's 6 games vs .611 NYY #5 .568 TOR #8 .531 TBR #13 .512 BAL #14 24 games vs top half teams replaced by an average of teams at .500. It's fine to think it might not matter, but let's not gloss over facts. We will be playing more games vs more teams with lower winning percentages, this year. We will be playing less games vs teams that won more in 2022. It might not matter or matter much, but it looks helpful, to me.

We had the toughest schedule in MLB. It almost rises to the level of college football.

Not mentioning it in 2021 does not mean it was unimportant. The other difference was the records in the division- not outside (see below). You are right, though, what happened last year does not mean it will in '23. The stark difference between '21 and '22 shines a light on that fact. 2021: 41-35 v AL East 51-35 v others 2022: 26-50 v AL East 52-34 v others The non ALE records were almost identical between '22 and '23. If we play more games vs "others," it should help. Note the emphasis on should. If we play less vs the ALE, that should help, too. It might not, but I think it is worth pointing out as a factor that may help us win more games, this year. 12 games is 15% of the schedule. Winning more due to the schedule does not mean we are any better of a team, and there is no guarantee had we not been in the ALE, last year, we'd have ended up with a .600 win %, but I do think it is an indicator that we were not quite as bad as our record indicated. I know this matters little to you, but I don't think we were as bad as many think we were in 2022. (Note: we likely weren't as good as our record showed in 2021, either.)

I was thinking maybe ONLY #2 looks like a (near) certain drop off. The rest may show increases and might even be odds on to show a plus. If they slot Devers second, then the 3 slot will be a near certain minus.

True, we do know some top 10 players did start off between 20 and 60.

How about looking at the line-up of 2022 and how 2023 might compare: By batting slot #: 2022 OBP/SLG/OPS (Most PAs in 2022)> possible 2023 1 .295/.370/.665 (Kike/Pham/Duran) > Yoshida 2 .347/.496/.843 (Devers & Verdugo)> Kike 3 .375/.461/.836 (Bogaerts & JD M)> Devers 4 .344/.437/.781 (Bogey, Dugo & JD)> Turner 5 .324/.407/.732 (Verdugo & JD M) > Casas 6 .314/.410/.724 (Story, Arroyo, others)> Duvall 7 .317/.434/.751 (Cordero, Dalbec, others)> Dugo 8 .272/.298/.570 (JBJ, Dalbec, Vaz, others)> Arroyo/Mondesi 9 .291/.352/.642 (JBJ, Plaw/Wong, others)> McGuire/Wong How many of these 9 slots do you see as getting worse?

I am far from giving up on Dalbec. He could just be a streaky hitter who had a long slump, last year. I don't mind having him as an emergency 3rd or 4th string SS/2Bman, but Mondesi will likely start the season on the bench or 10 day IL. I can't see starting the season with just Kike and Arroyo as middle IF'ers and Dalbec as the next guy in. (Plus, Kike is likely still part of our OF depth, if Mondesi and Arroyo are both healthy.)