Maxbialystock
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Everything posted by Maxbialystock
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You're darn right I do. I know something about strategy, and this is the way Napoleon took Moscow and later Hitler did the same thing after he bombed Pearl Harbor. You have to be bold. Never take counsel of your fears. Listen to George C. Scott.
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No way Travis is on the roster. Lin would be a way better pick. As it is, I'm pretty sure neither is on it because Cora is going with 14, including 3 catchers. That means the other three are Pearce, Nunez, and Holt. Troublemaker that I am, right now I would dump starter Kinsler and use Lin instead at 2B because he is hitting as Kinsler is not and because he should have the same range or better at 2b if not the same consistency.
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I only want Wright to do 2 innings on Friday, the first 2. That should be enough to set up Sale for success. If it works on Friday, maybe do it again on Monday. As I Sox fan since 1949, I learned long ago it's never too soon to panic.
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I also prefer Poyner and Workman. Kelly had a great August, May, and April and horrendous (ERA over 8 all three months) June, July, and September.
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Could be. I do remember the movie Moneyball. At the end of it. the vaunted A's who had won 20 straight lost to the Twins in the ALDS, 3-2. The next year they lost to the Sox, 3-2.
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Meh. When I'm on my hobby horse, stats mean nothing to me. Those are pretty good though. I might argue that I only want Wright to start and go 1 or 2 innings, and I will stack him up against the entire Oakland bullpen for doing that particular job. In fact, the reason I want to use Wright so much is precisely because our bullpen is so weak and because--weak-kneed fan that I am--I also nervous about the rotation and especially Sale, Anyway, thanks to you and moonslav for jumping on this. I'm sincerely grateful.
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Decades ago I got a degree English, which automatically allowed me to take poetic license. You got your metaphors, your similes, your oxymorons, and of course your hyperboles. I really like them hyperboles.
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Postseason bulletin. Bob Melvin of the A's has broken ranks with the other successful postseason managers and basically taken leave of his senses. In the win or go home wild card game tonight vs. the vaunted Yankees lineup, he ain't going with a starter, just a bunch of relievers. For all you who are quite confident Cora should never, never, never start a reliever, you better hope the Yankees win big tonight even though most of you, like me, are rooting for the A's.
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About tonight's game. Oakland is going with their bullpen, not a starter. Terrible idea--I read it right here on talksox. No way, no how can you win a MLB game, especially a wild card game, by starting a reliever. The only guys relieved tonight will be the Yankees fans. Their team almost doesn't have to show up. Well maybe the A's lineup can get to Severino. If so, maybe they can save Bob Melvin's job.
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The last time Sale went 5 was August 12 and he has had four starts, 12 innings, and 5 earned runs since then. In his last two starts he went 9 innings total and gave up 5 earned runs. Plus his velocity was way down last time. His ALDS ERA last year was 8.38. Price has done better, agreed. Last two starts vs Orioles and Yankees, however, he went 5.0 and 5.1 and gave up 5 dingers total. The 10 starts right before those, however, were mostly 6 and 7 innings plus two for 8 (Cleveland and Philly). Last year Price was great in the bullpen in the ALDS--6.2 innings, 0 runs. But he was a disaster in 2016 starting--3.1 innings, 5 runs. All Porcello's September starts--5 of them--were 5.2 or less innings. August better--5, 5, 7, 7, 4, and 9--but he gave up 21 runs with an ERA of 5.11. July the same. His ALDS ERA last year was 4.5 and the year before 10.4. I am not optimistic but, as always, I admire your positive spin.
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It sure looks that way. Good pitching does usually dominate good hitting. But good pitching doesn't just happen. I watched a bunch of Lester's pitches, and he rarely threw one in the middle of the zone. He had great command.
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Last night I watched a pretty good chunk of the Cubs loss to the Rockies--especially Lester. To me Jon Lester is very close to the approaches of Sale, Price, and ERod. All four are lefty power pitchers who rely on their fastballs judiciously mixed with the right amount of breaking stuff. They all throw right around 93/94 mph except Sale who normally prefers 96-99 mph. Unlike Sale, Price, and ERod, I'm not sure I saw Lester throw many changeups. But he was darn effective because he was hitting his spots, and that, it seems to me, is the key for postseason success for our guys. If they can do that, command their pitches, then this thread has merit and we can talk about Sale or Price or whoever among the starters. Otherwise, gimme Wright for just 2 innings at the start or 2 or 3 ALDS games.
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Sadly, I completely agree. I'm rooting for the Rockies big time. They got a 1-0 lead, but Lester looks very tough, hitting his spots, throwing fastballs, and mixing in just enough breaking stuff.
