Maxbialystock

Yes, the mistakes are bad, but the biggest problem is that Sale is now very, very hittable, I think because the only pitch he throws for strikes is the fast ball, so they can sit on it and not worry about a slider, curve, changeup, you name it.

I thought the two wins in St Louis were big and said so, then came the 3 losses in Oakland. Then the 6 game win streak, then winning 2 of 3 in Chicago followed but two losses here in Baltimore. So I agree with all the rest of you--we really need to win this game, not only to stay on track, but to keep the Orioles where they belong--behind us and the Yankees.

I'm not sure, but I think the difference between Price this year--so far--and Price last year is fewer straight fastballs and generally lower in the strike zone. In any case, last night he was masterful against a lineup that pummeled ERod the night before. Right now the Sox have six starters--Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Pomeranz, and Johnson--who have all pitched at least one solid game. Pomeranz and Porcello have the same ERA, 4.24. Plus a more than decent bullpen. If the hitting comes around, despite the absence of Ortiz, the Sox could be tough. On the other hand, right now the Yankees are ranked 4th in MLB in runs scored and 5th in ERA. Their turnaround from last year is astounding.

Indeed.

YOTN to the rescue!

This is one of the more astounding threads-I'm guessing here--in talksox history. I say that because it is now 82 pages long, the second longest on the front page of talksox forum, and it's about a rookie who looked promising last year and in April this year but is now struggling. At no time has looked as promising as the still young Mookie Betts has become and who I will bet never had an 82 page thread about him. In fact at the same age, 22, Betts was already way better--his overall WAR in 2015 was 4.9--than Benintendi is today. So the question has to be, why the fixation on Benintendi? He is small for a Sox left fielder. He is a decent but not great fielder with an average arm. He has good speed, but not the instincts of a JBJ or for that matter a Betts who started out as a secondbaseman. He is an OK baserunner. He did make that great over the wall grab last year in Tampa. He does have a sweet swing, no question, but right now also an inconsistent one. And he has long hair and he's white.

Last year at this point--54 games, 1/3 of the season--we were 10 games above .500. More and more it appears that the absence of Ortiz has brought everyone--except maybe Bogaerts, whose OPS is actually up--down from last year's scoring machine. Homers are way down and GIDP's are up. It would appear that the Sox/Bill James offensive philosophy--don't bunt, don't steal, don't hit and run, take lots of pitches but no chances, etc--requires at least one stud in the lineup and preferably two. Earl Weaver believed in great pitching and the 3 run dinger, and we are trending toward the former, but away from the latter. Marrero with his OPS of .536 kept the 3b job simply because he can field, which 3 others, including Sandoval, apparently can't do. I agree Benintendi will probably get better, ditto Betts and maybe JBJ. But Ramirez? Pedroia? Leon? Moreland? 3b?

I thought I'd revisit this thread because I started it way back in April and so feel a little pride of prophecy. We are now exactly 1/3 into the season--54 games--a significant statistical sampling--and 4 games above .500, which is nice, but actually below where we were last year at this point. Worse, the Sox are lagging despite having a much improved rotation. We came into this 4 game series at Baltimore with a stud rotation of Sale, Porcello (last year's cy young), ERod, Price (@$30M/year), and Pomeranz, whose ERA of 4.24 actually matches Porcello's. We also have one of the best closers in MLB in Kimbrel and some pretty good other relievers to back him up. In short, the pitching this year so far is much better than last year. But right now the Sox seem fully capable of being swept by the Orioles who just a week ago were in a tailspin with a 7 game losing streak. I would argue once again that it's the hitting and more specifically the absence of Ortiz which just might be killing this team which should be contending. Ortiz just might have been the best hitter (highest OPS) in MLB last year. More to the point, he also apparently made everyone else in that lineup better. I say this because most of those same hitters--HanRam, Pedroia, Betts, Leon, JBJ--are hitting worse this year than last. On top of which Beni is in a slump and Farrell is forced to use Marrero--OPS .536--at 3B simply because the errors by three others were killing us.

Ultimately, the manager bears the overall responsibility for wins and losses. That said, I am more and more convinced that the biggest problem with this team is the departure of Ortiz, over which Farrell had no control. The simple fact is that last year the hitting was terrific and this year it's so-so which experience says is simply not going to hack it for a Red Sox team. Ortiz was possibly the best hitter--certainly as measured by OPS--in MLB last year. That's significant, but it now appears that his bat in lineup lifted others' hitting and without his bat HanRam, Betts, Pedroia, JBJ, et al have lower OPS's than last year. Moreland, whose bat replaces Ortiz's in the lineup, is actually having a good year for him, but his OPS is 200 points lower than Ortiz's was. On top of all that, Benintendi, the very promising rookie who skipped AAA last year and seemed to be comfortable hitting (OPS .835) for Boston, has so far disappointed (OPS .711) this year as a regular in LF. We were all disappointed with the 3b situation last year, but this year Farrell has been forced to start Marrero, whose OPS of .562 has to be competitive for the lowest OPS for a regular in MLB, simply because he is a reliable fielding thirdbaseman. I'm not so much defending Farrell because I believe he bears some responsibility for overall team performance, but am asking the obvious question, what should he have done to fix the hitting which is the real problem with this team?

