moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I think DH'ing will help him do better. I think a year of adjusting to the league and the culture will help him do better in '24. Not having a massive negative dWAR will raise his WAR by itself.
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His numbers are worse, but his pay would be way less. If we trust the numbers in Japan enough to think Yamo is worth $325M, I'm thinking $90-110M for Imanaga looks like a decent risk. Yes, age adds to the risk. He turns 31 in SEPT. 2.66 in 159 IP in '23 2.04 in 159 in '22 2.83 in 149 in '21 Yamo turns 26 in AUG 1.16 in 171 '23 1.68 in 193 '22 1.39 in 194 '21 There is clearly a big gap in performance and a significant IP difference, but Imanaga's numbers look damn good.
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I realize the risk. I know I sound hypocritical to use a one year sample size, when I chide others for doing it, but it's not because of an injury history that Lugo's SP'er sample size is small. I like Stroman more than Lugo. I'm just not sure I like him 33% more ($60M/3 vs $45M/3.) I'm not sure it's all that "wild" to say the risk is "ABOUT" the same. 2023: fWAR 5.3 Gray 4.3 Monty 4.1 Snell (3.7 Luzardo & Cease and 3.4 Burnes & Castillo and 3.0 B Garrett) 3.0 ERod 2.8 Lugo 2.6 Wacha 2.6 Stroman (2.2 Crawford/2.1 Sale) 1.7 Lorenzen 1.0 Giolito xFIP- 83 Snell 85 Gray 86 Lugo 87 Burnes 88 Stroman 92 Monty 95 ERod 102 Wacha 104 Giolito ERA- 66 Gray 74 Monty 77 ERod 78 Wacha 86 Lugo 93 Stroman (and Bello) 94 Lorenzen 114 Giolito Yes, it's just one season, but it was a pretty good one.
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Looks fair. You'd prefer Giolito to Imanaga? (Using my numbers, their AAV is similar.) I agree, $50M/3 is too high for Giolito. I pretty much used MLBTR's projections and added to them.
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"about as much of a gamble." Stroman may get $60M/3 Lugo got $45M/3 Money is not the only factor in determined risk, but it is a major one. I thought you like Giolito. It's telling you did not use him as a comp to Lugo.
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1 year into a 5 year deal. I do agree, he did not meet expectations, but I would choose someone else as an example over him. Rusney was a good one. The best example is Price. It was our biggest FA signing of all time, and still is. He looked like as sure a bet as any SP'er to ever reach the FA market- steady, healthy, not too old... Some raised eyebrows at $217M/7, then. It turned out, they were right. The AAV was more than 50% higher than Manny and CC.) The next largest FA signing under JH: 142/7 Crawford- total bust 140/6 Story- not off to a good start and the 1/3 point of his deal 110/5 JD- looks like a decent to good deal 95/5 Pablito- horrific 88/4 HRam- bust 83/5 Lackey- not good (Dice-K and Rusney- not good and bust) It's understandable to not think free agency is our answer, but if we got a few more right, maybe some minds might change.
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I happen to think he signed for a reasonable rate. Sure, he was not a SP'er early in his career. I don't hold that against him. His signing would have been a gamble, and at that cost, about as much of a gamble as anyone else. I'm not pining for Lugo, but to me, he was less of a gamble than Giolito and pretty close to Stroman and Montas. Imanaga is a guess.
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If you had to pick one signing from below, which would it be? If you had $55M AAV to spend, how would you spend it? How about $75M? $240M/8 Snell $200M/8 Monty $110/6 Imanaga $60M/3 Stroman $50M/3 Giolito $40M/3 Clevinger $30M/3 Lorenzen $25M/2 Manaea $20M/2 Junis $16M/1 Montas $14M/1 Paxton $12M/1 Ryu $40M/3 Garver $20M/2 Merrifield or Amed Rosario $18M/2 Duvall $16M/1 J Turner or T Anderson $8M/1 M. A. Taylor My answers. The best singular deal might be Imanaga. I'd sign him as the best deal. $55M AAV: 25.0 Monty 18.5 Imanaga 10.0 Merrifield (or trade for Polanco) $75M 25.0 Monty 20.0 Stroman 18.5 Imanaga 10.0 Merrifield
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Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
moonslav59 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
LOL. True. -
It seems most of the largest signings never earned their pay. Several never came close. Some had limited success, but overall, did not meet expectations.
