moonslav59

Some wild cards in the Red Sox 2026 season will be... Kutter Crawford: After a very promising 2023 season that saw Crawford put up a 3.83 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, he took a step back in '24, despite leading the team in IP. The hope is he can regain the same stuff Merloni has been raving about all winter. Patrick Sandoval: You have to go back a bit farther than Crawford's timeline to find the time when Sandoval looked pretty sharp. Over 41 GS from '21-'22 he put up a 3.17 ERA/3.44 FIP/1.29 WHIP. He's done nothing in the last 3 years to show any signed he can pitch like that again, but that's what makes him a wild card. Justin Slaten: This guy doesn't seem to get the talk he maybe deserves. In his first two seasons in MLB, he has a 3.43 ERA but a 3.02 FIP and 1.04 WHIP. He got hurt, last season and saw his K/9 got from 9.4 to 6.6, so the doubts linger. He's got some nasty stuff. Let's hope he finds it, again. Tristan Casas: To me, this guy could be the answer to all our worries about the offense, and no, he does not need to have a career year. He just needs to stay healthy and repeat what he did from '23 to '24. He just turned 26, but is coming off major knee surgery and may not be ready until May or so. From '23-'24 he had a 127 OPS+ (.838 OPS.) Projected from thos 745 PAs to 650, this would be his season line: .256 33 86, with a nifty .357 OBP and .480 SLG. Marcelo Mayer: This highly touted top 4 draft pick from 2021 has dealt with a series of injuries that make us all wonder if it's an issue or just some bad luck that could pass by. He has struggled vs LHPs, even in the minors, and has to work through that issue to avoid a 2025 platoon (with Romy.) He's only 23 and still has a lot of promise with his bat, and he looked pretty decent on defense at 3B, last year. Maybe he's the 2Bman we've been waiting for for about a decade. Maybe not. Caleb Durbin: I could have counted Narvaez, too, as both were rookies in 2025, but to me Caleb is more of the wild card- perhaps just because I haven't seen him play and his height has always been a concern. Hitting .721 your rookie year is nothing to apologize for, and he had an .858 OPS in AAA, but in the lower levels, he struggled to get above .755. Maybe playing half his games in Fenway will give him a boost. One could call Contreras, Gray, Story and Chapman wild cards due to their ages, Abreu, Rafaela & Duran wild cards due to unknowns brought about by past inconsistent hitting stretches, and Bello due to his uneven metrics from '24 to '25. Tolle, Early and Campbell could also be high impact players in 2026, if they get a long enough look.

Is Justin Wilson still a Sox option?

I think this is what Cora uses as a template. He may swap Abreu and Story vs lefty-righty.

1, Duran v R/ Romy v L 2. Anthony 3. Contreras 4. Abreu v R/Story v L 5. Story v R/Abreu v L 6. Durbin 7. Mayer v R/ Duran v L 8. Narvaez 9. Rafaela

DUCK! An overripe tomato is on it's way towards you!

I can also see the Sox season going south, and I mean like Antarctica south. However, I do not think we need a perfect confluence of everybody having career or near career years to finish first or second in the ALE. There is good reason to think the Jays have a fine team, but they jumped up by 20 wins, last year. Their Pythagorean jump would have been by 14 games and finishing behind the Sox hypothetical win total. I've already beat up the Yanks in previous posts, but in short- they are aging, injury-prone, with several key players starting the season on the IL and did nothing this winter to get better. In fact, their motto is "Let's run it back." The O's made several bold moves, but started so far back, it's hard to know how high they will jump At worst the Sox stayed even, but they are hard to project, too, since they had a major turnover of players, this winter- most at the middle to bottom of the 40. They also continued their shift from Offense to defense (and pitching.) It should be a fun ALE to watch.

I think he already has te rets days planned... LOL. It doesn't matter if it's a LHP or RHP, if it's your day off, you get it. It doesn't matter if you're 10 for your last 20, either.

Durbin is less swing and miss and had a .334 OBP. That's not great, but it beats Story and vs LHPs, it beats Duran, too. Putting him up 1-2-3 would actually "lengthen the line-up more than having him 6th. IMO.

I can't see the Rangers coming close, despite the easier schedule.

I just wish Story had a better OBP.

He had a better "mix" than Tolle, at the time of his call-up and may always have one. I'm trying not to let a 4 game sample size convince me of anything, but he sure looked like a man who knew what he was doing on the mound.

