moonslav59

I assume you mean OPS+... OPS+ 2025 / 2023-2025 150/135 Schwarber (turns 33 soon) 145/141 KMarte (just turned 32) 144/130 Alonso (just turned 31) 130/121 Bregman (will be 32 soon) 129/114 Bichette (will be 28 soon) 123/121 Paredes (will be 27 soon) As you can see, the top 3 are significantly better than the bottom 3, Paredes is better than B & B over a 3 year span and is younger than all 6 on this list. KMarte is better than all 6 over 3 years, but would cost a lot in trade to get. 123/127 Contreras looks better than some seem to think. He turns 34, soon. If we could get 120+ from Contreras and Paredes, I think we'll be okay, but I know we all wanted better than just "Okay."

Paredes has dealt with injuries, and that is a concern. While Alonso and Schwarber are both older, they have stayed healthy- Alonso has been the ironman for a couple years. I'd have loved to have signed Alonso, and Bregman would have been nice, instead. I know Fred wanted both, and so did I. We can argue all day long about JH being cheap, our ranking in spending vs Revenue or whatever, but the fact is JH has limits, like just about every team. We've seen a significant uptick in spending from 2023 or 2024 to 2026. Of course it could have been more, but it wasn't and likely won't be much more than we've seen the last 2 winters. Spotrac has us 6th in 2026 payroll AAV, and we are $16M behind NYY for 5th. They may sign Bellinger or someone else and go up by another $20-30M. I seriously doubt we ever get to top 5, unless something radical happens. $226M (12th) 2023 and 2024 $249M (7th) 2025 $276M (6th) 2026 I know this is not enough for many posters, but it is an uptick. We can also argue that we spent the money poorly, and that would be on Brez not JH. Some want to blame Cora for not helping us win as much as we could or might have. Some point to injuries and our trend on adding injury prone players more than the norm. I'm fine with people saying we should have spent more or spent it more wisely. I agree with much of what is said by those posters. What I often argue about is when people say, "JH won't spend, anymore." We are spending $50M more than 2023 and 2024. That's a 22% increase. This is not a defense or apology for JH. I wish he'd let Brez spend more or knock off the BS "no trade" crap and "no 6+ year" implied limits. If we really and truly wanted Breggie, we shoulda-coulda had him- Alonso, too or instead. I'm not saying this could not be true. Looking at just the AAV, we could have afforded Berggie or Alonso + Ranger, had we not added Contreras & Gray. Is that a better team? Is that a ring contender? If yes, then this is on Brez.

Do you think we are better than last year? If we add Paredes without losing Bello or Duran (or similar) are we better? If yes, how much better?

Fangraphs also projects this: fWAR/IP 1.8/156 Bello 1.2/114 Oviedo 0.9/80 Sandoval 0.6/86 Crawford 0.6/49 Early 0.5/51 Tolle 0.2/49 Harrison Sure, some of these guys project to equal or better fWARs if you even up the IP and project the same value, but it doesn't always work out that way BTV has these values per season for our pitchers: $40M Crochet, $32M Gray, ??? Ranger $20M Bello $18M Sandoval (pretty close, but really?) $13M Early, $9M Tolle, $8M Oviedo, $5M Harrison I don't think we should need to give up Duran or Bello for Paredes. BTV has Crawford worth way more than IP. If we could get Paredes, King plus once from Abreu, Sousa or Janek for Bello, I'd do it. I might do it for IP & King alone. Only because I really like IP and BK.

He should bring back the most in return out of the others in consideration, but for good reason: he's the better bet at having a plus 2026 season.

