Maxbialystock

Duran LF (.844) Bregman 3b (.894) Anthony DH (!) (.861) Narvaez C (.738) Story SS (.704) Mayer 2b (.747) Rafaela CF (.786) Toro 1b (.781) In parentheses are OPS's vs righty pitchers. Note 4 righty bats (Bregman, Narvaez, Story, and Rafaela). Cubs are 30-16 at home and Sox are 21-25 on the road. MLB leaders in runs scored: Dodgers 1st; Cubs 2d; Yankees 3d; DBacks 4th; Sox 5th; Tigers 6th Same 5 teams rankings in team ERA: Dodgers 25th; Cubs 14th; Yankees 13th; Diamondbacks 26th; Red Sox 12th; Tigers 6th.

I sure wasn't OK with signing Giolito for $40M for 2 years and missing all of last year. Right now his cumulative WAR for that $40M is +0.8. Nevertheless, his turnaround could not have come at a better time. In fact, Crochet, Bello, and Giolito have emerged as the best three combined starters for the Sox since at least 2018.

Agree that the last two were both surprises and made a difference. The first one I'm a little less impressed with, but I like your numbers. To me the other big surprise, no doubt related to surprises #2 and #3, is how the Sox bounced back without Bregman and then without Bregman and Devers, which included the 10 game winning streak because Bregman was not a factor. One more surprise to me was/is how good Bregman, Crochet, Chapman, and Narvaez turned out to be.

We don't. But we can be pretty sure they've given it a lot of thought. Input might have been provided by the pitching coach, the pitchers, the manager, et al. Talksoxers love to complain about the Sox defense, and the first line of any team's defense is--guess what?--half the freaking team in the pitching staff. And job one for any catcher should be making those pitchers effective.

He has a plus DWAR this year because he worked very hard on his posture, framing, and defensive skills in the past offseason. I pretty sure the Sox could have traded for a backup catcher at almost any point this season and chose not to.

Why are you assuming the Sox have not analyzed the backup catcher situation? Of course they have. And so far their view seems to be that Wong's pluses outweigh his minuses.

Right now job 1 is getting to the playoffs, which are by no means guaranteed. But you have me confused. I was commenting on your phrase, "2nd starter," which to me means 2d only to Crochet. I don't think that's necessary. Desirable, sure, but at what cost? I like the arguments on both sides of whether or not to trade Duran.

I like that last line. I also think the Sox first three starters--Crochet, Bello, and Giolito--are the best first three the Sox have had since 2018. Nevertheless, the outfield is looking a little crowded right now with Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, and Anthony.

Just exactly what do you mean by "2nd starter?" I ask because to me the first three starter positions are filled: Crochet ERA 2.23, Bello 3.14, and Giolito 3.36. When was the last time the Sox had three starters with those ERA's? Crochet also has 12 quality starts out of 20 overall, Bello has 9 out of 15, and Giolito has 9 out of 13. You think those guys are chopped liver? I am by no means against getting another starter and would not hesitate to trade Duran for the right deal.

That's the way I see it.

Yep. The Sox could stumble over the next 9 games (@ Cubs, @ Phillies, Dodgers), but so could any team. So it would be great if they could go, say, 5-4.

You and I have read different versions about what was said to Devers. But no matter. I think we can agree that playing 3b was a big deal for Devers, who had played 3b for 8 straight years. Also that hiring Bregman, a good hitter and a gold glove third baseman, meant that Devers had to leave 3b. Because Casas was at 1b, Devers had to be DH. When Casas, who was having a bad season, injured himself running to 1b (last year his injury came from swinging a bat), Breslow saw the perfect opportunity to move Devers to 1b and use Yoshida or whoever at DH. At the time, I thought leaving Devers as DH got the best use out of him. As it turns out, Toro/Gonzalez have actually been better at 1b than Casas was. However, once the trade with the Giants was done, I was fine with it, partly because of your point that paying Devers $30M to be DH and paying Yoshida $18M not to DH didn't make sense. I also noted that the 6 game winning streak occurred because of the Sox pitching and not because of anything Devers did. I also said--after Devers was traded--that Devers became trade material the day Bregman was announced as the Sox third baseman. So, while I do like to defend Devers if only because he was an excellent DH, I have always been fine with his departure. Whether or not he was lied to loses its significance as each day goes by.

Love the 10 straight wins, but agree the next 9 games are a better test of the Sox hitting and pitching. To me what's different about this Sox team from, say, a month ago, is the greater depth of the hitting and the emergence of starters Giolito and Bello. The NL may well be better than the AL, but the toughest division in MLB, based on W-L records, is still the AL East.

