Maxbialystock

Not grim at all. I've been reading talksox and learning a lot, and it's pretty clear hitting is vastly overrated. As long as we get some good defensive guys in, the Sox will be fine. Defense is the name of the game and neither of those guys--Duvall, Turner-- are much good at it. We should also dump Duran and Casas who both have negative DWAR's.

Wrong! When CB took over, the Sox had just undergone one of the truly great nosedives in Sox history. DD, not CH, presided over that collapse in 2019--after the best season in Sox history in 2018. And he did it with much the same players, less Kimbrel (who stunk in the 2018 postseason), they had in 2018--Mookie, Beni, JDM, JBJ, Bogey, Devers, Sale, Price, Eovaldi, etc, etc. The problem was the pitching collapsed in 2019. CB inherited a mess as well as an irate owner who 1) did not want to get in a bidding war with the Dodgers and other clubs to retain Mookie (and later did the same with Bogey); 2) did not want to continue offering huge contracts to starters who don't deliver; 3) wanted to do things differently from what he had been doing, which basically was leading MLB in payroll and not getting into the postseason. About #3 above. At the end of the movie Moneyball, the actor playing John Henry comments how little the A's paid per win in 2002 vs. how much the Yankees had paid--and promptly offered Billy Beane (Brad Pitt) the highest GM salary in sports to work the same magic in Boston. We all know that in fact JH has spent plenty--actually, the fans have paid because the Sox always show a profit--on players, at least until recently. So let's take a quick peek at the following scorecard. The Mets, Yankees, and Padres have the three highest payrolls in MLB and all have losing records. The Sox have the 15th highest payroll in MLB and have a winning record. I am not at all saying Cora or Bloom is perfect. Far from it. But I am saying that John Henry--far more than Chaim Bloom--made the crucial decision to do more with less and that it's too soon to say it's the disaster you claim it is. In fact, compared to the GM's (or Chief Baseball Officers) of the Mets, Yankees, and Padres, Chaim Bloom is the pick of the litter. And this. Being ranked 15th in MLB payrolls is unprecedented for the Sox in the John Henry era and probably in the last 50 years.

I love great defense--it's the poetry of baseball vs. the prose of hitting and pitching. But the simple fact is that the Sox have mostly excelled in the John Henry era because they invested most heavily in hitting and pitching. There have definitely been some good fielding Soxers at almost every position, but fielding was and is secondary to hitting. "Good field, no hit," generally applies to guys still in the minors. Do you remember the 2013 Sox team? They had two excellent fielding SS's--Stephen Drew and Jose Iglesias--and one so-so fielding SS (who actually played 3B that year), Xander Bogaerts. Guess who took over the starting SS job and held onto it for 8 freaking years? Story is a better fielder than Bogey, but some talksoxers want Bogey back because he can hit. This year Casas and Duran are fan favs--and favs on talksox too. Both have negative DWAR's, but both have OPS's over .800. Duvall, I agree, is no great shakes in CF (or RF or LF), but his OPS right now is .933 so he is going to be in that lineup. Story, on the other hand, is a good (not great) defensive SS, but we are all mad at him because we need him to hit the dang ball. And we are right. Screw the defense. This team needs to hit and especially drive runs in. And the pitching is a lot worse than the hitting. As for the defense, I agree it's probably the worst defense in MLB. Bad as it is, however, the Sox still plays errorless ball 98 freaking percent of the time, and the best defense in MLB plays errorless ball 99% of the time. I'm willing to concede those percentages don't include double play balls that only yielded one out, catchable flies/grounders that weren't, etc. But I'm not willing to concede they are more important than the pitching and hitting and the real reason why the Sox are struggling. Thus my example of Kike Hernandez, who was branded on talksox as the worst SS in the history of the MLB (I'm exaggerating, but not by much) and the real reason why the Sox were losing games. Well, guess what--Kike's gone to the Dodgers, and they have been winning like crazy since he got there. And the Sox? Despite the returns of Sale, Whitlock, Houck, and Story, the Sox are worse than when Kike was on the team.

