moonslav59
-
Posts
103,416 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
128
Content Type
Profiles
Boston Red Sox Videos
2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking
Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
News
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by moonslav59
-
Okay, add the best FA you think we can get for the $15M differential. Is it still "wild talk?"
-
Maybe Luzardo or Garrett. Maybe Castillo, if SEA wants to cut the budget. I'd rather just overpay Monty and keep the prospects. Make minor trades for guys like Polanco.
-
Love this!
-
I think Bloom knew, too.
-
If you add the Pablito and HRam deals together, nobody can claim JH tied Ben's hands, that winter. The next winter saw the Price signing (under DD.) What Ben failed to do, beyond making good on one big signing, was pull the trigger on a major prospect trade. BTW, two of Ben's major additions, HRam and Porcello both did way better in DD's first year than Ben's last year. Flip those two seasons, and maybe Ben gets another season as GM.
-
Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
moonslav59 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
What does Merloni have to say about it? That's who counts! -
I did add a year to MLBTR's projection. Maybe instead of raising the projection from $85M/5 to $110M/6, I could have gone $100M/5- or even $95M/5.
-
It's not like Lugo sucked before '23. He just did not start. I know it's a risk, but he'll likely cost $15M/3 less than Stroman, and I have greed Stroman is better, but the risk factor, which included money spent makes it "about" the same. To you, that is "wild talk?" For all we know, Stroman may get 4 years or $66M/3. Would it still be a major risk differential? I know you are not high on Merrifield, but what if Lugo + Merrifield costs as much as Stroman. Is the "risk factor" about the same?
-
I think DH'ing will help him do better. I think a year of adjusting to the league and the culture will help him do better in '24. Not having a massive negative dWAR will raise his WAR by itself.
-
His numbers are worse, but his pay would be way less. If we trust the numbers in Japan enough to think Yamo is worth $325M, I'm thinking $90-110M for Imanaga looks like a decent risk. Yes, age adds to the risk. He turns 31 in SEPT. 2.66 in 159 IP in '23 2.04 in 159 in '22 2.83 in 149 in '21 Yamo turns 26 in AUG 1.16 in 171 '23 1.68 in 193 '22 1.39 in 194 '21 There is clearly a big gap in performance and a significant IP difference, but Imanaga's numbers look damn good.
-
I realize the risk. I know I sound hypocritical to use a one year sample size, when I chide others for doing it, but it's not because of an injury history that Lugo's SP'er sample size is small. I like Stroman more than Lugo. I'm just not sure I like him 33% more ($60M/3 vs $45M/3.) I'm not sure it's all that "wild" to say the risk is "ABOUT" the same. 2023: fWAR 5.3 Gray 4.3 Monty 4.1 Snell (3.7 Luzardo & Cease and 3.4 Burnes & Castillo and 3.0 B Garrett) 3.0 ERod 2.8 Lugo 2.6 Wacha 2.6 Stroman (2.2 Crawford/2.1 Sale) 1.7 Lorenzen 1.0 Giolito xFIP- 83 Snell 85 Gray 86 Lugo 87 Burnes 88 Stroman 92 Monty 95 ERod 102 Wacha 104 Giolito ERA- 66 Gray 74 Monty 77 ERod 78 Wacha 86 Lugo 93 Stroman (and Bello) 94 Lorenzen 114 Giolito Yes, it's just one season, but it was a pretty good one.
-
Looks fair. You'd prefer Giolito to Imanaga? (Using my numbers, their AAV is similar.) I agree, $50M/3 is too high for Giolito. I pretty much used MLBTR's projections and added to them.
-
"about as much of a gamble." Stroman may get $60M/3 Lugo got $45M/3 Money is not the only factor in determined risk, but it is a major one. I thought you like Giolito. It's telling you did not use him as a comp to Lugo.