I'd wish we'd done more, too. It looks like we've been more reactive than proactive, and didn't bring home the prize(s) we needed the most. The FO basically said we need a #2SP for the rotation, and we spent almost all of our winter spent assets on 3 SP'ers: Suarez, Gray & Oviedo. The FO said we needed a big bat, since we lost Devers: we have added just Contreras, who is a nice upgrade at 1B, but we gave up trade pieces and are paying a $21M AAV for him. I like the trade, but we still need a big bat and a 3B/2Bman (or one in the same guy) but options are dwindling. I like E Suarez, but he was not at the top of my list. I had him slightly ahead of Bregman & Bichette for filling the "big bat" need, but Breggie & Bichette are better defenders at filling the 3B/2B need. Paredes might be a better "big bat" than E Suarez, especially if he can pull the ball like he has with HOU, but at Fenway. You know pitchers will pitch him differently there, and we can only speculate on his success or lack of it. He's a better defender than E Suarez, so I'd prefer him over Suarez, but he needs a trade not just money. We've backed ourselves in a corner in a number of ways. It's a bit confusing, comical or worse, depending on how you choose to look at it, but building the top rotation and near top rotation depth in MLB is not a bad thing. There are more ways to win than by bashing homers. We've seen enough of Red Sox history to know it's hard to win rings by bashing alone. Our first ring came when we added Schilling to Pedro. Our second ring came when we added Beckett to Schilling. Our third ring when we added Lackey to Lester, and out 4th came when we added Sale to Price. Now, our offense looks worse than those ring teams, but our rotation looks deeper. That might not be enough. IMO, we look about even in win projections to what we won, last year. Adding Paredes makes us better, but like you, I had hopes we'd get way better, not just 2-3 wins better. It's not like we haven't spent money this and last winter. Someone just pointed out that the AAV given Ranger was about the same as we offered Bregman. I think we'd be a better team with Bregman over Ranger, but it's not a slam dunk speculation. If we add Paredes, I'd much prefer Ranger + Paredes to Bregman + some cheap RP'er addition, which is what I think might have happened. Adding Ranger, Gray, Paredes, Contreras and Oviedo is pretty damn significant. Losing Devers, Bregman, Giolito and Refsnyder is too, but we also lost a few players who look like additions by subtractions, most notably Buehler, D May & Toro. I think we would be significantly better with Paredes and maybe B King or Sousa from HOU. It's not all I hoped for. I thought we needed just 3 major pieces and not 5 pretty good ones. If we add Paredes, I'm going to be more optimistic than pessimistic, but I know there is no chance of you ever being optimistic.

That's one way to look at it, and I do agree that Alonso & Schwarber should have better numbers in 2026 than Paredes, but it's not a sure bet. (Of course nothing in baseball is.) By 2027, which is the last year of control on Paredes, he might beat out one of the two you listed in OPS. By year 3, 4 and 5, Paredes will be gone, and the two you listed might be heading for underwater status.

BTV assigns a value to players by subtracting the salary/projected salary from the total value a player has. Players with more years of control can have significantly more value due to years not skill levels when compared to someone else. Here are the skill value per year: Crochet (40) Gray (32) Duran (27) Anthony (25) Campbell (23) Story (22) Bello (20) Sandoval (18) seems about $10M too high, and i like him! Mayer (16) Abreu (15) seems too low. Rafaela, Contreras, Slaten (14) Whitlock, Early (13) Chapman, Crawford (10) Tolle (9) Oviedo, Narvaez, Romy (8) Casas (7) Harrison (5) Yoshida (3) Weissert, DHam, Wong, Hicks (2) Sogard (1) Houck (0) Value/years: 239/6 Crochet (40) 225/9 Anthony (25) 107/9 Campbell (23) 95/7 Rafaela (14) 82/5 Mayer (16) 80/3 Duran (27) 80/4 Bello (20) 79/6 Early (13) 60/4 Abreu (15) 56/6 Tolle (9) 42/5 Narvaez (8) 39/3 Whitlock (13) 32/1 Gray (32) 29/3 Crawford (10) 28/2 Contreras (14) 27/4 Slaten (14) 23/3 Romy (8) 22/1 Story (22) 20/3 Casas (7) 19/2 Chapman 10) 18/1 Sandoval (18) 5/2 Oviedo (8) 10/2 Harrison (5) 8/4 Weissert, DHam (2) 7/5 Sogard (1) 6/2 Yoshida (3) 5/3 Wong (2) 4/2 Hicks (2) 0/2 Houck (0)

According to soxprospects.com, here are the options remaining for our pitchers: Rule 5: Watson 0 Chapman, Moran, Hicks 1 Sandoval, Oviedo, Weissert, Kelly 2 Bello, Crawford, Harrison 3 Crochet, Whitlock, Slaten, Tolle, Early, Sandlin, Drohan, Uberstine, Bennett, Samaniego

Agreed. I should have called them "depth."

I doubt the Astros are looking to add salary during a season that does not look like a winner is in the works, but if they would.... Sox sign E Suarez to $24M x 3 with deferrals that make the AAV $18M. Sox trade Bello ($9M AAV) Hicks ($10M AAV) + $4M for Paredes ($9M) & Sousa ($1M) The Sox save $7M, which allows the E Suarez signing and staying under line 3. 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Paredes 2B 3. L Duran DH 4. R Contreras 1B 5. R Suarez 3B 6. L Abreu RF 7. R Story SS 8. R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela CF Bench: Wong, Mayer, Campbell, DHam/Masa

Prospects are fine, but they have two nice LH'd RP'ers, so why not?

I'm not for trading Bello.

