moonslav59

IP are valuable. From ages 35-37, out of 150 SP'ers with 200+ IP, he ranks... 107th in ERA- at 105 104th in fWAR at 3.2 (1.1 per season) 72 in xFIP at 3.99 (70oth in FIP) 69th WHIP at 1.24 31st in K-BB% at 19.2% He looks average, when healthy, but he's 38. I'd be pissed, if we spent that much on him, and fell short of signing others by that amount.

Good point. Had Pivetta not gone back to the rotation, he might have ended up with 110-120 IP as a RP'er over the final 5 months. I could see Crawford taking over that role in 2024, if Pivetta is our 5th SP.

Okay, but why misquote me? I said "easily 100-140" for Whit and Craw, not "easily 140." I was thinking 100 for Whit and 140 for Crawford, but I should have anticipated the fact-check. Maybe, I over-estimated the IP or the "easiness" part of it, but I could see Monty with 190-200, Crawford with 140-150 and Whitlock with 100-120- totalling 450. Maybe, it'ds not so easy, but I did not say just "easily 140."

38 year old, Kenta Maeda signed with DET for $14M in '24 and $10M in '25. $24M/2 for a guy who has only pitched over 154 IP once (his rookie year in 2016) and has not pitched over 107 IP since 2019. He missed 2022, entirely. His 2021+2023 numbers: 12-13 4.44 1.23 WHIP 4.06 FIP 96 ERA+ 211 IP (9.8 K/9: 2.6 BB/9) Seems a bit high, right?

Could be some shake-ups in the College Championship set-up. My guess is the rankings will be like this before the conference championship games: 1. Georgia 12-0 2. Michigan 12-0 3. Washington 12-0 4. Florida St. 12-0 5. Ohio St 11-1 6. Oregon 11-1 7. Texas 11-1 8. Alabama 11-1 Here are the game that matter: Friday #4 Washington v #6 Oregon (WSH wins, and they're in/ Oregon wins, and they'd be borderline) Saturday #1 Georgia v #8 Alabama (GA wins, and they're in. ALA wins, and it's a close call for them) #3 Michigan v #17 Iowa (MI wins, they're in. IA wins, ORE, Ohio St, ALA or Texas may sneak in.) #4 Florida St. v #10 Louisville (FSU wins, and they're in. Louisville cannot get in with a win.) #7 Texas v #20 OKL St. (Texas needs to win and still may not get in, even if the top 4 teams lose.) If 1 top 4 team loses, the door is open for a few teams, and it depends on which of the 4 loses. Bubble teams: Oregon should make the top 4 by beating #3 WASH. Alabama might make it by beating #1 GA, but they'd have to pass 3 other current 1 loss teams. Ohio St. might have the best chance to make it, if the team that loses is NOT Michigan. They may not pass GA, if GA loses a close one to ALA. Texas probably cannot make it with just 1 or 2 top 4 losses They should not pass #5 Ohio St, when both do not play. Do they deserve to pass FSU? I'd say yes, but not GA, MI or WSH, even if all lose. (Also, if WSH loses, it means #6 ORE wins, and #6 ORE would stay ahead of TEX.) I think Texas is out cold. 7 teams are in it, with Ohio St and AL borderline. College football is really quite funny. Ohio ST was 2nd best in the nation. They travel to #3 MI and lose by 3 (about the home field advantage in betting.) They now have an almost impossible chance to make the top 4. Maybe If FSU and WSH lose, they will pass both, but how do they pass ORE, who would have just beaten WSH, while Ohio St was idle? If MI loses, theyy and Ohio St would have 1 loss, and unless you are like the ND vs FSU tie, head-to-head "always is the tiebreaker." Should be a fun weekend. To me, anyone but Alabama and Ohio St!

Agreed. MLBTR had this, however... Evaluators who have seen Rodriguez suggest he could stick as a starting pitcher, with one indicating he could command between $30MM and $50MM as a free agent. While MLBTR was able to talk to one evaluator who backed that assessment up, information has otherwise been scant on Rodriguez so far this offseason.