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Right before the disaster vs Seattle in June when he was tagged for 10 and went on the DL, he started three straight, went 20.2 innings, and gave up 0 runs. If you take out that Seattle game, Wright has pitched in 20 games, gone 50.2 innings, and given up 6 earned runs for an ERA of 1.04. Take the worst game away from any other pitcher, including Sale, and their ERA is still not close to Wright's. That's why I started a thread arguing he should start games 1, 3, and 5 of the ALDS and go 2 innings in each game--because I think he will be consistent, get guys out, and set up the hard throwers--Sale, Porcello, and Sale--who actually pitch the bulk of the innings. That won't happen, of course. It's just a theory, but the theory came from watching Cash do it in Tampa and from getting very nervous about our starters in the postseason.
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I believe that because the choices for the 14 are so obvious.
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Wright. Maybe Kimbrel if a save is involved. That's about it. Sale, if anything, looks worse than last October despite a brilliant first 4 months this year. His last two starts--ditto Price's (who gave up 5 dingers in those 2 games_--do not inspire at all. Porcello might be the best of the three, but he too can get whacked. Wright made 10 appearances and pitched 13.2 innings in September with an ERA of .66.
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You betcha, red ryder.
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Here's my updated roster on Oct 2-- 11 pitchers, also the 11 highest WAR's (in descending order): Sale Price Porcello ERod Kimbrel Wright Velazquez Brasier Barnes Workman Eovaldi My one exception might be to move Poyner up because he is a lefty and drop Workman out. 14 position players. First 10 are also the top ten on the Sox in OWAR (in descending order): Betts JDM Bogaerts Beni JBJ Holt Pearce Devers Moreland Nunez. My other 4 are in order by OPS: Swihart (.613) Kinsler (.604) Vazquez (.540) Leon (.511). Kinsler's OPS is rotten for 2B. His OPS in September was .510. You expect catchers not to hit, but secondbasemen? I'd rather go with Lin, whose OWAR is .4 and OPS is .744. But that won't happen. Kinsler is the veteran--and expensive.
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A Realistic View at 2018: Part II
Maxbialystock replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
You could be right. He has the most at bats and second most games on the team (after JDM). His monthly OPS' started high, faded a tad in june, came back in July (.897) and then fell hard in August (.771) and September (.667). He hit 6 dingers in May and 6 in June and 4 total in April, July, August, and September. I think beyond question he wears down and strongly disagree with oldtimer's claim that Beni needs to swing for the fences, pull the ball more, etc. He has a very good swing and should keep it that way. Given how effective these shifts are, I like it when Beni hits to the opposite field. -
Just I reminder. I do think we need Thunder to start Friday's game thread. Is YOTN going to send him a note?
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Excellent point, notin. The postseason just got down to 10 teams and it's already been a wild ride. Rockies and Cubs both lost yesterday and are still in it.
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Absolutely true. But including the A's in the discussion is just too hard for me. Your team I know.
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Starters starting is what every MLB manager but one is doing today, so you are certainly on firm ground advocating that. As I said, I'm about 99% sure that's Cora will do if for no other reason than that Dombrowski has already declared that Sale will start the first game. I'm willing to gamble--hypothetically, of course--because: 1. I think Cash will be voted AL manager of the year because of what he has done and one the most important was regularly starting a reliever who would go 1 or 2 innings. It works. 2. I'm worried about Sale because his postseason ERA is 8.38 and because of the DL time this year followed by so-so starts, especially the last two against the Guardians and Orioles. 3. Wright has started this year and 2 years ago, and he is also comfortable relieving. Better, his knuckler looks awfully good this year and, better still, it appears to make it easier for whichever pitcher relieves him because he upsets the hitters timing. 4. The Sox rotation as a whole has been ruinous in the playoffs the last two years--no other word for it.
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That's correct, moonslav. I started a thread on Wright that proposed starting him in games 1, 3, and 5 of the ALDS--basically, when the Rays have done this season. I think his knuckler would be ideal for setting up those 3 starters (Sale, Porcello, and Sale). As it is these days, Sox starters rarely go 7 innings and often go just 5, so it's not a question of not needing a big contribution from the bullpen.
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Great question. Exactly the right one. Faith and trust are not words I use when discussing baseball. I just look at the numbers and in this case they scare me. Before the DL stay of 2 weeks, Sale was just about a shoo-in for Cy Young. Since he came back, he has struggled and for sure hasn't gone beyond 5 innings. Last two times out, he got scored on. The Yankees love to hit against lefties, especially lefties who might not have their best stuff. Remember last October when Sale also did not have his best stuff? I am not saying Sale can't do the job on Friday, but me, I'd like a little insurance because of the past month and a half and especially his last outing when the gave up 3 and could not throw more than 92 mph and sometimes threw 88 or 89 mph. Still, you have used the operative word--faith (or trust will do)--because I suspect that our rookie manager will decide as you have that faith or trust are far more important than niggling statistics and a small sampling at that. Oh, as moonslav pointed out, walks are probably not an issue with Sale. But giving up runs appears to be. To me, anyway.