No doubt, the Yanks have talent plus the promise of a Cole return, but they have some serious questions, too. Sometimes I think Sox fans apply different criteria for Yankees than our own Sox players. I don't have to guess how fans think of our own pitchers who missed the previous season: it's on full display, every winter, yet it seems like Cole is pegged to win the Cy Young and lead the Yanks to an improved record. How about Rodon? No doubt- a damn good pitcher, when healthy. He's 33 and has been healthy 3 of the last 4 seasons, so no questions here, right? Same thing with 32 year old Fried. Pencil both in for 30+ starts. Gil looks very promising- I agree-pencil him in, too, despite just 40 GS in 3 seasons. I wish Schlitter was on our team, and his 14 GS in 2025 -his rookie year- and that's more than Early had. I agree he's more of a sure thing than Tolle & Early, but is he a sure bet? Some of us expect regression from Chapman & Whitlock, but is there a reason to expect Bednar to improve? The Yanks had 8 players with 19+ HRs, last season and all are back. That's scary as hell to a fanbase panicking about our team's lack of power. Does a guy who never hit over 17 HRs before last year's 34 (Grisham) really project as a better power bat than Abreu? Maybe- maybe not. How about Bellinger? Is he the model of consistency? Here are his OPS numbers the 4 seasons prior to his ,813 in 2025: .789>.542>,654>.881>.751. Ben Rice looks for real, and maybe Volpe takes a step up. Chisholm hit more than twice as many HRs than 2024. Goldschmidt was in severe decline before they brought him back. Wells is more proven than Narvaez, but they are about the same age and have about the same career OPS. I hear a lot of expecting regression from Narvaez but not Wells. I do think the Yanks look tough, but they have a lot questions- like we do.

I'd have been shocked if you said anything less negative. Tomorrow the sun will rise.

I kinda liked Mayer at 2B, too, because of the platoon option with Romy, and also that Durbin looked real good at 3B, last year. I think a RHB up second makes the most sense, and modern line-up philosophy says put your best batter up 2nd. Since Anthony is leading off, I'm thinking Contreras is our second bast bat, at least v L or as a batter with pretty even splits (.791 career v R.) Story has some speed, but he doesn't get on base enough. Duran or Abreu? Both lefties. Contreras up 4th makes a lot of sense, too. Which of these is better? 1. Anthony L 2. Contreras R 3. Duran L (v R) Romy R (v L) 4. Abreu L 5. Story R 6. Durbin R (v R) Duran (v L) 7. Mayer L (v R) Durbin R (v L) 8. Narvaez R 9. Rafaela R or 1. Anthony L 2. Durbin R 3. Duran L 4. Contreras R 5. Abreu L 6. Story R 7. Mayer/Romy L/R 8. Narvaez R 9. Rafaela R

The #1, #2, #4 & #5 AL teams by projected fWAR play in the ALE. (4 of the top 9 in MLB!) Good thing we don't play the old schedule with super loaded divisional games anymore. We do still play them more, so that will suppress the win totals for all ALE teams, in theory. I think DET & SEA are legit contenders for 6 teams in the AL, but I think there is a significant drop off between DET and #7 HOU, and fWAR projections support that opinion. The O's at #5 are 2.0 away from NYY (#2) and 3.3 ahead of HOU at #7. The Tigers at #6 are 1.2 from BAL and 1.9 from BOS, but are 2.1 ahead of HOU. I don't see HOU beating out both BOS and BAL- maybe one but not both. (We better top BAL!!!)

No doubt on that. He averages about 1 SB per two times he reaches 1B, so a higher OBP would make him much more valuable. Hey, we shoulda got JBJ back in this deal!

With our issue with power, I though maybe Contreras and Abreu could play 160-162 games, if they DH'd 10 times, instead of playing 155-157 games and having 5-7 complete days off (maybe PH in 1 or 2 or 'em.) I'm fine with this choice. BTW, Cora did not say Contreras would never DH. He also did not say Duran would not. If everyone is healthy (except Casas), I think we might see this at DH... 80 Duran (75 in LF/CF) 42 Masa 40 Anthony (115 in LF/RF)

I have no issue projecting us 3rd or 4th. The issue was over the term you used. No biggie. Let's move on. I'd predict 2nd, but I'm not sure who is first. I see us, NYY and TOR as having about the same chance at 1st, 2nd and 3rd. I do think the O's have improved a lot, but they were so far behind, I just don't see a jump that high. Unlike TOR and NYY, they do have the youth to match or exceed ours.

You posted.... What finishing in 4th place "at best" means is that I believe it is more likely we will finish there more than anywhere else That's not the same as saying.... under "the most favorable circumstances" the FLOPS will IMO finish fourth. Under less than the most favorable circumstances they will finish dead last. "More likely than anywhere else" and "at best" are not equal statements. Had you said the first statement right away, nobody would have said a peep.

He needs to get on base to use 'em. Career .283 OBP. That "great" 2024 season saw a .303 OBP. 69 singles + BBs and 33 SBs.

Did I even hint that they needed to or should have protected him? You seem to read things into statements that just aren't there or even implied. The point was that he really wasn't viewed all that highly, until the time we decided to protect him, and even then, we only valued him more than someone like Paez.

So, the idea of keeping Abreu's bat in the line-up while he "rests" at DH is not going to happen. My guess we will face enough "tough lefties," where it's worth giving him a full day off, anyway.

Yes, I only get the Texas Roadhouse one. It's often complementary with a coupon.

Yes, after leaving him unprotected for Rule 5, the previous year. He'd probably make many teams' 40. He's not terrible or hopeless, but he's not really a "prize" in trade.

I think it's hard to value pitching smarts, and that's what I think Early's strength is. He just seems to know where to pitch to. He doesn't have nasty stuff, but it is pretty good. He can still get better. I realize a 4 start sample size is puny, but he was called up before Tolle for a reason.