Maxbialystock

I think this was a pretty good first stab, but vehemently disagree on dropping Vazquez. And not including Wright is criminal. I also see 3 relievers you could drop without hurting the bullpen: Kelly, Pom, and Johnson. Vazquez brings you back to 14 position players, about normal for the postseason and leaves 11 pitchers, also normal for the playoffs. If you drop Kelly, Pom, and Johnson, you can bring back Wright and Vazquez--and maybe Poyner (lone lefty in bullpen). Pom has a WAR of -.6, which I think is earned. Johnson's is 0.0, ditto. Kelly's is .3, but he is just so inconsistent and has been horrible in September.

Yeah, well I like Lindor so there.

I'm pretty sure both Nunez and Devers will be on the roster and am fine with whoever Cora starts in a given game. The other one can always pinch hit. Speaking of which, there was a discussion earlier about Cora having options to pinch hit for his catcher. Thus the 3d catcher on the roster and maybe an extra bat. Lately, I'm thinking it might be smarter to beef up the pitching because it sure is looking like the weak link. Normally, usually a MLB carries 12, but lately just 11 in the playoffs because of the rest days. So I'm thinking Cora carries 8 starters: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Eovaldi, Wright, Velazquez, and Johnson (or that kid Cuevas). The last four have already relieved once or more this season, so they can relieve, but I'm thinking right now early relief before the game gets out of hand. The other three pitchers would probably be Kimbrel, Brasier, and Barnes. Cora might even consider a 12th arm on the roster to beef up the short relievers with Poyner or Workman or whoever.

But he's still good for $100M for 5 or so years, don't you think? He actually is a pretty good closer but remarkably unreliable in anything other than a 1 inning save situation given a clean inning to work with.

I believe someone else posted an article or something that says WAR has become popular with the MVP voters.

mvp78, moonslav has a thing about defense up the middle. He loved Iglesias in 2013 and hated that he was traded. His theory was that good defense saves probably two or three hundred runs a year--or is it a month? With Iglesias at SS and JBJ in CF right now the Sox team ERA would be like 1.25. That's how important defense is, and Bogey is just average (or worse). Nevertheless, I always like it when moonslav provides a list like this. He knows his own mind--and the players. My only switch in fact would be switching JBJ and Bogey.

Interesting.

Hell, it almost always is location when you throw a lot of fastballs. Kelly can throw 100 mph most of the time, but gets hit hard because they know one's coming and he ain't that good at working the edges.

2 dingers off Price? Both off of fastballs. Hmmmm.

I facetiously said 105 but then admitted I had no idea how many and, honestly, would have been just fine with 95. 106 and counting is insane. Those two early streaks were big, so was the pitching. And the hitting came back with a vengeance, largely, I think, because of the JDM who is another David Ortiz in his effect on the lineup and their run production. Thus Betts, Beni, and Bogey all improved over 2017. jacksonianmarch complains we did this by beating up on weak teams. True. But guess what? The Yankees played them as often as we did. Compliments to the OP for putting in that poll and now reminding us of it.

Nicely said. Watching Kelly pitch, I sometimes get the impression he has a confidence issue. If so, maybe his subconscious is telling him--stay away from that playoff pressure.

Lindor is, I think, the top-rated defensive SS in MLB and has an OPS of .879 with 36 dingers, 89 rbi's, 124 runs, 23 SB's, etc. His overall WAR, however, is 7.7 to Mookie's 10.7. Still, that OPS is awfully darn impressive when owned by the best fielding SS. The big surprise to me is that earlier in the season Trout had a better DWAR than Mookie. But now Mookie's DWAR is double Trout's.

Lindor is, I think, the top-rated defensive SS in MLB and has an OPS of .879 with 36 dingers, 89 rbi's, 124 runs, 23 SB's, etc. His overall WAR, however, is 7.7 to Mookie's 10.7. Still, that OPS is awfully darn impressive when owned by the best fielding SS.

Really? Why would Cora keep Kelly when he has the 12th best WAR on the Sox pitching staff and an ERA of 10.29 in September. Kelly is an interesting study in relievers this season. He had three great months--April, May, and August--and three horrible ones--June, July, and September.