This is just nuts. I'm sorry, but it is. The first criterion for getting to The Show is whether the player can hit. See, for example, JBJ in 2014, the year he inherited CF when Ellsbury went to the Yankees (for over $200M). Great defensive outfielder--arm and routes to the ball--but struggled at the plate, which meant he kept bouncing back and forth that season between Boston and Pawtucket. Finally he started hitting in August and stuck in Boston--and for several seasons later, including 2018. Bogey was never a great defensive SS and probably never got a single vote for a gold glove, but he sure could hit the dang ball, and that's what counts on most teams but especially the Sox who must hit (and score runs) to win. Fenway is a hitters park. Right now we are semi-nuts about Casas and Duran, both of whom have negative DWAR's but also OPS's over .800. Plus Duran is a speed merchant on the basepaths. But my favorite example is the 3 or 4 games--back when the middle infielders couldn't hit spit--when he put Turner at 2b so that Casas could play 1b, Yoshida could DH, and he could still get 3 good bats in the OF. The Sox defense right now, with or without Rafaela, is almost decent. I think it is instructive, however, that in the last six games the other teams--the Dodgers and the Astros--made all (or almost all) the errors and still won 5 out of 6 games. Why? Because their hitting and pitcher were better. Defense is a distant 3d. Did you not know that the very worst fielding team in MLB right now plays error-free baseball 98% of the time? Absolutely true. If Rafaela can hit, I'm completely in favor of keeping him in Boston, especially with Reyes on the IL.

I hope we don't go there. Don't forget the 48 games in a row with just 3 off days, today being one of them. That's a brutal schedule and still has 21 days to run. The schedule has exacerbated the Sox pitching problems. Less explicable is the problem with scoring runs because right now the Sox have some pretty decent lefty (Casas, Devers, Duran(IL), Yoshida, Dugo, McGuire) and righty (Duvall, Turner, Reyes(also IL), Wong, Refsnyder, and Story (who hasn't delivered yet)) bats. Even the fielding has improved with the return of Story. In recent series vs the Dodgers and Astros, the Sox have made far fewer errors, but lost 5 of 6 games.

Horsehockey. The 2018 Sox were the best Sox team ever, but the 2019 team disintegrated because the pitching did--and the pitching has yet to recover. moonslav has made a strong case that the Sox have always been lousy at developing pitching and therefore went out and "bought" pitching. That reached a peak when DD bought/traded for Price, Sale, Eovaldi, Kimbrel, and maybe a couple others for the 2018 team. But, then the 2019 team--which still had almost everyone, including Mookie, from 2018 except Kimbrel--collapsed. I'm almost certain JH then said, "never again," by which he meant no more long term contracts for starters. He also fired DD and hired CB. Mookie is a fantastic player. Heck, this year he's even played SS and 2B. But he can't pitch. The Angels have two fantastic players in Ohtani and Mike Trout, and they can't even make the postseason.

Of course the Sox benefitted. But we see Astros/Dodgers errors differently, as part of the game. I'm sticking with my 98% fielding percentage comment and saying talksoxers over-react to Sox errors and especially to "plays that should have been made but weren't errors."

Good decision, I think. The lineup had that one fantastic rally, then just rolled over. Jansen needed the work, but didn't need to go 2 innings.

I really don't think that's going to happen, but I also don't know what JH is thinking/planning.

Both the Dodgers and the Astros committed more errors than the Sox in the two most recent series. And those errors by opposing teams are invariably ignored by the cognescenti on talksox because they are accepted as part of the game. Errors happen. But nor for the Sox fielders--those errors are criminal offenses which cry out for justice to be served. The Sox do in fact lead MLB in errors, but their fielding percentage is still 98 freaking percent--bad as they are. Fielding--even when you plays that you/we think should have been made but were not counted as errors--have not hurt the Sox the way the hitting and pitching have.

Back then fewer teams and, more importantly, you only had to win one game in the postseason. I do my share of griping, but I have enjoyed watching this team this season. Right now the pitching and hitting are struggling. Way back in the first post moonslav said Crawford has been the ace this month--and he promptly got beaten to a pulp. That's baseball.

The Sox are losing because they’re pitching and hitting stink. When they get walked, no one brings them home.

What we need is an error by the Sox so we can once again blame the loss on lousy defense. That’s baloney of course. The are struggling because of hitting and pitching. The headline for last nights game was the defense blew it, which ignored the fact that the Astros had two errors to our one and the 6-2 score.

Nothing wrong with that idea. Story still isn't hitting, and Reyes is on the IL.

