moonslav59

Indeed! It seems like adding a quality SP'ers has a ripple effect all the way down the line, unlike other positions.

Agreed. When you look at possible upgrade areas, there are usually a few factors involved. Take the example brought up, earlier, about signing Matt Chapman. It would be a cle upgrade on defense, and would push Devers to 1B/DH, Casas to DH/1B and Yoshida to near FT LF. It's not easy valuing the changes made to those 4 positions on O and D. You have to look at how much of an upgrade is any addition over what you have, and what you do with the current starter. Adding a catcher would be easy, especially for a one year deal or until Teel is ready. Wong or McGuire becomes the back-up and we trade the other or send Wong to AAA as depth. Adding a CF'er keeps Rafaela and or Abreu in AAA for another season and might bridge us to Anthony, assuming it is also a one year deal. The side advantage is that it locks Duran into LF, more often. Adding a RF'er might force Duran to CF, as O'Neill plays LF. That seems like less of a plus, in theory. Upgrading one or two Rotation slots offers the chance for a larger gain, because what we have is so low or questionable. The added advantage is moving Houck or Crawford to the pen. Double plus. Add two solid SP'ers and it's a quadruple plus.

We could use an upgrade at Catcher or CF/RF, but clearly our rotation is a much higher priority. Plus, we have Teel and Anthony as our best, near ML ready, prospects, so any upgrade would likely have to be a one year player.

It's not rocket science. While there is no guarantee adding much better SP'ing will get us to the playoffs, it sure looks like the area most in need of a serious upgrade. The added benefit of upgrading the rotation would be a likely serious upgrade to the pen, as we move 1 or 2 pitchers, who have shown they can do very well in the pen, back into it. As bad as this team has looked for a couple years, it seems like we were just 2 solid SP'ers away from being a playoff team. Maybe one ace type could have been enough. I might be a homer for saying this, but we could still add Monty, Clevinger and Duvall and be at worst, WC contenders in 2024. Maybe just Monty and Duvall.

The winter of the Two Million Dollar splurge!

But, do you really think most Sox fans only view our championship seasons as the only ones that count on an issue like this? While it is well documented that our 4 rings involved having not just one, but at least two very good SP'ers, but that the overall health of the rotation was present, too. IMO, the rotation has been THE major reason we have 4 rings. For so many years, we seemed to fall short due to being out pitched or seemingly one top SP'er short of being champs, but there are many examples in MLB where teams witn without having a clear ace. There have been a few examples where teams win without having a really good #2 or #3 SP'er, either. To say it is "BS" to say this is over reach, IMO.

Why look at just 4 examples? (BTW, I agree that SP'ing is the major factor in PO wins.)

I think of it this way: They "saved"... $10M on the Sale trade $8.7M on the Verdugo trade $5M on the Urias trade Total: $23.7M $19.2 Giolito $5.9 on the O'Neill trade Total: $24.7M Big $1M splurge, this winter.

I agree. Just compare these two seasons of significant offseason additions: 2021: $10M x 1 Richards $8M x 1 Ottavino (trade) $7M x 2 Kike $5M x 1 Perez $3.1M Renfroe $3.0M Marwin $2.0M x 1 Andriese $1.5M x 2 Sawamura 2022 $140M/6 Story $12M/1 JBJ (trade) $14M/2 Paxton $7M/1 Wacha $5M/1 R Hill $8M/ Diekman $3M/1 Strahm 2023: $90M/5 Yoshida $32M/2 Jansen $12M/1 Turner $10M/1 Kluber $18M/2 Martin $7M/1 Duvall $3M/1 Mondesi (trade) Which season got the best results from their additions?

I did not list Nate in '21, because by then, I viewed him as a "#1." (My criteria is different from most. To me, a #1 is about a top 30 SP'er.)

We need a couple giant steps to make the playoffs. Baby steps are for babies.

Sometimes, some pitcher comes out of nowhere and pitches like an ace in the playoffs, but he wasn't one all year. Wacha in '13, until he met the Sox. Kyle Hendricks '16 Nate in '18 Framber Valdez '22

The farm.