Crawford is never starting in AAA. I think I said Schreiber or Bernardino might have to, if everyone was healthy and Mata made the 26. Whitlock and Crawford can easily get 100-140 IP from the pen. Add that to 180 from Monty, and we are near 450 IP, total. I like that better than 180-200 from Burnes, 80-120 from Murphy and 60-70 from Kelly or Robertson. (maybe 300-350 IP)

All true, and if not all about 2024, then maybe. The comp looks like this to me: Burnes, Kelly & N Robertson/Murphy vs Monty, Whitlock & Crawford The last group could give is 450+ IP.

Burnes > Monty, Crawford and Whitlock? I'm not sure I agree, but I really like Birnes. (Not sure how you figure the pay differential, as someone would take Crawford and Whit's place on the roster.)

Interesting to see STL already sign 3 SP'ers: Gray, Lynn and Gibson- not that the last 2 were highly sought after.

The second part of that sentence is the kicker. How much better is he? Is the differential in skill worth the pay difference PLUS Crawford and Whitlock? Monty, Whitlock & Crawford > Burnes ???

Bieber's arm issue is scary, otherwise, he'd be a no-brainer.

I think MIL takes that deal. I'd prefer Yorke and one of Cutter/Whitlock.

I don't know much about their 3 young OF'ers, but none had very good numbers in MLB in 2023, and the chances that all 3 do well is not great. I think they'd want Rafaela or maybe Duran. I'm not sure about Yorke. It's hard to know how much GMs value Wikelman, Perales, Drohan or Mata.

If we could get Burnes at a discount rate, then it's worth it. Burnes may be better than Snell and Monty, but not by enough to give up top prospects for s light upgrade and a bigger budget hit.

Yorke and EValdez play 2B not SS. They may be looking to trade Yelich, next, so maybe they want Duran or Rafaela.

Correction: Burnes has a BTV of 32.0 not 38.4.

Bleis is probably too far away to be a major Brewer target, so maybe Duran plus another significant player. BTV values: 60 Mayer 42 Anthony (I'd rather trade Mayer than Anthony or Teel.) 38 Casas 34 Bello 30 Duran 29 Bleis 27 Crawford 20 Houck 18 Teel 17 Yorke 17 Rafaela 14 Schreiber 12 Whitlock 11 Wink BTV has Burnes at 38.4, so a trade of Duran + Wink fits, or .... Rafaela + Yorke (maybe the best offer) Duran, EValdez + Drohan Duran, Perales + Meidroth Not sure MIL accepts any of these.

But then why not sign a pitcher and save the prospects?

I'd lean towards A, too, but it's close. I'd prefer Monty and Burnes. I seem to be the board's pessimist, this winter. My guess is, we get E Cabrera via trade and sign Seth Lugo.

I really like Burnes, too. Trading for one year guys scares the bejesus out of me, especially if 2024 isn't an "all in" year, or if we don't extend him. Maybe I'm wrong, but the velo charts on fangraphs seems to show a slight decline in velo from '22 (94-96) to '23 (93-95): https://www.fangraphs.com/players/corbin-burnes/19361/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2021&end=2023&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FC&ymin=&ymax=

I don't know Japanese, but it would be interesting to know what he actually said and the most common translation. Certainly, the reason it was corrected is obvious.

Apparently, the translation was messed up. The comment was not technically "retracted," as I stated before. All things equal, he'd probably prefer a teammate who was Japanese, IMO.

Again, it depends on your view of what a "true #2" is. The guy has been top 30 in just about every significant category from 2021-2023. He'd be the best pitcher on 10-15 teams and the second best on almost all the rest. To me, that's a number 2, at worst. That being said, I hope he's the second best pitcher we add, this winter.

Apparently, the Sox were not "in on" Nola or Gray and are not "in on" Cease trade talks, either. They have been linked to Yamo, Snell & Monty, while reportedly seeking to trade for a top SP, perhaps Burnes, Bieber or Glasnow. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/latest-on-red-soxs-pitching-targets.html