Well said, as always, even when we disagree. About the 48 games with just 3 days off. I think I mentioned it first on talksox--over a month ago. I thought it was a big deal and was right. However, I agree with whoever says most MLB teams are playing lots of games in Aug-Sep. And my suspicion, which I ask you to comment on, is that the Sox have not yet built a system--nor do they have the expertise to do so--to develop good pitchers and by that I mean good pitchers in volume. As you and others have written, you really need to be able to feed AAA pitchers to the big club--and send some back to AAA--to have fresh arms. But they can't just be fresh, they also need to be able to get MLB hitters out. I therefore offer Brasier as Exhibit A as to how clueless the Sox are about pitchers. He stunk here for 2-3 months and has been gangbusters for 2 months with the Dodgers. They know something our guys don't know. Feel free to refute me, pound on me, whatever. But you gave me this idea when you said some time ago that historically the Sox have pretty much relied on paying for good pitchers developed elsewhere. DD was the very embodiment of that by bringing in Price, Sale, Eovaldi, and Kimbrel and maybe a couple of others. And CB seems to be the anti-DD.

Don't kid yourself. The fans pay those salaries, not John Henry.

Go to MVP 78's thread.

Good point.

I believe JH has put a damper on multiyear contracts for starters and that DD was the one who poisoned that well. To be fair, DD made several good moves--JDM, Price, Sale, Eovaldi, Kimbrel, et al--to improve an already good Sox team into the best Sox team ever in 2018. But what no doubt infuriated JH was the very next season, 2019, that great 2018 team was still very much intact and could not make it to the postseason, primarily because the big money guys, Sale and Price, turned sour. So DD was fired and CB hired with the guidance to avoid big contracts for starters.

Indeed he was. However, I don't think his health was the real issue, but rather Cora, Tek, and the pitching coach's collective judgment on how tired the bullpen was. I think they discussed that topic before the game and agreed to do something like what in fact happened--Barraclough pitching the last 4.1 innings and giving up a boatload of runs--provided certain things didn't happen. First thing that didn't happen was Sale pitching at least 5 and preferably 6 effective innings. Second was the Sox with a good lead of, say, 3 runs, when the bullpen was called for. The third was Barraclough being able to hold that lead until at least the 7th and preferably the 9th inning when Jansen would be available.

You and I seem to be on the same side of this argument--to the degree that we both recognize that Cora's decision to stay with Barraclough in the 6th inning was carefully considered and in fact had a rationale. I agree with you that such a drastic action--talksoxers are furious and would gladly lynch Cora and/or Bloom--might not have turned the tide. Stay tuned for the next 2 games. But I would ask you whether you agree the schedule--48 games with 3 days off--isn't the biggest culprit here? It seems to me unprecedented. Is it? The 48 games started on August 4, which was before Story's return (8 Aug) or Sale's (11 Aug) or Whitlock's (13 Aug) or Houck's (22 Aug). If those four were the cavalry coming to the rescue, maybe they were a tad late because all four still needed MLB games to get back to their best (if that were possible). I think they did help, but Sale and Houck definitely contributed to the problem of starters not eating enough innings, which exacerbated what the brutal schedule was already doing--putting immense pressure on the bullpen.

I guess that's me, the Lone Defender. Four points in support of Cora-- 1. He's done this before this season--sacrificed one reliever to rest the bullpen. In fact, you can argue he did that yesterday with Murphy. 2. Sox are in the middle of 48 games with 3 days off--a brutal schedule and especially taxing on the bullpen. 3. The rotation has exacerbated the pressure on the bullpen by eating fewer and fewer innings. 4. Tonight, I completely agree, was especially galling. However, it was just a 1 run lead and the bullpen was going to have to pitch 4.1 excellent innings to keep that lead. Barraclough did get that 1 out in the 5th, but then there were 4 more innings for the likes of Martin, Winck, Schreiber, Jansen, et al.

I agree he was a waste of $10M, but no way, no how did he cost the Sox 15 games. You can't count games he didn't pitch in.

Whatalotta. Barraclough knew exactly why he was out there and almost certainly was a willing participant. He pitched--and got hammered--to give the rest of the bullpen a break during an absolutely brutal schedule. Your comparison to OJ is unseemly.

Of course he has "thrown the white flag" before this game. That's the whole freaking point. The Sox are playing 48 games with just 3 days off, the rotation is not eating enough innings, and Cora only has one freaking bullpen. Like you, I hated leaving Barraclough in for the 6th when he gave up 6 runs and before which the Sox had a 1 run lead. But, unlike you, I think Cora always has a reason, usually a good one, for whatever he decides. He did not want to waste his best arms when yet another starter couldn't go 5 innings and the Sox only had a 1 run lead.