I'm thinking the same thing. I think the Yankees had like 8 righty bats and no bad ones (Sanchez came the closest to bad) against Price last week when they got 6 runs off him in 5.1. They also hit ERod and couldn't get to Eovaldi who went 6 scoreless in game 1 before Workman and Brasier coughed up 3.

Kelly looked awful again last night--no command of his pitches. I think his best modus operandi is to go mostly with breaking stuff--he has a curve, slider, and changeup, all pretty decent--and an occasional fastball. Last night his first pitch was a fastball down the middle, hit squarely for a clean single. Then he tried hitting the corners with his fastball and breaking stuff and walked guys, plus I think he got an out. Interestingly, the Sox currently have 8 starters: Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, ERod, Johnson, Velazquez, and Wright. Of those 8, the four with the most quality starts are Price, 18, Sale, 17, Porcello, 16, and ERod, 7. So, as much as I like my idea of starting Wright 3 times for, say, 2 innings each time, it also occurs to me that Cora could simply go into the ALDS with 4 short relievers--Kimbrel, Brasier, Barnes, and one other--and 3 long relievers--Wright, Eovaldi or ERod, and Velazquez or Johnson. He can still start those long relievers for 2 or more innings, or he can use them in the traditional way. It appears Cora is currently conducting a mini-camp to see who can pitch in what situation. Eovaldi just might get the 4th starter slot over ERod, which would give Cora two lefty starters and two righty starters.

That's exactly what I think. At aother time Kimbrel long term might have been affordable, but not next year.

It pissed me off too. But, to be honest, he did give the lineup a chance to score the go ahead run. I really think he left Cuevas in there so the game would end at a decent hour and they could catch their flight back to Boston to play tonight. Therefore I have redirected my anger at Sunday Night Baseball, which I hate with a passion, and on the lineup for not scoring. This loss did not put home field advantage in jeopardy. Plus Cora got a chance to see Cuevas work 5+ innings.

That makes a lot of sense. The one thing I thought Lin might be valuable for is pinch-running. By the way, are you advocating 11 pitchers or 10? If the latter, I see these 15 position players. 9 starters: Betts, Beni, JDM, Bogey, Moreland, Kinsler, Devers, Leon, and JBJ. Then these 5: Pearce, Nunez, Holt, Vazquez, Swihart. That leaves 1 guy and maybe that could be Lin, who is almost as versatile as Holt and faster. I think better than Phillips. If it's 11 pitchers--4 starters, and 7 in the bullpen, then Lin is out.

I want him off the roster. I want him deported or rocketed to the moon. But, honestly, you could be right. Last night he looked pretty darn good. Maybe he just needs to use his fast ball less and the other stuff more. I liked that changeup.

Really? Epic? Wright has made 17 appearances this year, pitched 50 innings, and been tagged for 15 earns runs. In one of those 16 games, the disaster vs. Seattle, he gave up 10 runs in 3.1 innings (it was a start). If you toss that 1 game out, in the other 16 games he went 46.2 innings and gave up 5 earned runs, which means an ERA of under 1 for those 16 appearances. Get back to me when you can name another reliever in MLB this season who can get his ERA under 1 by just throwing out one appearance. I completely agree knucklers can be vulnerable. I believe rain will do it. Maybe cold weather, I don't know. So you could end up being right, but right now the numbers are on Wright's side.

Several problems with your approach-- 1. Yes, a knee issue, but he has been fine since he came back. Besides, no proposed use of him as a reliever is any better than the others. So, yes, the knee could go, but it's not a tiebreaker on how to use him. 2. No, his knuckler, since he came back, has not suddenly disappeared. In fact, he has been by far the most reliable pitcher on the team, including Sale. He's good for 1 inning or 3 innings. Granted, small sample size since he returned, but even before the DH time he was pretty good. Try these numbers on for size. He's gone 50 innings and given up 15 runs, season to date. It you take out just one game, the disaster vs. Seattle when he gave up 10 runs in 3.1 innings, he has gone 46.2 innings and given up 5 runs, which converts to an ERA of less than 1 for the other 16 games he has pitched in. And you have him as the 4th best guy in the bullpen. However, that does explain why you have no idea how to use him or what he can do. Did you not know, for example, he has actually started games and done well? 3. Ready to go at an instant's notice? Are you nuts? First you say he's fragile and can barely manage. But having him ready to go at an instant's notice means keeping him warmed up in the bullpen. The only time managers can have guys ready now is when they are sure the starter (or the reliever) on the mound is about due to come out. So they have guys warming up in advance, almost always in the late innings. 4. Dance routine? What the heck does that mean?

