moonslav59

The stubbornness on overpaying for SP'ers has been a long-standing issue. I keep waiting for the next Price or Lackey, but I've lost hope.

He'd be the #2 on 5-10 teams, the #3 on another 5-10 teams and the #4 on 5-10 of the remaining 15 teams.

This guy keeps a straight face! Add Crawford and SEA still says no.

Apparently, the Mets have made Yamo their top focus. That could leave Snell and Monty for the Rangers, Yanks, Sox and others to fight over.

I never thought we'd be serious contenders for him, even if we knew we'd go up to the second tax line. That would be about $72M. $287M AAV SP1 $25M AAV SP2 $12M 2B or OF (Big RHB) $8M OF or 2B

I'm really not one to think improving a rotation by upgrading your #5 is worth the resources. I'd prefer to add a #1 or 2 and push our current #4 into the 5 slot. I do see Wacha as a #3-4, so he would not be a bad addition, especially if he was our #5, but we'd have to add 2 better pitchers plus him to make him the 5. 1. Yamo 2. Monty 3. Bello 4. Sale (Houck/Crawford) 5. Wacha Out of Houck, Crawford, Pivetta and Whitlock, the decision on who starts is not easy. The less we have to use in te rotation the better for the rotation AND the pen. I think Whitlock is my first choice for total pen duty. We need to keep him healthy and hope he can return to what he gave us back in 2021. Crawford and Houck are neck and neck for my second pen choice. I think Crawford can go deeper in starts, but Houck can do better over the first 18 batters. Assuming we add two inning eater SP'ers and with the pen as deep and strong as it should be, I'd start Houck and go with Crawford in the pen. Pivetta is my first choice, out of these 4 to start. He gives innings and has been a pretty good #5 in all 3 seasons with us. He's had 3 of the team's top 11 fWARs as a SP'er since 2021. That's 3 years and 15 rotation slots.

The change in routine might have hurt, too.

Agreed. I've argued for years that Pivetta is one of MLBs best #5s. The problem is, he's had to be out #3 for too long. I've never been one to think stacking a team with #3's to 4's is a winning strategy, but if we add two solid SP's and make Bello our #3, I'm fine with having 4-5 guys with "3-4" profiles fighting for the 4-5 slots. I know the whole numbering of slots bothers some, and out of those who don't mind the concept, there is a wide disparity on how to determine who is a #1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, but based on the 450 SP'ers who had more than 80 IP in a specific season from 2021 to 2023, here is how their fWARs broke down by slots. 3 seasons x 30 SP'ers (1 per team) = grouped by 90's and Split Seasons #1: 3.3 to 7.5 #2: 2.1 to 3.3 #3: 1.3 to 2.1 #4: 0.6 to 1.3 #5: negative fWAR to 0.6 Thus is the state of MLB rotations, these days, on average. Top Sox fWARs by SP'ers since 2021 (60+ IP) #1 seasons: 2 5.7 Nate in '21 3.9 ERod in '21 #2's: 3 2.2 Pivetta in '21 (It's no wonder '21 was the year we did well.) 2.2 Crawford '23 2.1 Sale '23 #3's: 4 1.8 Hill '22 1.6 Bello '23 1.5 Wacha '22 1.5 Pivetta '22 (Note how Pivetta is the only repeat pitcher in the top 10.) #4s: 5 1.0 Houck '23 1.0 Nate '22 1.0 Paxton '23 1.0 Pivetta '23 (3 seasons in the top 11 on the team) 0.6 Perez '21 #5's: too many to count 0.5 Richards '21 0.4 Crawford '22 0.0 Winck '22 So, in the last 3 seasons, we have seen these comparative performances: 2 number 1s 3 number 2s 4 number 3s 5 number 4s 3+ number 5s Per season averages: 1 number 1 or 2 1 number 3 2 number 4s 1+ number 5s We basically had an extra #4 and no #1.

The sample size of Japanese pitchers in MLB in their primes has certainly grown over the years, but it still pales compared to US and Latin American grown SP'ers. We'd need a percentage of success rate to see how much the country of birth adds to the risk factor. The Japanese leagues have improved since Nomo and Dice-K. The scouting has improved, there, too. No doubt, Yamo is a hug gamble. His age makes him very unique. In the last 30 years (1994-2023,) here are the top fWAR ranked Japanese SP'ers and their rankings: 49. Darvish 34.4 83. Nomo 27.5 (there might be 830 US born pitchers to 1 Japanese born pitcher in MLB since '94. Okay, that is likely hyperbole.) 109. Kuoda 22.4 (138. Ryu 20.0+ is from Korea, if we want to pivot to Asian pitchers.) 154. Tanaka 18.8 (Basically, about 1 in 40 of the top SP'ers- in the last 30 years are from Japan. 1 in 30 are from Asia.) 231. Maeda 14.3+ 283. Ohtani 11.8+ (286. W-Y Chen 11.7 from Taiwan) 290. Sirotka 11.4 301. Ohka 10.9 (7 in the top 300.) (C-M Wang 10.1 from Taiwan) 353. Dice-K 8.7 I might have missed some, as I just scrolled through the fangraphs' list. Since much of total career WAR is based on IP, starting their MLB careers laters than other nationalities must factor into lower WAR numbers- career.

