Maxbialystock

I sure hope you are right, but what bothers me is that Sale actually did come back from TJS superbly. His August ERA was 2.35 and September only a little worse at 3.24. October, on the other hand, has been awful. No command, no changeup, no value to the Sox. I do not have exact numbers on his velocity, but my suspicion is that Sale, who did not throw that hard in August, yearned to get his velocity back and in doing so lost both his command and his changeup. So you could be right about next spring. But I think jacksonianmarch is right about this year.

I agree with Nick--this is a really good analysis of Sale, especially the part at the end about focusing on command over power. Greg Maddux lasted forever because of his command, but he started out as a strikeout ace. He adjusted. Sale has simply not done that, which astounds me because I think of him as the complete professional. What's happened to Chris Sale is one more example of just how difficult it is to pitch well at the MLB level. Ted Williams and his "hit a round ball with a round bat squarely" left out the fact that not even great hitters need to do that more often than 1 in 3 times. Pitchers can be less precise than round bat meeting round ball squarely, but they do need to be precise on location, throw really hard, and serve up at least three different devilish spins.

I leave the discussion of cost to moonslav, but my preference would be to try to keep the lineup we've watched in the postseason, especially Schwarber, and hopefully to bring back Iglesias as well. Keep Dalbec and Duran unless trading them helps bring back a good pitcher. Agree the rotation and bullpen both need help, but I will be fine if Bloom works to improve both while avoiding the luxury tax.

I think these middle three games on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be decisive. No, I don't expect either team to win all three, but I do think the winner of 2 of the 3 will likely get to the WS. They will be a grind for both pitching staffs. Stating the obvious, I give the Sox the edge in starters and the Astros the edge in the bullpen. Both teams have good hitting, but the Sox lineup is deeper. Renfroe, it should be noted, is fading fast because he swings at everything. The Astros have the edge in fielding despite Altuve's error--they have 8 double plays to the Sox 2. The also have 6 SB's to the Sox 1.

Actually, I think you can like both franchises. The Rays ability to compete on a low budget is incredible, but, just as you say, the Sox in the John Henry era have no peer. I would even argue that the Rays were the worthy opponent in the ALDS, making the Sox win that much more triumphant.

Meh. I've been following the Sox since 1949, so we both suffered through a lot of lousy seasons. But we are now--since 2003--in the John Henry era, which includes four WS wins and no WS losses. The Cardinals whipped the Sox and Ted Williams in 1946, but the 2004 Sox took the Cardinals four straight. If you want to argue this year's Sox team has flaws, I agree, but, as moonslav and some others--notably, Kimmi--have reminded us all along, they have a heckuva lineup and, thanks to Cora, a penchant for playing well and winning games when some of us--notably, yours truly--have about give up. Specifically, after the Yankees took 3 straight at Fenway and the Orioles then took 2 of 3, this team was dead, dead, dead going into October. Well, maybe just mostly dead because then the Sox took all 3 at the Nats, whipped Cole and the Yankees in the wild card game, stunned the Rays 3-1 in the ALDS, and now have a bonafide shot at getting to their 5th WS in the John Henry era. I do think the Astros, with or without their best starters, are a tough out. They have a good bullpen to go along with fierce hitting, good fielding (sort of), and good baserunning.

Well said. Thanks.

Dodgers are tough, no question. They had to win the wild card game before taking on the 107 win Giants with the home field advantage.

jacksonianmarch is no troll and usually writes provocative stuff with a kernel or two of truth. I myself have on occasion said the Sox defense and baserunning stink. The rotation has been bad enough to require Cora to use his bullpen early and often.

You aren't quite the Sox expert you claim to be. The 2013 Sox had the lowest ERA, 2.59, of all the postseason teams. Their postseason OPS was .664, whereas this year so far its .925. The Sox postseason ERA this year is a woeful 4.43, granted, but guess what? That's the lowest in the American League. Next lowest is the Astros 5.09 and then the Rays 6.00. The Sox defense has been better than expected in the postseason in part because Kike went back to centerfield and Schwarber, despite that horrendous toss to the pitcher at 1b, has been pretty steady there. The Sox have 1 error in 7 postseason games. Friday Altuve turned an easy GIDP into all hands safe which resulted in an unearned run. Arroyo isn't my fav at 2b, but he is clearly better than Altuve. The baserunning hasn't been great, but also hasn't done the boneheaded things other teams have done. Nevertheless, I do agree that pitching is the big question mark, which is why you think Cora is the best manager. This will be tested more in a seven game series because there will still be just 2 days off. There is little evidence that the 4 days off between ALDS and ALCS benefitted the Sox pitching staff. ERod in game 3 and Pivetta or Houck to start game 4, I think. Either way, the middle three games, back to back to back, are going to test the Sox bullpen. In the Sox seven postseason games, their bullpen has pitched 39 innings and the rotation just 26 innings. Astounding. Of those 39 bullpen innings, here are the four best, totaling 20.2 innings: Pivetta, ERA 3.12 in 8.2 innings Whitlock, 1.42 ERA in 6.1 innings (Rizzo got that 9th inning dinger off him) Ottavino ERA 0.0 in 3 innings. Taylor ERA 0.0 in 2.2 innings. Another 8 innings in relief went to Houck, whose postseason ERA is 4.50. His 5 innings and 1 run in game 2 of the ALDS were what allowed the Sox come back from Sale's disastrous first innings and 5 runs.

That sure sounds like Gibson.

Saved a run and possibly more.

Oh, stop it, will you? You know very well the Sox haven't got a chance against the Astros. The team that loses the first game in a 7 game series always loses the series, especially if that team is the Sox. Plus it's the way the Sox lost last night that rankles. Guys didn't get hits. Pitchers gave up hits and runs. Sale only went 2.2 innings. I mean, the list goes on and on. Old Red had it right: Cora has no clue what he is doing out there.

Whitlock is in there because he needs to face the Astros and now's as good a time as any. This isn't a 1 run game.

Vazquez in for Plawecki makes sense, but Plawecki wasn't half bad with Ottavino.

This is unfair, but I can't help it. Renfroe is a talented ballplayer, but, when I see him in the field or at bat, I keep thinking of the tune the Scarecrow sang in the Wizard of Oz--"If I only had a brain." At bat he just goes up there to swing a few times. In the field, he just loves to throw that ball. Sometimes he hits a dinger and sometimes he throws a guy out, but most of the time he just scares me because he has no focus.

Are you kidding? He's our best reliever in this ALCS. Last night he bailed out Chris Sale in the 3d and tonight Eovaldi in the 6th. Pay attention, for crying out loud.

Astros so far are 2 for 2 with RISP. Sox are 3 for 7.

Today we're seeing why Cora pinch hit for Renfroe last night. He's up there to swing that bat no matter what.

Actually, I blame Plawecki. When he finally called for a curve, Eovaldi got a K. Eovaldi's fastball is hittable if the batter has a reasonable expectation that's what he will see. I'm not sure whose fault it is that Eovaldi threw a lot of pitches near the middle of the zone.

You can bet I won't see a streak like this again.

Old Red seems to have disappeared from this game thread. Not hard to figure out why. He's only here to criticize Cora, and the Sox are leading 9-0.

What's the best thing that can happen when the opposing starter is pitching well with a good lead? A rain delay, courtesy of Dusty Baker. Anyone who believes that injury happened right then will believe anything. And Odorizzi will take plenty of time before throwing his first pitch. It's a pretty good assumption this was planned before the game started.

5 strikes in 11 pitches.

Smooth play by Bogey. Not that much range, but darn few errors.