That Royals team did not even have a solid #2. Some might say Edinson Volques was, that year (33 GS, 3.55 ERA/ 3.82 FIP, but after him... 28 GS Y Ventura 4.08/3.57 24 GS J Guthrie 5.95/5.61 24 GS D Duffy 4.08/4.43 18 GS C Young 3.06/4.52 They traded for Cueto who started 13 games: 4.76/4.06

Talk about a sham.

Was this after they knew Sale and ERod would miss the 2020 season?

The fact that his best farm pen additions came via trade (Winckowski,) Waivers (Schreiber & Bernardino) and Rule 5 (Whitlock) is pretty telling. Neither were really "developed" by our system, although one could argue maybe a little bit. Others added via trade: Isaiah Campbell (Brez guy) Grant Gambrell (Connor Seabold) Rule 5: Justin Slaten (Brez guy) Waivers/ MiLFA: Kelly Max Castillo (Brez guy) Zack Weiss

Yes, choosing the 6 game sample size was cherry-picking. The 2.94 FIP, which included that blow out game (the 6th from his last start) shows he was not dropping off. To me, Houck is an outstanding pitcher for the first 9 batters and pretty good, the next nine. He's done it for 2+ seasons. One can argue that profiles as a great long man in the pen, and that's true. He's my slight favorite over Crawford, if it comes down to either/or. I choose both over Whitlock.

Yes, your point was and still is spot on. I think everyone agrees he is in the rotation. We'd need to add 3 SP'er to knock him out, so he's 100% in, if healthy. Bello, Gio and Pivetta are locks. The last two slots depend largely on whether we add a SP'er between now and opening day. (Adding two is just a dream I had.) If we don't add any new SP'ers, those last 2 slots go to two of these three pitchers: Houck, Crawford or Whitlock. One begins the year in the pen, unless we decide to go with a 6 man rotation, which is highly unlikely. I have been thinking Whitlock is the obvious pen choice of the three, but he's been bulking up and might have the best stuff of the three, and has more than just 2 pitches that work. I still hope we add 2 SP'ers andf would be happier with 1 than none, but these penny-pinchers might just roll the dice, here. They might be thinking, "let's find out, now, in a non competitive season, if these guys can start, or not."

Sox RP'er games with 4+ IP: Pivetta: 6 (and 4 with 3.0- 3.2 IP) Crawford: 2 (1 with 3 IP) Murphy: 3 (6 between 3.0 and 3.2) That's 11 times a RP'er went 4+ and 22 times at 3 IP or more. (About once a week.) Houck started 100% in '23.

It's interesting to note that he never went 6.1 as a starter in 2023. I worry about Kutter's ability to start 28+ games or give us 160+ IP, without dropping off. He did finish 2023 with a 5.40 ERA over his last 6 starts. In his defense, his FIP was 2.94, and his last start of the season was 6 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB & 7 Ks. If you switch those 6.1 IP to the SP totals and subtract from the RP totals, his splits go from.... 4.51 as a SP to 4.20 1.66 as RP to 2.34 BTW, Pivetta also had that great and long RP game: 6 IP 2 Hits 2 BB 13 Ks 0 ER He had 3 others with 5 IP (2 ER, 0 ER and 2 ER)

I'm thinking maybe even Clevinger is going to be too expensive for these misers. Maybe the list is down to Lauer, Wood, Duvall or a RP'er (Stanek?)

It has been a long eerie silence. It would be nice to hear of a major signing, but I seriously doubt it happens, despite rumors of falling prices.

It's been a while since the last time I felt this confident in our 4 infield positions. Granted, we need health from Story, better D from Devers, no sophomore slump from Casas and Grissom to show he deserved all that hype, but it looks pretty solid, to me. 1B: Casas (no real back-up, except Dalbec, who should stay in AAA as much as possible.) 2B: Grissom still has to prove he belongs, but I'm very confident he will. (Reyes and EValdez offer nice depth.) SS: Story is an excellent defender: he just needs to stay healthy and hit over .740, or so. (Not sure Reyes is all that great as depth.) 3B: Devers forevers. (Reyes, EValdez, Meidroth as depth is okay.)

They may figure out a way to get these guys to do better as starters. They all have some "nasty stuff," so maybe it works out. I'm just really keen on having a pen with 2-3 solid long relievers that can go 4-5 innings, if needed, even 6+ in some cases- like Crawford and Pivetta did, last year.