moonslav59

No doubt, it was a hot debate for years. Many assumed Bogey would have signed for a reasonable deal a year or two before reaching free agency or even earlier in 2022. I do think he'd have signed for less than the Padres gave him, but I'm not so sure the $160M/6 deal many seemed to think he'd have taken would actually have been taken, except maybe way back when he signed the extension under DD, with the opt out. I think the Sox felt Story was similar in value as Boey- better D but worse on O. They felt $140M was better that whatever Bogey would have taken. I'm not sure I buy all the shock and awe Bloom put forth, when Bogey signed with SD. I think he knew they were too far apart, all along in the process, and that is why he jumped at Story in March '22. I was not against bringing Bogey back, at what I felt was market value, but clearly we all miscalculated what that 2023 value was. Maybe Bogey knew all along he'd get way more than what Boston was floating. I will say, departing players almost always say the same things. It's hard to know everything that went down and the true feelings Bogey had. If he thought he was worth $240M/8 or even $200M/7, and we never got close to those offers, I don't bame him for bolting. While $200M/7 looks pretty good, right now, back then, it seemed like a lot, and I can understand not offering that, especially with Story in the system, already. I guess the best time would have been before we signed Story, or way back when DD extended him. We should have paid him more and not had an opt-out.

He is one of our hardest returning players to predict performance in 2024. He's barely player for us, and had a couple min hot streaks mixed in with really horrific small sample size stretches. In now way do I see those sample sizes as something we should expect over a 500+ PA season, assuming he gives us one, but it does seem possible he could lay an egg on O. I've said this a number of times, but most players have a few hot streaks that pad their stats to the points of acceptability to greatness, ot they don't last long- even the great fielders. Story is no exception, and he the last two seasons of limited action have seen some wildly bad streaks: 2022: .561 in first 127 PAs 1.154 middle 81 PAs .687 last 188 PAs, which included a .569 stretch of 86 PAs 2023 saw only 168 PAs, so the breakdowns will be super small sample sizes: .348 first 12 PAs 1.667 next 12 PAs (.751 in these 12 + the next 39 PAs) .257 in his next 40 PAs .679 in his last 69 PAs, including .812 in his last 31 PAs I know big K guys bother many people. They do me, as well, when they aren't walking or hitting HRs. Story needs to do more walking and homering.

1. We have no idea what Bogey would have signed for 1, 2, 3 or more years ago. I disagree. I think Story is a phenomenal defender at SS and 2B. He was Bloom's biggest FA signing, and has fallen way short of expectations, for sure. The injury was known, and that is on Bloom

Soxprospects.com says this... Profiles best in a corner outfield position. Solid instincts and efficient routes. Not a flashy defender, but makes the routine plays and does a good job getting to balls on the move. Could be an above-average defender in right field, but projects as fringe-average in center field... Above-average arm. Accurate with good carry.

Have you totally given up on any chance with Story?

What are you thoughts on only Abreu's defense in RF?

What a great power hitter! He was 87.

By drafting mostly HS players he pushed the rebuild plan from 2-4 years to 4-6 years and lost his job.

The rumor was Bello.

Yes, he mentioned "Murphy's Law." LOL!

MLBTR says the Sox had made an offer for Sean Murphy... Cotillo goes on to report that the Red Sox “made a serious run” at a trade with the Athletics to acquire All-Star catcher Sean Murphy, making what Cotillo describes as a “competitive” offer to the A’s before they ultimately settled on a three-team deal with the Braves and Brewers to send Murphy to Atlanta. The Red Sox were among the many known suitors for Murphy last offseason, though the A’s set their asking price rather high, with right-hander Brayan Bello’s name floated in the rumor mill as a potential return. That being said, Boston’s level of interest appears to have been greater than was initially reported, given the new information that Boston made a formal offer for Murphy’s services.

I think, for the most part, the pitcher values listed on BTV are low, if the pitcher is young and has 3+ years of control. I disagree with some of their scores, and I'm pretty certain most trades where you off three $7M players for one $21M player will not be accepted by the $21M player's team, unless the player is being paid a lot of has 1 year (maybe 2) of control left. Here is my opinion on a few Sox players' values: 30 Duran (I'd say 22-25) 29 Bleis (maybe 22-25) 17 Rafaela (I'd say 23-25) 17 Yorke (I'd say 9-11) 14 Scheiber (maybe 7-9) 5.7 Drohan (2-4) 4.0 Wikelman (8-10) 3.3 Abreu (8-10) 3.2 Martin (6-8) 2.5 Cespedes (10-12) 2.3 Monegro (8-10) 2.2 Castro (6-8) 1.8 Jimenez (not sure why he's above about 20 players listed) 0.5 Gambrell (3-5) 0.5 Rosier (2-4) -80 Story (to -37-40)

My bad. You are correct. You guys have a nice set of SP'ers with many years of control.

I'm not for shooting at 2025. I've waited long enough, but if the plan is to go all in for 2025, when Mayer, Teel and maybe Anthony will be MLB ready, and Yorke, Rafaela, Abreu, Casas, Bello and others are nearer to prime, then it may be worth a dice roll.

Yes, it is a gamble. A big one.

