moonslav59

Look at the spending since the deadline in 2019 to March 2022 and compare to the day we signed Story and beyond (still less than a year.) IMO, the spending uptick has begun and will continue next winter, maybe even something special at the deadline, too. We did nothing at the 2019 deadline. We cut and traded more salary after 2019 than we spent in the next 2 years- almost all the deals were one year stints. New deals since March 2022: 313.5/10 Devers (begins in 2024) 140/6 Story 90/5 Yoshida 32/2 Jansen 22/2 Kluber 21.7/2 Turner 18.8M/4 Whitlock ('23-'26) 17.5/2 Martin 10/1 Kike (extensión) 7/1 Duvall 5.8M/2 J Rodriguez This pattern is way different from March 2019 (Sale extension)-March 2022 (before Story signing.)

How many players are left from the 2021 ML roster? Rank in 2021 PAs 1. Devers 3. Verdugo 4. Kike 8. Dalbec (likely in AAA) 10. Arroyo 15. Duran (likely in AAA) 21. Wong (back-up catcher- had 14 PAs in 2021) IP Ranks: 3. Pivetta 6. Whitlock 7. Houck 12. Sale 21. Brasier (12 IP in 2021) 28. Schreiber (3 IP in 2021) 31. Crawford (2 IP in 2021)

It's stunning to look at the 40 man roster by seniority on the 40 and see Verdugo 5th. He wasn't even on the 2019 team! The guys ahead of him are: 1. Sale (2016>) Hardly plays 2. Devers (Homegrown) 3. Brasier (added summer 2020) may not be here long. 4. Dalbec (Homegrown) may not be here long.

Henry has always had a lot of "things on the fire." He has more money now than he did in 2004, too. Yes, the game has changed, making it harder on teams that spend, spend, spend. There are more than financial penalties against big spenders. JH has shown signs of increased spending in the last 12 months, and most deals are 2 or more years long- not one, like 2020, 2021 and even 2022. The farm full of "suspects" as you like to call them, is looking to mature very soon. To me, I see a window opening. I had hoped it would be flung open, this winter, but I can see how waiting for Mayer, Rafaela and others to join the big club and Casas, Bello, Whitlock, Mata and others to go through arbs at low costs makes some sense. Patience is still a virtue, to me, but I don't expect everyone to agree. I can see why many people think the wait has already been too long. I just seem to be a bit more willing to wait it out.

The ole "be careful what you wish for" comes to mind. I understand fan frustration. I'm frustrated, too, despite expecting a lull was coming after 2016-2018. Maybe 2021 got my hopes up, too high, but I still think we have been heading down a path towards more sustainable winning. Maybe the farm is all hype and empty promises, but I respect the plan they chose. Yes, mistakes were made, along the way that kept us from more enjoyable seasons along the way. The Lester and Bogey situations are burned in all our minds, but we've also made some good to great choices about letting some stars go (Pedro, Agon, Beckett,) even some younger ones like Ellsbury. It's a business to JH and most owners. Compared to 20-25 other current owners, JH is clearly a better owner. I guess I just don't find myself dreaming we find the next Steve Cohen to buy the team.

Yes. IMO he is just waiting to pounce, like he has in the past (several times.) Why didn't he lose the "drive" you speak of after 2007 or 2013. In fact, there were rumblings after 2014 and 2015, then BAM! We sign Price and the next window opens. IMO, a window will open, again. I'm getting antsy, too, but I'm cutting this guy a break (and a few more to go.)

Nobody is perfect. I'm sure JH has made many choices I'd disagree with as a man, businessman and Sox owner, but to me, he brought the change that was needed to the Sox that led to 4 rings. That makes him the best thing that has happened to the Sox in a century, IMO. Does the guy get a lifetime free pass? Obviously not to many fans, but to me, I haven't even begun to think it's time for a change, or that he has "lost" anything over the years. Just about everything that has happened in the last few years has happened before. JH has gone up and down with spending and has timed it pretty close to right- usually when there is a group of young players about to make an impact. It's taking longer for the farm to get us to that point than many wanted or thought it would take, but I do think we are getting close. Ask me again in a year or two, but I'm 100% behind Henry as the Sox owner.

I'm going to stick to my pledge and not get personal, here.

He's the best thing that has happened to the Sox in the last century. Ooh-fah to all the doubters.

Yeah, the last few times I've hung around JH, he seemed devoid of passion. BTW, 2013 was a long time ago in 2018. The same as 2023 is from 2018.

It might take years, and some we can't even lift. Am I the only Sox fan still thrilled, and I mean extremely thrilled, he's the owner?

We could have stayed under the tax line much more easily with no Paxton

Okay. The Schwarber dice roll worked. The paxton signing was puzzling on day one, but there is still time for him to earn the $10M. I like the Mondesi gamble in his "walk year."

I get that this just quick sound bites on a few teams, but no mention of Yoshida as a key to bucking the odds, seemed strange, to me.

