moonslav59

Sox bWARs from 2025: 6.3 Crochet 4.7 Rafaela & Duran 3.8 Story 3.5 Chapman 3.2 Abreu 3.1 Anthony (half a season) 2.8 Durbin (w MIL) 2.6 Narvaez 2.5 Bello 2.5 Contreras (w STL) 2.4 Whitlock 2.0 Romy 1.1 Weissert 0.6 Early (4 starts) 0.2 mayer & Masa ___________________ fWAR 5.8 Crochet 3.9 Duran 3.8 Rafaela & Gray 3.0 Story 2.8 Contreras 2.7 Anthony & Narvaez 2.6 Chapman & Durbin 2.4 Abreu 2.2 Whitlock 1.9 Bello 1.5 Romy 1.1 Early 0.7 Weissert 0.4 Slaten, Kelly, Mayer & Eaton

That's not what "at best" means.

They must have liked something more than we did.

The Sox were 10th in ISO and 9th in SLG in '25. In 2004, we were first and second. (T 3rd in pitching fWAR) 2007: 8th and 6th. (6th in pitching) 2013: 1st and 2nd. (14th in pitching) 2018: 4th and 1st (6th in pitching fWAR) ____________________________________ From 2004-2013: 2nd ISO/1st SLG & 9th in Pitching 2014-2018: 15th ISO/ 6th SLG & 8th in Pitching 2019-2024: 6th ISO/ 4th SLG & 15th Pitching

But only at 2B and only vs RHPs and only for half a season and only for...

I do wonder about Springer repeating. I also wonder about Grisham, too.

It's not like I came up with the notion for the first time in history.

Counting on Houck to be ready in April 2027 might be too much to ask.

AL Projected Team fWAR 47.9 TOR 47.5 NYY 46.8 SEA 46.2 BOS (-1.7 from TOR/ -1.3 from NYY/ -0.6 from SEA) 45.3 BAL 44.3 DET 42.3 HOU

No wonder they make dumb trades like this.

I almost wrote this, yesterday.

The O's have finally made some serious moves, but they started so far behind us, I'm not sure how close we can rate them. We won 14 more games than they did in 2025 and 22 more by the Pythagorean numbers. IMO, we got better, so in theory, they have to make up more than 14-22 games. I know I let my hatred towards the Yanks cloud my judgement, and I've been predicting their decline, mostly due to age factors, having a dumb manager and GM, and quite frankly spending on worse players than we have in recent years. I thought losing Soto was going to kill them, but they got a career year from Grisham and some ole fogies did better than I thought. I'm going to run my mantra again, this winter: I think the Yanks get worse in 2026. BTW, we were in second place on September 10, 2025. It's not a great leap to think we will pass them. TOR way outperformed their Pythagorean numbers (by 6 wins.) I'm not sure how much that matters, but it's a straw I grasped. I don't think losing Bichette & Bassitt and adding a questionable Cease & Oko is going to make up for that loss. Ponce could be a big help- or not. I think 1st and 2nd place are well within our reach, and not so much because we made any great gains, but because the other teams failed to improve or even got worse. I also look at our key players positions on the prime bell curve and think we have a better chance of seeing improvement that they do.

I'm actually shocked at how little we gave up for Durbin. Had it only been Durbin, without the 2 other depth players and the comp pick, which should not be undervalued, even if just for the added bonus money, it would still look great, to me. MIL must really like Harrison. It better not be DHam they like.

Don't link those onions to idiocy. They are pure genius.

Sorry. I have to fight back laughter on this. I'm done counting on hopes of pitchers returning from the IL on schedule or earlier.

On not addressing the power need and "not improving" on power from the 2025 season: the guy who jumps to mind the most is Devers, and rightly so, but he was only here for a couple months. The Sox w Devers: .169 ISO/ .422 SLG The Sox after Devers: .166 ISO/ .421 SLG Not much difference, so one could argue we can compare the post Devers Sox to the 2026 Sox, but I'll include Devers in the list of departed batters: Note that none of our best power hitters were top 3 in PAs and only Bregman was top 7. (Only Breggie & Raffy were top 11 in PAs) .232/.504 Devers (334 PaS) .214/.482 Refsnyder (209 PAs) .189/.462 Bregman (495 PAs) .140/.420 N Lowe (119) .131/.256 Toro (284) 10th in PAs Adds: .190/.447 Contreras (563) is close to Bregman (may see numbers rise in Fenway) .130/.387 Durbin (506) improves on Toro's power numbers a bit but not Lowe's. We really need 600+ PAs from... .171/.468 Anthony (303) at similar numbers as these- maybe with some more pop. It's not an unreasonable ask. It is safe to say we did not improve on HR power from 2025, and instead we'll need improved pop from returning players and maybe from Contreras & Durbin playing half their games at Fenway.

Very true. It's always hard to measure when you improve in 1-2 area but get worse in 1-2 other areas.

"Elite" is a relative term. Preventing HRs is just as important as hitting them.

Did you miss the comment about joking? Nobody wants Masa. He'd be gone, if just one team halfway wanted him or just mentioned his name in a conversation with Brez.

Durbin turns 26, soon. While the age of prime varies from player to player, and many players don't get any better after 25 or 26, the ones who stick around into their 30's more often than not get better. After 3 seasons in college at over a 1.000 ops, Caleb hovered in the mid .700s, until he reached AAA in 2024. Over two seasons in AAA, he hit .858 with about 18 HRs per 650 (45 2B+3B & 45 SBs) Maybe this is his ceiling? It's hard to know. .285 w 20 HRs and 30 SBs is pretty good. He won't K much, so that will make some posters happy. He seems pretty good on D, too, and it remains to be seen where they place him and Mayer. He wasn't the big bat many of us had hoped for, so I do still feel a sense of a letdown. AI felt a little bit the same way with Contreras and not Alonso. The two mini let downs combine into a sense of being a bigger letdown. I totally get the doom & gloomers. We coulda-shoulda and didn't. We did make up for at least some of that let down by power boosting the rotation beyond anyone's expectations. We traded away and swapped out some of the rotation depth, but we still remain about 4 SP'ers deep and at a level of quality very few, if any, teams can match. We may need to steal one or two of those arms for the pen, but maybe we add a piece there before opening day. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about 2026. We have a lot of upside players that are pre or near prime. We don't need them all to step up, but I do not think it is unreasonable to expect more players to step up than to regress or stay the same. Most of our key players are in prime years or before. A few are on the downside of prime, but still able to produce. Only Chapman and Gray are past the normal ages of prime.

It would have taken a miracle. Planning for a miracle is foolish.

It was meant as at least half a joke.

Bassitt to O's for $18.5M/1.

This was about Masa being the LH'd OF'er they seek. It's not happening.

When you look at the Sox ring seasons this century, you can see a very strong correlation between many GS'd by our top SP'ers and WS victories. Even when you look at the near miss seasons, they were highlighted by upticks in pitching.