Meat of the order--Rutledge, Sandoval, and Leon--coming up in the 8th.

HanRam, however, is indeed a putz.

Nice 6th inning by Porcello--showed some grit with 2 men on and 1 out. He threw 118 pitches.

I gripe about Porcello, but it's the hitting that is killing this team. So far 2 lousy hits in 6 innings. Beni has struck out twice. The first 7 batters are hitless.

It would seem from the evidence that Porcello simply can't throw a pitch in the lower part of the strike zone.

He was lucky as hell last year. He might have a good repertoire, but his control stinks and none of his pitches are really great.

The bad news is that Porcello is already at 47 pitches in the 2d inning. The good news is that Porcello is now at 49 pitches in the 2d inning.

Our guys do not seem to be road warriors, on top of which they seem thoroughly intimidated playing the Orioles.

2 observations on the 1st inning-- 1. Porcello is very lucky to only give up 2 dingers because 2 others could easily have gone out if they'd just had a little more altitude. He has virtually no control over where his pitches will go so he must aim for the middle of the plate and hope for the best. His curve and changeup also stink. 2. Our guys were fed nothing but 91 mph fast balls in the first inning and of course got nothing. Benintendi struck out swinging on 4 pitches (1 ball). Bogie popped up. Betts hit a liner but catchable in CF.

Whoa, Nellie. I like WAR a lot, but I also like the fact that I can confirm it by watching the players on our team, and right now JBJ--in my opinion--deserves 5th best WAR among all MLB centerfielders. We know that's about right because we can all see that he has very good range because he gets a great jump on the ball. He has an excellent arm. Plus my own secret formula--assists vs. errors--looks good: he has 3 assists and 0 errors. And his OPS right now is .765, not great, but not bad at all. Betts has the 2d best WAR among all MLB rightfielders. Do I have to recite all the reasons why I think that's about right? Of course not. Now I will also admit I have severe heartburn with Bogaerts DWAR, which is -0.6 and the worst of the 26 MLB "qualified" SS's, which I think means they've played the majority of their teams' games at SS. However, even with that execrable defensive rating, Bogie's War is 10th best among qualified SS's in MLB--not too shabby. Anyone want to where where Iglesias's .5 WAR puts him? 21st, that's where.

For those advocating the immediate release of Sandoval, consider the following simple scenario. He is still 30 and has missed a bunch of games--basically all of last year--the last 2-3 years. So he is rusty. So he very possibly could go to a contending team, get his stroke back--he was pretty good in San Francisco where he was heavier than he is now--play decent defense, and make a real contribution. And the Sox would be playing him to play for that other team.

I'm sorry, but I will have to discount that statement given it's coming from someone self-named a700hitter. If the Sox had the proverbial (Yankees, I think) Murderers Row, you would likely be saying, "if these guys are so good, why did Carl Hubbell strike them out all in a row? We need more hitting." Beyond question there is something wrong with this lineup, and it ain't the batting order. Ortiz left a bigger hole than anyone anticipated. Without him, just about all the guys in the lineup with him last year are hitting worse this year: Pedroia, HanRam, Betts, JBJ, 3b. But not Bogie, whose OPS is right now 45 points higher. So you take that and then pile on the huge difference in OPS, etc between Ortiz and Moreland, the guy who actually replaced him in the lineup because HanRam was in the lineup last year, and you have a big swing in hitting.

Exactly what I was thinking during that game. I normally treat him as #1 on the FBI UNWANTED list and was delighted when he proved me wrong for the second game in a row. A couple times he shut the Chisox down when they had guys on third--gritty, which is an adjective I normally would never apply to him.

Meh. Betts, bogaerts, and Ramirez were 1 for 12. Vazquez and JBJ batted in all 5 runs.

One thing seems apparent to me. The Orioles work a lot harder at keeping the ball down in the strike zone than our guys do. There is an article in today's washington post by dave shenin that says wstatistics say grounders are bad news for hitters and good news for the defense, so hitters are trying to get the ball in the air. Well, not our hitters, of course. No way, no how do we want to give up our MLB lead in GIDP's. I'm being unfair, of course. The idea is simply to hit the ball squarely.

To say nothing of the four dinger rule.