Some waits have been worth it: Pivetta (although his upside is a 4 slot SP) Renfroe (before dumping him) Kike Schreiber Refsnyder Strahm RHill Wacha I'm probably missing a couple others.

#41 to #45 on soxprospects.com: 45 Luis Ravelo Defense-first profile right now, with future upside tied up in how he physically matures and how his bat develops. At the moment, he is raw with a wide gap between what he is and what he could be. 44 Allan Castro Intriguing young bat who has shown a solid swing and ability to drive the ball. Has platoon concerns, but has some upside at the plate. Needs to get stronger and has a long way to go, but scouts identified him as one of the more interesting hitters on a loaded 2022 FCL team. 43 Juan Daniel Encarnacion Potential minor league depth arm. Ceiling of an organizational arm. Shows the early makings of a three-pitch mix, but does not have stand-out stuff and lacks a major league-quality pitch. Velocity has improved already. Has some deception in his delivery and already shows some feel. Has a way to go developmentally and future potential depends on him maturing physically and his stuff improving. 42 Angel Bastardo Intriguing arm who likely profiles best in the bullpen unless third pitch and command/control profile take a step forward. Is still more of a thrower than a pitcher, but flashes a potential three-pitch mix. Needs to refine command and control. 41 Taylor Broadway Intriguing arm with a power three-pitch mix that could profile in a major league bullpen role. Has shown premium bat-missing ability, but also been hit very hard. Developing command and consistency are key for him to reach his potential.

There were certainly "not-go-for-it"seasons, and that's what I meant by cycling for rings. My point was that they probably always felt every team, except 2020, was decent enough to make a run for the playoffs, but 3rd place was probably they expectation by top brass. So many last place finishes didn't seem to light much of a fire under them to change the model, except for maybe the Price signing, and now the Devers extension. The fact that we are now 10th in spending is more about other teams going nutty than JH getting out-of-the-norm stingy. This is the pattern JH has followed for a long time. It's worked in the past, but with all the changes to MLB in the last few years, who knows, if it will again.

Let’s hope that becomes 2 out of 4 after 2023.

4 years in a row under 4O% to start the season!

They will sell out almost all games, this year, so they charge what they can get. It’s the American way! Look at concert prices!

I don’t disagree. I don’t think the plan was to finish last in any year, except maybe 2020, after we found out Sale and ERod would miss the season. A few of those teams that finished last, since 2012 did not appear to be last place teams in March- not that this matters much to fans, but I do not think the “cycle to rings” plan involves total tanking.

Fangraphs has us just $6M from being 8th. We may get there by the deadline. That's still not top 3-5, like we were for almost 20 years, but it's not like we've gone Rays and O's. I do think Henry will cycle into a high spending period at some point after 2023, when the youngsters provide the depth needed to make a strong push for a ring with a couple big signings. I had hopes "that year" might have been 2023, but I can see why waiting a year or two more might make more sense to JH & Co. It might need to be before 2026 and the new CBA.

The way we're doing things, now was comical.

Top 6 starters since 2019 (numbers as starter only): 2022: 33 Pivetta 4.56 26 R Hill 4.27 23 Wacha 3.32 20 Nate 3.87 14 Wink 5.75 12 Crawford 5.43/ 11 Bello 4.82/ 9 Whitlock 4.15 (5 Seabold 11.29/ 4 Houck 4.32) It's hard for me to think our 6-10 SP'ers in 2023 will do worse than this. 2021 32 Nate 3.75 31 ERod 4.77 30 Pivetta 4.56 22 Richards 5.22 22 Perez 4.77 13 Houck 3.68 & Sale 9 3.16 (#2-5 were very pedestrian.) #6 & 7 did well, but we had nothing after them, and Sale was hurt. 2020: 12 Perez 4.50 9 Nate 3.72 7 Godley 9.49 6 Mazza 5.01 5 Weber 7.11 4 Brewer 6.91 (Yuck-a-doodle-doo!) 2019 34 ERod 3.81 32 Porcello 5.52 25 Sale 4.40 22 Price 4.28 12 Nate 6.13 8 Velazquez 6.95/ 7 Johnson 5.09/ 6 Cashner 8.01/5 Chacin 7.90 (SP depth was horrific in 2019.) The 2023 Rotation and 2022 Numbers 1. Sale n/a 2. Kluber 31 GS 4.34 3. Whitlock 4.15 as SP 4. Bello 4.82 as SP 5. Pivetta 4.56 6. Paxton n/a 7. Mata n/a or Houck 4.32 as SP 8. Crawford 5.43 as SP 9. Wink 5.75 as SP 10. Walter n/a 11. Murphy n/a

Only 9 starts from Sale (42 IP,) so that pushed him out of the top 10, and Perez & Richards were booted from the rotation. Other than Nate (3.75 ERA in 32 GS), the rest of the rotation was meh: 4.74 ERod 31 GS/158 IP 4.53 Pivetta 30/155 5.22 Richards 22/110 as a starter 4.77 Perez 22/100 as SP Maybe better depth, here, might have got us over the hump.