Not necessary? You like our bullpen? You are confident our top three starters are good for 7 innings per game? I do like your term scripting, however. You're absolutely right. I said start Wright 3 times, which would keep him from relieving. However-- Nothing prevents Cora from doing it in the first game as a test. If it works, he can try it again. If not, not. In 2016 Porcello and Price started the first two ALDS games against the Guardians and both got blown away. Last year Sale started the first ALDS game and got blown away. So my question is, why are you so confident that this year is different and that Sale and Price and Porcello are going to be lights out in the first three games this year? And what the heck do you mean by overcomplicated? We've seen this tactic work and work well for the Rays. It is in fact dead simple. Just send Wright out for the first two innings instead of the 7th and 8th innings.

Well, the returns are in. My third option of starting Wright in 3 games has been universally condemned. I like your response the best, because, unlike the glittering generalities to condemn my heresy, you've provided some specifics. In fact, some pretty good specifics. You've got the same first three starters I--and most everyone else--would have. I might start ERod 4th, but think Eovaldi could do as well and maybe better. Best of all, you only use three other relievers besides Wright--Kimbrel, Brasier, and Barnes. Spot on. Oh, and you send Wright out there twice--game 1 and game 4--to long relieve Sale and Eovaldi. Pretty neat. Your approach beyond question optimizes the few strengths in an otherwise weak bullpen. But here's the problem. To make that work you have to assume your top three starters, who will start 4 of the 5 (if the ALDS goes to that) games, can go 6, 7, 7, and 7 innings against 1 of the top 5 run-producing lineups in MLB. That's right: the Yankees, Guardians, Astros, and A's are all in the top 5 out of 30 MLB teams. I did a quick check and found that those three--Sale, Price, and Porcello--made 19 starts this year against those 4 teams and got to 7 innings 6 times. On top of that all three pitched for the Sox in the ALDS last year and two of them in the ALDS the year before. How did those two series go? And that leads me to my next point. I completely agree having Wright start the 1st, 3d, and 5th games in the ALDS is a radical idea. And, frankly, I don't expect Cora to do that at this late date. He's going to agree with everyone else on this thread and use Wright in the traditional role of long reliever. Which leads to my final point. This radical, outlandish idea is now on a thread. If the Sox take the ALDS--just that, nothing more--I will be the first one on this thread to say, very happily, I was wrong. But . . .

First the non-conundrum. Right now I think Wright is close to the most valuable pitcher on the team. Not the best--that's Sale. But Wright can start and has, can close, and has, and can do long relief. And right now that knuckler is really working. The first conundrum is whether to make him a starter or reliever in the post season. I think that one's pretty easy--leave him in the bullpen because he can have an effect on more games and because the bullpen right now is in disarray. The second conundrum is how to use him as a reliever. Forget closing--let Kimbrel do that. But long relief could be crucial because, in addition to a weak bullpen, we don't have starters who consistently go beyond 6 innings. In fact, falling short of 6 is almost the standard. Enter Wright. In a five game series he could do that twice, maybe 3 times,which could be huge. But the Rays manager has shown how effective a reliever can be starting a game and going 1 or 2 or 3 innings. Better still, Wright would be perfect in that role because his knuckler messes up the other team's hitters' timing. So what if Wright "starts" the 1st, 3d, and 5th games of the ALDS and goes maybe 2 innings in each? Now the starter only has to go 6 innings--made easier by following Wright--and leave the 9th inning for Kimbrel.