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I think fans realize, now, it's not on the GM, anymore. Some still might, but I think most can see the sham for what it is, now.
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Well, that is close to what our hopes have come to, right now. BTW, Sale has come somewhat close to that several times: GS/ERA 2012-2014 (3 year average: 28 GS and 2.79 ERA) 29/3.05 30/3.07 26/2.17 31/3.41 in 2015 2016-2018: (3 year average: 30 GS and 2.85 ERA) 32/3.34 32/2.90 27/2.11 2012-2018 average: 30 GS 2.91 ERA
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Exactly. Ben tilted too much to prospect hoarding. (I have always felt he would have traded some, had he been given 1 more year, but still...) DD tilted too much to the here and now, although I'm happy it worked for 3 years. Bloom was a repeat of Ben. It's hard to view Brez as another DD, but like Ben and Bloom, his spending limits may doom him to another unbalanced approach. BTW, had Ben and Bloom better spent what they were given, they may have lasted longer than 4 years. They both were given more than just peanuts.
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I'm with you, Bell. Two from ERod, Gray and Lugo would have given us some hope. It's not pie-in-the-s9ky to think we could have afforded 2-3 from: ERod Gray Lugo Imanaga Stroman Giolito (maybe a couple others) While 2-3 of these guys (plus Monty and Snell) are still available, we technically still have a chance, but who here believes we pull it off?
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It makes no sense to trade for a top pitcher, then extend him at market rates. Just overpay for a FA, now. (Monty or Snell plus one from Imanaga, Stroman, Giolito or perhaps Bauer/Montas/Clevinger.) Once Monty and Snell are gone, I'm in sell-off/ punt mode.
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I'm not sure. I thought I saw it somewhere.
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Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
moonslav59 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
So, any talk of what we were prepared to offer was yet another lie? (I'm not doubting it was a lie, but if they did have close to $300M to spend, why don't they still have that much for Monty and 1-2 others?) -
It will be rinse and repeat. We will sign such hopefuls as Frankie Montas and Giolito, hoping on rebounds, once again. Of course, one year deals will be the goal, again. Maybe we will load up on marginal talent in hopes we can dump some at the deadline.
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Once again, any hope of a miracle begins with the longshot hope that Sale starts 29 games with a sub 2.80 ERA.
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That might have been the plan since 2019, but they have just snowed us all along. Had they just owned up to it and had fire sales, yearly, we'd be much better situated, right now.
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Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
moonslav59 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I assume they gave their top offer or framework for a top offer, and told him, they will go no higher. -
"Too much" is a relative term. If we actually did offer Yamo $300M, we can afford Monty, but yes, at some point it gets to a level where it will be counterproductive, because we all know the Sox will have a rigid budget, so overpaying one guy means not paying for another or two others.
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I guess the question is about "way too much." If this is the new norm, we either have to join the party or find a way to build a winner without mega FA signings. We thought last winter's prices were "overpays." Some look pretty good, now, in light of skyrocketing salaries for the top tier players.
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The full throttle optimist view: Sign Monty, Imanaga and Stroman. Trade for Polanco and shoot for a playoff slot. (No top prospects traded.) The full throttle pessimist view: Trade Jansen, Martin, Sale (plus cash,) Pivetta, McGuire and O'Neill (at the deadline) for the best near ML ready prospects we can acquire- hopefully pitchers that fit Breslow's standards. Shoot for a top 5 draft pick and try to build a winner almost exclusively through our own system, because we ain't gettin' nuthin' from free agency. Of course, we will march down the middle and get nowhere, but I'd prefer selling off than continuing as is: half-ass, snow jobbing it.
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I hate the Celts, but damn straight!
