moonslav59

We do know Ref has the best OPPS vs LHPs of all returning Sox players. The best Duran has done was .749 in less than 50 PAs in '23.

I can't see Duran outhitting Ref vs LHPs, and his speed does not make up the difference. Ref only has value playing vs LHPs. If he won't be starting vs LHPs, then trade him.

So, you bench our best returning hitter vs LHPs, for this? Might as well trade Ref, if we bench him vs LHPs.

You are putting a lot of faith into a pretty small sample size vs LHPs in 2023. Duran... .570 career vs LHPs (.261 OBP) .445 2021-2022 v LHPs- in 70 PAs (.231 OBP) .749 in 2023 vs LHPs (.327 OBP in just 49 PAs) I do NOT think we should hand him the FT job, when we have Refsnyder: 1.005 in 2022 (.411 OBP in 73 PAs) .889 from .22-'23 (.422 OBP in 2018 PAs) Top Sox returning batters vs LHPs '22-'23: .889 Ref .784 Devers .783 Story .777 Casas .772 Dalbec & Reyes .746 Yoshida

I'm sure they would prefer Anthony. They might prefer Bleis & Abreu, instead. Some, here, feel Keller is a number 3 type, so it's not like we are getting an ace.

A 5 year "ticking clock." Keller has 2 years. Bednar has 3 years. Reynolds has 7 expensive years, whereas Duran will be cheap. (No way he stays with the Pirates for 7 years.)

BTV accepted these trades (not sure I'd do them:) Dugo, Yorke & Drohan for Donovan & Woodford Dugo & EValdez for Torres & Y Gomez Dugo & Bleis for Corbin Burnes Dugo & Jansen for Javier & Dubon Dugo & Schreiber for AJ Puk Dugo for Javier & S Dubin Dugo for M Dubon & M Tamarez Dugo, Walter & Jimenez for Gabe Speier Dugo, Yorke & Mata for Soto Duran & Mayer for M Keller, Bednar & B Reynolds Duran, Yorke & Mata for Dylan Cease Duran for Donovan & Matz Duran for Luis Garcia & Dubon & C Javier (HOU would say NO!)

A few near misses in the top 10, but no losses by any top 12 team. Big games remaining: Next week: GA @ TN (who just lost to Mizzou) WSH @ ORE St Thanksgiving weekend: ORE St @ ORE Ohio St @ Mich FSU @ FLA ALA @ AUB Then, conference games... (Likely match-ups) Ohio St/ Mich winner v Iowa GA v ALA FSU v Louisville WASH v ORE or ORE St/AZ TX vs OK, KSt or OK St

I guess I just avoid getting worked up about high K and high BB pitchers. You keep waiting for them to "gain control," and more often than not, they never do. Cabrera knows this is his major issue and must be working on it, but he's gotten worse- not better. 2021-2022 98 IP 3.77 ERA 9.5 K/9 4.8 BB/9 6.2 H/9 2023: 4.24 ERA 10.7 K/9 6.0 BB/9 6.6 H/9 Although DHern pitched way fewer IP, here was his line after 3 seasons: 79 IP: 3.66 ERAS 14.2 K/9 (one of MLB very best in history after 75 IP) 7.4 BB/9 7.0 H/9 I'm just not sold on E Cab. I think there are other SP'ers we could get for Duran that are not so volitile.

If we found a taker for Yoshida, I could see Chapman.

It's unrealistic. We'd be paying for him to play elsewhere. I'd rather hope he has adjusted and will thrive as a DH.

I guess 5GG did actually say "unlimited," so I missed that, but teams do use projected ceiling and floors to help determine what the expected performance values might be.

Of course a promising prospects low salary is a big part of trades for prospects, as much as the dumping of salary, too. With a team like the Sox, who are not trying to be like the Rays, when they make a trade like Beni for Cordero and 4 prospects, they went and immediately spent the savings on Renfroe (or Marwin, if you want to make Bloom look bad.)

Who said unlimited ceiling. Possible high ceiling, yes. You said ceilings and floors have no input into valuations.

All this doesn't change my concerns about Cabrera. If they threw in Berti, and we give up Ref, I might say yes. Your plan could create a situation where we sign Duvall, and have this... Yoshida DH and some LF Duvall LF Rafaela & Abreu CF Dugo RF Apparently the Astros need OF help, what about Duran for Javier or another Astros SP?

You really think ceilings and floors have "nothing to do" with BTV's prospect valuation or GM's evaluation of prospects?

Then every prospect projected to make min would have the same value. Of course the estimate future performance, which involves estimating ceilings vs floors.

I did value a few lower than BTV... Duran Bleis Crawford Yorke Schreiber Drohan Valdez Bernardino Meidroth E R-C & Alcantara (slightly) Paulino DHam Jimenez, Lugo, Bonaci, Kavadas I'm also super high on Cespedes.