-
1 year into a 5 year deal. I do agree, he did not meet expectations, but I would choose someone else as an example over him. Rusney was a good one. The best example is Price. It was our biggest FA signing of all time, and still is. He looked like as sure a bet as any SP'er to ever reach the FA market- steady, healthy, not too old... Some raised eyebrows at $217M/7, then. It turned out, they were right. The AAV was more than 50% higher than Manny and CC.) The next largest FA signing under JH: 142/7 Crawford- total bust 140/6 Story- not off to a good start and the 1/3 point of his deal 110/5 JD- looks like a decent to good deal 95/5 Pablito- horrific 88/4 HRam- bust 83/5 Lackey- not good (Dice-K and Rusney- not good and bust) It's understandable to not think free agency is our answer, but if we got a few more right, maybe some minds might change.
-
I happen to think he signed for a reasonable rate. Sure, he was not a SP'er early in his career. I don't hold that against him. His signing would have been a gamble, and at that cost, about as much of a gamble as anyone else. I'm not pining for Lugo, but to me, he was less of a gamble than Giolito and pretty close to Stroman and Montas. Imanaga is a guess.
-
If you had to pick one signing from below, which would it be? If you had $55M AAV to spend, how would you spend it? How about $75M? $240M/8 Snell $200M/8 Monty $110/6 Imanaga $60M/3 Stroman $50M/3 Giolito $40M/3 Clevinger $30M/3 Lorenzen $25M/2 Manaea $20M/2 Junis $16M/1 Montas $14M/1 Paxton $12M/1 Ryu $40M/3 Garver $20M/2 Merrifield or Amed Rosario $18M/2 Duvall $16M/1 J Turner or T Anderson $8M/1 M. A. Taylor My answers. The best singular deal might be Imanaga. I'd sign him as the best deal. $55M AAV: 25.0 Monty 18.5 Imanaga 10.0 Merrifield (or trade for Polanco) $75M 25.0 Monty 20.0 Stroman 18.5 Imanaga 10.0 Merrifield
-
Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
moonslav59 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
LOL. True. -
It seems most of the largest signings never earned their pay. Several never came close. Some had limited success, but overall, did not meet expectations.
-
I think fans realize, now, it's not on the GM, anymore. Some still might, but I think most can see the sham for what it is, now.
-
Well, that is close to what our hopes have come to, right now. BTW, Sale has come somewhat close to that several times: GS/ERA 2012-2014 (3 year average: 28 GS and 2.79 ERA) 29/3.05 30/3.07 26/2.17 31/3.41 in 2015 2016-2018: (3 year average: 30 GS and 2.85 ERA) 32/3.34 32/2.90 27/2.11 2012-2018 average: 30 GS 2.91 ERA
-
Exactly. Ben tilted too much to prospect hoarding. (I have always felt he would have traded some, had he been given 1 more year, but still...) DD tilted too much to the here and now, although I'm happy it worked for 3 years. Bloom was a repeat of Ben. It's hard to view Brez as another DD, but like Ben and Bloom, his spending limits may doom him to another unbalanced approach. BTW, had Ben and Bloom better spent what they were given, they may have lasted longer than 4 years. They both were given more than just peanuts.
-
I'm with you, Bell. Two from ERod, Gray and Lugo would have given us some hope. It's not pie-in-the-s9ky to think we could have afforded 2-3 from: ERod Gray Lugo Imanaga Stroman Giolito (maybe a couple others) While 2-3 of these guys (plus Monty and Snell) are still available, we technically still have a chance, but who here believes we pull it off?
-
It makes no sense to trade for a top pitcher, then extend him at market rates. Just overpay for a FA, now. (Monty or Snell plus one from Imanaga, Stroman, Giolito or perhaps Bauer/Montas/Clevinger.) Once Monty and Snell are gone, I'm in sell-off/ punt mode.
-
I'm not sure. I thought I saw it somewhere.
-
Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
moonslav59 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
So, any talk of what we were prepared to offer was yet another lie? (I'm not doubting it was a lie, but if they did have close to $300M to spend, why don't they still have that much for Monty and 1-2 others?)