I think Houck will end up being the better pitcher going forward, but Crawford has one more year of control.

Why do you keep reading into my posts things I am not even close to suggesting. I'm all for trading Dugo. BTW, most players pad thier stats with hot weeks, here and there.

Here are the highest rated pitchers on BTV by value in $millions: (Remember, they take player value and years of control and minus salary owed or estimated. I do not know how they valued FA pitchers.) 211 Strider 107 Kirby 103 Webb 85 Gilbert 73 Gallen 71 Peralta 69 EPerez 65 BMiller 64 Steele 62 Luzardo 62 Bradish 58 Garrett 57 Gausman 57 FValdez 56 Skubal 55 Nola 53 P Lopez 52 Bibee 51 Cease 49 H Brown, D Rodriguez, R Detmers 45 B Elder, S Gray 44 J Ryan 42 Snell 41 G Williams 40 S Gray 38 H Greene 37 T Bradley 36 Bello, M Keller, Ohtani 35 L Castillo, McKenzie 34 Sandoval 31 McClanahan, A Abbott, M kelly 30 Burnes, Eflin, Suarez, Wheeler, Ashcraft 29 KCrawford, T Mahle, K Harrison 28. L Allen, B Ober, Kershaw 27 Montas, Senga, Stroman, Bryce Miller 26 ERod 25 Urias, Singer 24 Alcantara, Gore 23 Oviedo, Pfaadt 22 Kremer, Wacha, Houck 21 L Garcia, Rasmussen, Gibson, Sheehan, Canning, Civale 20 Y Cano, T Rogers 16 Whitlock 12 Winckowski 10 Pivetta

Agreed on Burnes. Trading for Alcantara now vs 2025 would create less of a return need, as MIA would love to save some more money for 2024. I get the turn-off, and our record with injured pitcher acquisitions is horrible. This kid is the real deal, though. His cost is $11.2 on the tax line from '24 to '26 and he has a $21M team option for 2027 with a $2M buyout. If he comes back strong in '25 and '26, we'd be paying $33.6 tax line for 2 years (3 seasons- 1 on IL.) If we take the option, his tax hit would be $54.6M/4, or about $13M/yr, but we'd get 3 years from him. It was this reasoning that led me to like the Sale extension, so I realize the risk. Alcantara is younger, though.

He did hit .757 from the ASB to August 26th. Not great, but not really a "tank," either. He ended 2023 by going 15 for 96 with just 6 XBhs. That was an awful .462 OPS. After the 17-1 win over HOU on August 24th, here were the Sox OPS: Over 70 PAs, unless noted 1.034 Casas .931 EValdez (48 PAs) .793 Devers .743 Abreu .735 Duvall .675 Yoshida .666 Rafaela .640 Turner .617 Refsnyder (34) .608 McGuire (54) .608 Dalbec (39) .606 Urias (59) .569 Story .554 Verdugo .514 Wong .403 Reyes (39)

I haven't been this excited about the future of our catching position in a long time. I'd be more than happy to have Wong or McGuire as the #2 catcher. I'm okay with our 1-2 catchers, now. I'm not sure why both of our ctachers seemed to hit the wall, along with all our other players, at some point in August or September. Wong peaked at .779 on June 1st, but I'm not sure we can really view that as his ceiling. He dipped to .677 in mid July before bringing it back up to .729 on September 9th. I hope this can be his norm. He went 3 for 40 to end the season (a horrific .198 OPS) and ended at .673. I'm hoping he can hit .700-.750 in 2024. McGuire battled injuries. He started out hitting well, but he dipped to .665 mid June, before going on the IL. He creeped up to .736 by August 27th, before slumping and finishing at .668. (He went 7 for 43 to end 2023. That was a .443 OPS. I'm hopeful he can end up between .690 and .740 in 2024. Teel would be a great add. I like Scott and think we may protect him Rule 5, this winter, as our 3rd string catcher, who starts in AAA. I think Hickey gets moved to another position. Brannon is hard to project. Joh. Garcia could be a nice surprise.

He's not our weakest link, by far, but with one year left and some attitude issues, I think he's a goner. Maybe Breslow will see him differently. I do not think it is wise to turn over CF and RF to a mix of Duran (LF/CF), Rafaela (CF/SS/2B) and Abreu (OF.) Refsnyder should only be an emergency RF'er, unless it is NY or a park with a short RF. I'd add Duvall, who might cost about as much as Dugo's $9M arb estimate. No added cost. A gain of a RHB. A better attitude.

I realize it is a crude and flawed way to look at slot rankings, but these guys have all pitched well enough to outperform most others. I did not mean to imply these guys are better than Bello or will be. Bello's 2022-2023 numbers are brought down by 2022, but also the end of 2023. I'm fine saying Bello is the #2 and Singer, Keller or Sandoval would be the #3. I think it would very hard to say any of these guys have 90 SP'ers better than them. I see Cease as a solid #2. The one year of Burnes is a big turn off. If we are looking at 2025, I think Alcantara is in play. .

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/looking-for-a-match-in-an-alex-verdugo-trade.html

I'd be in heaven! Maybe add Duvall. Trade Dugo for a LH'd RP'er and call it a day.