I certainly share your concerns about Duran. Many of us were lamenting the fact that we did not deal him when his stock was high, before the start of 2023. Now, it is backup, and we are dragging our feet. Maybe, I'm clinging to false hopes, but the guy had a .350 OBP vs RHPs in 2023 with 22 SBs in 313 PAs. The 40 XBHs projects to over 80 per 650 PAs! His D improved to the point where he'd be fine as a LF'er. His .749 OPS v LHPs was better than most Sox batters. Maybe I'm fooled. Maybe not. His career splits: .762 v R (30 SB & 65 XBHs in 578 PAs) .570 v L (3 SB and 6 XBHs in 119 PAs) That is scary as hell. If any GM values Duran as BTV does ($30M plus), then trading him makes sense, too. I don't think a single poster, here, thinks Duran is the team's 5th most valuable player/prospect, which BTV values him as.

Here is my take on BTV's Red Sox values: 60 Mayer (45-50) 42 Anthony (50-55) 38 Casas (45-50) 34 Bello (35-40) 30 Duran (15-25) 29 Bleis (20-30) 27 Crawford (20-25) 22 Devers (25-30 due to contract) 20 Houck (20-25- one less year than Crawford) 18 Teel (30-45) 17 Yorke (5-15) 17 Rafaela (15-30) 14 Schreiber (7-12) 12 Whitlock (12-17) 11 Winckowski (7-12) 5.7 Drohan (1-5) 5.6 Pivetta (7-11, despite just 1 year left) 5.0 Verdugo (6-9) 4.8 Perales (4-7) 4.2 Valdez (2-5) 4.2 Romero (2-22) 4.2 Zanetello (2-17) 4.0 Wikelman (7-17) 3.7 Bernardino (1-5) 3.4 Abreu (4-14) 3.3 Mediroth (1-4) 3.2 Martin (5-9) 3.0 Urias (2-10) 2.7 Jansen (3-7) 2.7 ER-C (1-4) 2.6 Alcanatara (1-4) 2.5 Cespedes (10-40) 2.4 McGuire (2-5) 2.3 Mata (1-4, out of options) 2.3 Wong (3-10) 2.3 Paulino (1-3) 2.3 Monegro (3-15) 2.2 Jordan (2-5) 2.2 Bastardo (2-4) 2.2 Castro (3-5) 2.1 DHam (1-2) 2.0 Murphey (1-5) 1.9 Walter (1-4) 1.9 Brannon (1-8) 1.9 Anderson (2-10) 1.9 Jo Garcia (2-10) 1.8 Jimenez (0-1) 1.7 Lugo (0-1) 1.7 Bonaci (0) 1.7 Hickey (2-5) 1.6 Dobbins (2-3) 1.4 Guerrero (1-3) 1.3 Rogers (2-3) 1.2 Robertson 1-3) 1.2 Kavadas (0-2) Notables under 1.0: 0.8 Z Kelly (1-3) 0.5 Gambrell (1-7) 0.5 Song (1-7) 0.5 Rosier (1-4) 0.4 Luis de la Rosa (1-3) 0.4 S Scott (1-2) 0.4 Hoppe (1-3) 0.4 Paez (1-2) 0.4 Troye (1-3) 0.0 Refsnyder (1-2) -0.6 Yoshida (+5 to -15) -10.3 Sale (+5 to -27) -80.0 Story (+5 to -40)

If Duran's BTV value is correct to a few GMs, we can get better than Cabrera in return.

1. Being the long side platoon means 400+ PAs, if he never starts vs a LHP- maybe 450-500, if he PH's or PRs and stays in the game. 2. He showed he could hit LHPs, okay last year, and could morph into a FT LG'er. 3. He has speed that could help as PR when he does not start. 4. I'm not high on Cabrera. I might trade Dugo for him. 5. I did not say start the season with a CF platoon. I said let one earn the job. I put "platoon?" in parenthesis, afterwards as a possibility. I'm not sure why, if all are on the 26, two platoons would be so awful. The two that are sitting might end up playing in many of the games they started on the bench. If Abreu or Rafaela start in AAA, of course, there would be no platoon. With Duvall in RF over Dugo, the L-R splits should be way more evened out. (Dugo probably should have been platooned, if we had a decent defensive RF'er who hit LHPs, well.)

Yoshida DH Duran-Ref platoon in LF Rafaela/Abreu work out who plays CF mostly. (Platoon?) Swap RHB for Dugo in RF. (Duvall?) It's not rocket science.

It's simple. Yoshida to DH near FT. Duran is fine in LF and may continue improving to the point where he might be okay as a back-up CF'er. If he sucks vs LHPs, we have Refsnyder, who I would start the season as a LF platoon with Duran. Duran could be a very nice leadoff hitter vs RHPs, which is about 120-125 games a year- starting. He could PH vs RHPs or PR late in games. I realize his value seems to jump all over the place, and he could drop, again in 2024. This could be the "sell high moment" we felt we missed a few years back. I get the point that Dugo is a better defender and plays RF. But he has just one year left, and we can't platoon Ref in RF, without a big hit on D.

While puffing on a magic dragon.