He's the backup catcher, starting 1 game in 3. He's good defensively and he knows the Sox pitching staff. He caught Bello in his last two starts, together possibly the two best back to back starts in Bello's career. He has had 0 passed balls. He nabs 24% of baserunners attempting to steal to Narvaez 28%. His lifetime OPS is .685.

All pretty much true. But when he left he was just a DH and so was/is Yoshida. That's $48M/year for a DH. Meanwhile, the Sox hitting has improved since Devers left and they have roared back into postseason contention. The Giants are 11-14 since Devers and his now .656 OPS arrived. Your commentary jibes perfectly with the consensus view when Devers went to the Giants--great for them, terrible for the Sox. Smart Giants, dumb Sox.

Of course he didn't take the switch to DH well. He was repeatedly promised 3b would stay his. However, when he embraced DH as Cora said he should, he was pretty good at it--OPS .905 plus he didn't miss a game. I do not understand the furor over replacing Casas, who was having a horrible season. Toro/Gonzalez have been way better than Casas. What I do understand is that keeping Devers at DH was like paying double because Yoshida can only DH. So that's $30M + $18M for a DH. On top of that has been the emergence of Anthony, maybe or maybe not Mayer, Story, Narvaez, and Rafaela at the plate. The Sox are in fact hitting better without Devers than they did with him. Plus let's not forget that pitching has been the biggest issue with the Sox. So the emergence of Giolito and Bello as pretty good starters has made a world of difference and also reduces the "pain" of losing Devers. I'm not mad at Devers, but am mad at the commentary that says the Sox were stupid to let him go. It was the smart move.

Not sure what you mean by management kool-aid. I loved Devers as the DH, plus I think he was lied to about keeping 3b. However, to quote Cora, "players are traded all the time. It's part of baseball. End of story." When Devers was traded the Sox were on a hot streak, not because of anything Devers did, but because the pitching was terrific for 6 straight games. Since he left, the Sox hitting is better without Devers and the Giant hitting is worse with him. The Sox have been winning while the Giants have been losing.

I'm with you. Wong is a good defensive catcher and knows this pitching staff well. With him behind the plate, in his last 2 starts Bello has been sharp. Plus hitting is not exactly a weak suit for the Sox right now.

You mean that? You really, really that? Well, if you do, I'll just have to write it down--and throw it away. Nobody but nobody on talksox right now is guaranteeing anything with respect to the postseason. Some of us are hopeful, me probably longer than anyone else. By the way, just out of curiosity. When starters do well for 4 weeks are we supposed to say, "means absolutely nothing because their elbows or something else could go bad, or they could just stop pitching well?"

Great compilation of stats, mvp78. Thanks. So point one is that the Sox ain't "el foldos" so much as having to endure a tough 2d half schedule. Point two is that the AL East again has the best W-L record in MLB and the Sox still have a bunch of those games to play. Plus of course the three NL division leaders in the next 9 games. Point three, however, is that these Sox are deep in good lineup players. You know that's true when practically the entire Talksox board wants a better hitting backup catcher. Everyone pretty much likes the primary catcher and the other 8 lineup position players. I took a quick peek at the total WAR's for the 2021 Sox lineup players and they are just a tad higher than the ones for the 2025 Sox who have played just 95 games. Point four are the three pretty good starters in Crochet, Bello, and Giolito, who are worlds better than Eovaldi, ERod, and Pivetta in 2021, who also finished the season without a closer. Plus Buehler and Fitts aren't awful. My conclusion from the above is that these Sox have a real shot despite the tough schedule, so stay tuned.

Well reasoned.

I like your version more than mine.

I'm sure Rafaela wakes up in the middle of the night asking himself, "when oh when will I win FredLynn's trust?" So allow me to go to the opposite extreme. He can hit, hit with power, field, catch, and run the bases and kind of reminds me of Willie Mays who was also 5'10" and had the same five tools. Willie was a ton better of course, especially in his first 13 seasons after returning from service in the US Army. On the other hand, Willie couldn't play the infield the way Ceddanne can. Ceddanne is in his 2d full season, so I find it hard to buy that this current run is blind stupid luck. We'll see.

Forget tbd. Not gonna happen by 31 July. When was the last time the Sox had 3 starters as good as Crochet, Bello, and Giglio? They already have 31 quality starts in 49 starts and ERA's of 2.23, 3.14, and 3.36.

I think the Sox already have a good enough rotation, lineup, and even bullpen for the playoffs. So job 1 is to get to get there. The 2011 Sox were pretty good, but couldn't do it after they collapsed in September. This team still has 67 games to play, and a lot can happen.