We need 3, but adding 2 solid pitchers might be enough. 3. Bello 4. Sale or Houck 5. Pivetta or Crawford

We have 6 everyday players who can hit and not defend. We don’t need a DH. Devers Casas Yoshida Duran Refsnyder EValdez

With the way Devers plays D, one could argue we will start paying $300M to another DH in 24.

Evidence of the Sham.

Agreed. With 2 TJs, the team should get the opt out!

Think several lesser upgrades on O. You guys could sign Chapman and trade someone else to upgrade another position. Stanton at DH might kill your O or have a rebound and make a big difference. One thing for sure. Both our teams need some major additions.

Bleis has the "tools" but has a very small sample size. Yes, at 19, his ceiling may be high, but I'd put my money on Anthony and Teel over him. I also think Anthony and Teel may very well out perform Mayer in MLB. It's hard to know. Stats aren't everything, but I like the ceilings of Anthony and Teel, too. (Also, Cespedes.) Anthony is 19 and has 574 PAs in the minors. .849 OPS 1.020 in AA (44 PA) .981 in A+ (245) Bleis is 19 and has 445 PAs in the minors. .761 career in minors .607 in A- (142 PAs) .895 (167) Teel is 21 and has just 114 career PAs .977 OPS .979 in 3 seasons of college (812 PAs) Mayer is 20 w 885 PAs .819 in minors .609 in AA (190) .890 A+(164-23) .828(116 '22)

Very true, and the Sox have their share of well-hyped busts, but our record with everyday players is pretty good. Since the Devers call up in 2017, there has been a lull, but we had some draft penalties, the COVID draft and a recent GM focusing on HS players early in his drafts. It seems counterintuitive to think we've done better with pitching from Devers to Casas, but have a look-see: Summer '17 to Summer '23 (Grad dates) Everyday players: Duran '22 Wong '22 (Betts trade) Dalbec '21 Pitchers: Bello '22 Houck '21 Whitlock '21 (Yankee farm system- Rule 5) Crawford '22 Winckowski '22 (Beni trade) Casas and beyond... (May 2023>>>) Everyday: Casas EValdez '23 (Vaz trade) Pitchers: Bernardino (SEA system- waivers) Murphy Kelly Robertson (Kike trade) Jacquez (MiLB Rule 5) Soxprospects has our 6 top prospects as non pitchers. Our pitchers are... 7. Perales 9. Wikelman 15. Drohan (I think overrated) 20. Monegro 6 in a row from 23-28 7 out of 9 from 31-39

Throw over 95 mph as a starter?

I just have a sneaky feeling Cespedes is going to be very special.

When did Nate come back with hat in hand? (He signed with TEX Dec 27th.) We signed... 12/8 Martin 12/13 Jansen 12/15 Yoshida 1/6 Turner 1/12 Kluber 1/24 Duvall Any 2 of these last 3 equal the AAV Nate got. Nate vs Kluber & Duvall Nate vs Kluber & Turner

There wasn't a lot left on the table, in terms of the tax line, so I think he just spent it on non pitchers and the pen. As it turned out, our everyday players were lacking on D and over the second half on O, too. I doubt it mattered, but the concept of ignoring the rotation for 4 years bugs the hell out of me. Brez better change that.

I also get the context. When you slash like we did after 2019, and that was after letting Kimbrell and Kelly walk without replacing them, in kind, spending a lot to slowly catch back up is not a winning strategy. We have spent a lot, though, and if JH was just about making money, he'd have spent less. I understand the theory that he needs to spend "just enough" to give fans the appearance of being competitive, so they buy season tickets, game tickets and NESN subscriptions, in order to increase revenues, but I'm not sure he pulled that off. I think the success of 2021 gave JH some leeway to skimp more than he might normally have done. Was Story and Yoshida part of the "scam?" The Devers extensión? Those are expensive scams. I can't see us being highly competitive in 2024 without going up to the second tax line. Maybe 2025, with the loss of Sale might be different.

I can live with that, but a couple GMs have gone nutty (TEX & NYM.) I will not ding JH for not matching them, but I do think he should have done more. How much more? Maybe we are closer to agreement than we know. We also had a GM who ignored fixing the top of the rotation, especially after ERod left. Perez & Richards Wacha & Hill Kluber & Paxton I don't expect 100% perfection on FA signings, but that wasn't even trying.

I think Rafaela will be an okay MLB hitter (.700-.725 through prime years.) I would guess the odds are he does worse than this over better.

Our last trade for a real good pitcher was Nate in the summer of 2018. Before that, it was a regular thing.