Maxbialystock

Would you start Bello tonight and Paxton tomorrow night?

Agree on Houck. I would also put Whitlock in the bullpen and maybe give Crawford a shot at the rotation.

I do not disagree with your perspective on near term vs. long term. What makes me nervous is that we have no idea how long it will take for the bullpen to recover. In addition, while I too have been impressed by recent starts by Sale, Paxton, and Bello, I'm not impressed with the latest from Kluber, Houck, and especially Pivetta. Plus we are a month or more from fixing the defensive issues. Nevertheless, you are right that the Sox can surprise us--especially the hitting.

Probably true. But I believe rather emphatically that Plan B is driven by the collapse of the bullpen which has put this team into a nosedive.

Nate's a fascinating case study. He can be very, very good--no question--and this year he's borderline great: 8 starts, 53 innings (almost 7 innings per start), and an ERA of 2.70. However, the Rangers are his 6th team, and the Sox had him the longest, 5 seasons (one of which was like 2 months--2016). His best season was 2021, with the Sox, when he started 32 games, pitched 195 innings, and had a WAR of 4.6 and an ERA of 3.75. So, if anyone knew his capabilities, it was us. This does not mean he won't continue to excel for the Rangers, but I do understand the Sox reluctance to re-sign Eovaldi.

I said the Sox team ERA is 27th in MLB, not 29th. On tonight's game thread I proposed starting Bello, not Pivetta, and tomorrow night starting Paxton, who will have 5 days rest by then. With the bullpen in desperate need of arms, time to move Pivetta. Did you know that Pivetta's OPS-against the first time he pitches to the opposing team's lineup is 1.062?

You think!!?? Good word because what you say is as good an explanation as any about Casas's hitting.

I'm looking at ESPN MLB team stats, and it says the Sox team ERA is 5.09, ranked 27th. St Louis is 4.46, ranked 20th. Cincinnati is 26th with an ERA of 5.01. I also went to MLB standings (where the Sox are 22-20). The Sox have given up 225 runs, which puts them 26th in that category. The White Sox, Royals, and Athletics have given up more runs.

Thanks. I had that impression but not the data.

Nope. I'd start Bello tonight and Paxton tomorrow night because both have had or will have had the requisite 5 days rest. Bello's last start was May 10th and Paxton's was May 12th. And I'd put Pivetta in the bullpen for long relief. I've said this elsewhere but it bears repeating. When Pivetta starts, his OPS against for the first time through the opposing lineup is 1.062, so maybe coming out of the bullpen would be good for him. In addition, right now the bullpen is absolutely desperate for arms and the rotation is not.

Meh. "In the moment" is way, way sweeter when your team shows they can win. And the nice thing about MLB--unique of all major professional sports in America--is that winning is anything over freaking .500. Like right now. But at this specific moment, with the Sox at 22-20, I feel like Denzel Washington in the movie Flight when the elevator assembly jackscrew breaks and they are in an uncontrolled dive. With the Sox that translates to no freaking bullpen and sending Reyes out to pitch the 9th against the Mariners. As moonslav says, the rotation looks promising. The hitting has been terrific--4th in MLB in runs scored. The defense stinks, but, frankly, the defense is always on the margin. Games are mostly won and lost via pitching and hitting. But your team is DOA--your elevator assembly jackscrew is broken--if your bullpen stinks like ours does.

I love being 22-20, way better than I expected. I agree the rotation now shows promise--especially Sale, Paxton, and Bello. My point is that in the near term this team is hugely vulnerable. Tonight, for example, Seattle should win easily. Bello could do better tomorrow night, but Seattle is going with a lefty and the Sox best hitters are mostly from the left side. Then comes a 9 game trip, May 16-24, to the West Coast against the Padres, Angels, and Diamondbacks, and I do not see the bullpen recovering before that road trip. Dumping Brasier was the right move, but in the near term it doesn't accomplish much because the rest of the bullpen is in disarray. The defense will remain under suspicion. And, while I like the promise of the rotation, these days the stats guys are telling managers to avoid having starters face a lineup a third time. In short, you cannot hope to win without a freaking bullpen. Sale pitched 8 innings and gave up 1 run--and the Jansen lost it in the 9th. There is also the possibility the hit parade might be losing a beat.

What plan B?

Exactly.

Meanwhile, however, there are games to play. Repeating the "bumpy flight" analogy, this team is in a tailspin. They've lost 4 straight and literally have no bullpen worth mentioning. Pivetta starts tonight and, season to date, opposing lineups collective OPS against him in the first time through the lineup is a frightening 1.062. Wednesday Seattle starts Marco Gonzales, a lefty who won his last two starts against Houston and Detroit. We will be sending out Bello, whom I like, but we still won't have a bullpen. Plus right now the hitting seems to be struggling--and it's still the same old defense undercutting the pitching.

Castillo vs. Pivetta, both righties. Huge edge to Seattle in pitching, just like last night. Pivetta stinks, and the Sox bullpen is in a state of collapse. First time facing Pivetta, opposing lineups' collective OPS has been an unreal 1.061. 2d time through, OPS .789. 3d time through, OPS .634. If those numbers hold true again tonight and Pivetta gets hammered, I think Cora will leave him in for at least 100 pitches to save the bullpen arms.

I always keep the sound off. If it's on cable, I will show closed captions.

Great point!! I had no idea.

Timely. The Sox are 22-20, which is better than I expected. The Sox are 4th in MLB in runs scored--with a "no name" lineup--which is fantastic. But the team ERA is now 27th in MLB, definitely a disappointment. The 8 game winning streak ended 9 days ago. Since then, just as you say, the rotation seems to have taken a turn for the better. But the bullpen's wheels have literally come off--signified last night when Reyes took the mound for the 9th inning. Winck got hammered by St Louis. Jansen, our $16M closer, got hammered twice by St Louis. Schreiber hasn't pitched because he's hurt and is probably going on the IL. Brasier is gone. Bleier could be right behind him. Bernardino's ERA for May is 6.14. Assuming Jansen is actually OK, I see two decent relievers for tonight: Martin and Jansen. My guess is Whitlock and Crawford, both of whom can start, will go to the bullpen in an effort to reconstruct one. So will Houck, with Pivetta getting the 5th starting spot after Sale, Paxton, Bello, and Kluber. Finally, the "no name" lineup seems to be struggling: 5 runs total in the last 3 games against the Cardinals and Mariners. To paraphrase Bette Davis in All About Eve, "fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy season."

Sox are 22-20, which is better than I expected, 27th in team ERA, which has to be a disappointment; and 4th in runs scored, which is completely unexpected. The 8 game winning streak ended 9 days ago. Since then, the rotation looks better, but the bullpen is a disaster, and the hitting--the "no name" lineup that has been so great--is looking less great. To paraphrase Bette Davis from All About Eve, "fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy season."

Sending Reyes out to pitch the 9th was embarrassing but necessary and not the first time it’s been done by the Sox. The bullpen is hurting bad, but the games continue.

Looks like I was wrong about sending Jansen out Saturday. There really was no one else. The Sox bullpen is broken.

I’d say the Sox bullpen is in full collapse. This is the fourth straight game in which they have opened the floodgates. The four Sox starters in those games went 24 innings while giving up 10 runs. The bullpen 12 innings so far and 18 runs.

Assuming the Sox lose, Winck and Jansen should be available tomorrow. But will they be needed?

Dugo lines out ever so softly with the bases loaded. Sox still with one lonely run.