moonslav59

Homer!

I think most games... LF O'Neil CF Duran RF Abreu but maybe... LF Duran CF Rafaela RF O'Neill

ST OPS Leaders in MLB (30+ PAs) 1.476 O Cruz (6 more PAs than Wong) 1.302 Wong 1.271 A Kirk 1.257 M Dubon 1.252 Dane Myers 1.251 C Cowser 1.243 A Hicks 1.241 Rizzo 1.219 MJ Melendez 1.214 J Polanco 1.200 Merrifield 1.198 W Langford 1.196 Springer 1.175 Devers

Some Starting Pitchers who signed minor league deals, this winter: Domingo German Jake Odorizzi Brad Keller Eric Lauer Carlos Carrasco Julio Teheran Danny Duffy Zach Davies Chase Anderson Jose Urina

I think their belief is that huge contracts to a few bring up the next level contracts, but I'm not so sure. Look at this winter: it was highlighted by a couple massive deals, and the rest were at or under projected contract costs and years.

Much like the rest of the business world, there seems to be a very wide pay scale. I still wonder why the player's union did not fight harder for raising the min wage more than it did and improving the arb system than keeping huge contracts for the very few well protected.

If he & Rafaela bust out, this year could get very interesting. (We might also be able to trade Duran for a pitcher or O'Neill for something useful.)

Some STing Numbers: OPS w 25+ PAs 1.302 Wong (8 XBHs) 1.175 Devers 1.022 Sogard (not on 40) 1.000 Story .965 Westbrook (not on 40) .923 O'Neill .907 Rafaela (2nd most PAs in ST) 8 XBHs .866 Dalbec (2nd in HRs and RBIs to Devers) .849 Duran .828 Contreras (not on 40) .713 Casas .694 EVladez .670 R Gonzalez (4 SBs) .666 Reyes .653 Yoshida .639 Abreu (most PAs in ST) .637 McGuire .329 DHam .322 Yorke Best ERA 12+ IP (K:BB) 1.98 Crawford (13:0) 2.40 Houck (16:3) 3.45 Whitlock (16:2) 3.77 Criswell (13:3) 3.95 Winckowski (8:2) 4.85 Bello (11:5) 5.25 Pivetts (13:3) 4-11 IP 0.00 Hagenman (8:1) 0.00 Campbell (7:2) 0.00 Bernardino (4:1) 0.00 Slaten (6:1) 1.77 Weissert (9:3) 1.93 Walter (4:1) 2.25 Booser (8:0) 2.25 Luetge (10:3) 2.25 Benitez (14:5) 2.57 Joely (9:3) 3.86 Murphy (11:4) 4.95 Shugart (4:2) 8.31 Giolito (2:4) 8.44 Jacques (6:4)

Who starts and will end up starting will be a big part of how good our pen will be. With Gio down, another good pen arm goes to the rotation. We already robbed Crawford, Whitlock and even Pivetta from last year's pen. For argument's sake, let's say opening day sees this: IL: Giolito, Mata, Murphy & Jansen Rotation: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck & Whitlock The pen might be... Closer: Martin 8th inning: Bernardino, Campbell 7th inning: Slaten, Weissert, Luetge Long Relief: Winckowski, Criswell Minor league depth: Long: Fitts, Walter, Gambrell Short: Kelly, Joely, Hagenman, Jacques, Guerrero among others

I think we could have gotten some value for Jansen had we pitched in $2-6M of the $16 owed him. Maybe that $10-12M saved could have helped us sign Monty. (yeah, right, huh?)

I realize Abreu may very well flop or become nothing more than a 4th OF'er type, but I still have hopes he becomes a good to very good OF'er. He's only a year older than Rafaela, who seems to have much more upside due to being so raw and having great defensive skills. Abreu is already pretty disciplined, despite having his share of K's. He had a .372 OBP in the minors (over .390 in AA and AAA.) He was one of the best hitters in all of minor league baseball in 2022. I think his "upside" is often underappreciated, but of course he may end up not being all that good, too. In a season like we are looking at for the Sox in 2024, I would look forward to seeing Rafaela near FT in CF and Abreu near FT in RF, even if just to see what they can offer. Of course, that would force bench time or a trade on one from Duran or O'Neill (or maybe Yoshida,) but I'd be more interested. (I may be alone on this.)