That was a contract whereby the company ended their pension plan in favor of a 401K plan with generous company matches. They stuck it to the senior employees badly. I recommended a no vote, while I was at the seniority whereby I got the largest raise possible. I voted no, because I planned on retiring with this company and knew top pay and pension was worth way more than an immediate big gain.

Romy & Campbell are decent depth options at DH. I kinda like the idea of keeping the best offensive team we can, and that includes Duran. I like Bello, too, but Bello for Paredes and King works for me. (Adding Janek would make it a no brainer.) 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Contreras 1B 3. L Duran DH 4. R Paredes 3B 5. L Abreu RF 6. R Story SS 7. R Narvaez C 8. L Mayer/R Romy 2B 9. R Rafaela C

BTV just dropped Paredes' value from about 13 to 8.5. Makes no sense. I can't see us giving Duran and Bello, and just one would be a gross overpay. BTV accepts: 44 Duran, 29 Bello, 3 DHam & 2 Wong for 39 Y Diaz, 9 Paredes, 7 King, 6 Abreu, 4 Sousa (that's their whole pen!)

I don't get many suggestions that come true. I think the last one was Cody Ross...LOL! But Paredes makes too much sense for the Sox, and the Sox have what HOU needs. It's only a question of how much HOU likes what we have to offer and we come up with something both sides can live with. Personally, I think Duran for Paredes and B King is a significant overpay, and I'm not sure why we should be expected to overpay. We have an OF logjam, and they have an infield logjam. If HOU added catcher prospect Janek or their other lefty RP'er Sousa, I'd jump at the deal. Maybe we could give them DHam, if they want or even add Sandlin or Mullins or the like. BTV says Rafaela for Paredes & BKing is closer to fair, and Abreu for the two as well. Just get it done. We'd have a much better offensive team by trading Rafaela, but we'd be better on defense with Rafaela, and Ceddanne has way more years of control. I'd be okay with trading whichever HOU wants/demands. Not counting Anthony... I like Ceddanne most due to years of control and defense in a difficult Fenway position. I like Abreu next due to great defense in Fenway's difficult RF and the extra year of control over Duran. I like Duran third, but that is not a slight on him or his skill level. He rates to be the best batter of these 3 for 2026. (Abreu might prove me wrong.) I'm not for handing him away. I'm super high on Paredes, despite having one less year of control than Duran.

Sorry. I edited my post as you were responding to the unedited one..

Not the Dodgers. Dodgers benefit from a unique agreement from their 2011 bankruptcy that significantly reduces their share of this pool, allowing them to keep a much larger portion (around $300 million annually) compared to other teams, creating a massive financial advantage.

AAV New to the 2026 budget (not on opening day 2025 budget or years of control were ending.) $26M Ranger $21M Contreras $16M Anthony $13M Chapman $11M Gray $10M Hicks $8M Campbell Sure, we lost the salaries of Devers, Buehler, Gio and others, but this new spending is anything but "cheap." It's even relatively cheap. Yes, our spending vs revenue ranking is still bad, but even that has improved, I'm sure of it. Yes, JH was cheap as hell from the Sale/Nate extension before 2019 to winter 2024-2025. He has NOT been after the start or the 2024 season. That may be shocking, but it it's fact, and it's 2 years in a row, now. Going forward, nobody knows. I would not be shocked, if we trade Bello, Sandoval, Duran and Campbell over the next year or two. I won't be shocked if we sign Suarez and keep al but one or two of the guys I just listed,

I would not trade Bello, either. I'd look to trade any or all of Sandoval, Hicks and Masa to save whatever it took to offer ESuarez a deal, with deferrals, if needed, that keeps us unde rthe third tax line. I think it may be doable, and it still fits the model that JH is too cheap to go over line 3. Plus, I'm not for intentionally going over line 3 and facing the draft and bonus pool monies to do so. I'd rather trade to a 3Bman, instead. I don't think it's absurd to think we might sign Suarez. More likely, we trade for Paredes and BKing or Sousa (both decent LH's RP'ers w HOU.)

I'm not sure, but in the case of the union I was part of there were heated discussions between factions of employees before they ultimately voted to pass the contract that gave the bottom 60% a huge raise and the top 10% nothing.

Agreed. SS would be better with Story at 2B, but Cora will need his arm broken to make it happen in 2026.

The majority of MLB players make less than $1.5M. They all vote. They could pressure their union leaders to push for this or they'll vote no.

I think Keaschall is more of a sure bet and plays excellent 2B defense. I'm not sure that's enough to balance out the other part of the trade, but I think I'd say yes. The addition of Ranger makes me feel better about trading away a future pitcher. 5 years of Ranger is a surer bet than 6 years of Tolle. (I also like Early more than Tolle, but it's close.)