No. My position is that September is the "best case scenario." That does not say I think 2024 is his year.

Many players got less or way less than what they wanted, or what "experts" projected. Snell is one case. This winter has shown that most teams are spending less on free agency. MLBTR reported "...an offseason that has seen a billion-dollar decrease in spending by major league teams..."

True. I thought the soxprospects podcast said they felt Tell had the best chance of a 2024 call-up over Anthony and Mayer.

I'll bet he doesn't get 5+. I doubt he gets 4 with a 5th year team option.

One dog told me once, he was color blind, but I think he was racist.

Agreed- best case: Boston in September.

It's easy for things to go wrong oir horribly wrong, this season, but we have a lot of players with some serious upside or the potential to have amazing career years. There are various ideas on what years prime is, but a wide range might be 26-31 (maybe 32.) Here is where our top players fit in that range. I'm putting our best players at the top of the list: Pitchers: 24 Bello, 27 Crawford, 31 Pivetta 27 Houck, 27 Whitlock, 29 Giolito (IL), 36 Jansen, 37 Martin 25 Winckowski, 26 Campbell, 32 Bernardino, 35 Hendriks 26 Slaten, 25 Murphy, 27 Criswell 24 Mata, 29 Kelly, 29 Weissert Everyday Players: 27 Devers, 24 Casas 31 Story, 30 Yoshida, 23 Grissom, 27 Duran, 28 O'Neill 27 Wong, 23 Rafaela, 24 Abreu 30 Reyes, 29 McGuire, 25 EValdez, 32 Refsnyder Hendriks might be the only player over 32 on the 2025 roster.

I still think Monty does not get over 4 years and will likely get 3- maybe with a 4th yr option and buyout. To me, Monty should be good in all 3 years, and would be helpful to a contending team in 2025 and 2026, while helping make this year's team a lot better. If things go right, he could be the difference maker in '24.

2 years! Good job, BorA$$! Not much of a gamble for any team. If the deal does not have a no-trade clause, he could be easily traded, if healthy.

Not that I know of. Found this... https://set.adelaide.edu.au/news/list/2019/08/20/why-is-the-colour-blue-so-rare-in-nature#:~:text=Part%20of%20the%20reason%20is,the%20light%20to%20appear%20blue.&text=For%20plants%2C%20blue%20is%20achieved,an%20artist%20would%20mix%20colours.

Wong is hitting 1.300 in ST. I think he and McGuire are undervalued.

Big Science!

Skip ahead to about 4:50...

Well, I was not thinking of going opening day to opening day, until you brought up the Story example. I was looking at the discussion in terms of who we have that is totally new, and if they project as upgrades or not. In system players improving or playing more is certainly another major factor, but I viewed that as a separate issue. I see a lot of room for "upgrades" from 2023 to 2024 on returning and advancing players. I also think guys like Devers could very well have a career year that blows away his previous best. Unlike others, I think our defense might very well go from 30th to 15th or 16th. I think our O will be top 10 with minimal injuries or top 12, otherwise. I think the same with our pen, but that will likely depend on how many pitchers are poached by rotation needs. The rotation will make or break this team, and right now, I'm not high on this rotation. I wasn't all that high, even with Gio. It certainly has a lot of potential, and I think our 6th and 7th SP'ers are not all that bad. I'm looking forward to watching this team. We have a lot of pre-prime and early prime players, in fact it is almost the whole 40 man roster, minus 3-4 guys with only Martin and Jansen holding key roles- post prime. I know it's not fun watching my team lose, but with expectations so low, maybe that will be an easier pill to swallow. Who knows? Maybe we can suprise, or at least stay in the race until mid August or September.