Maxbialystock

Duran LF OPS vs. righties .883 Yoshida DH .880 Turner 2B .791 Devers 3B .835 Duvall CF .913 Casas 1B .850 Verdugo RF .831 Wong C .782 Chang SS .552 Cora going with his best bats against probably the Giants best starter (his last start notwithstanding).

All due respect, but this time I think you are glossing over two key facts: 1) pitching is almost always better (by any team) when off days are inserted, which we normally see every postseason; 2) the Sox do not have pitching depth, period, and have unquestionably relied on off days to get them through July. As for guys coming off the IL, I agree Story will help, as will McGuire (who could quickly re-injure himself since the current injury was caused by simply swinging a freaking bat). But please don't try to sell me on Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, and Houck. Kluber's useless, which he is currently reminding us of. Houck and Whitlock will be lucky to return before September, plus both are better suited for the bullpen where they may or may not be effective as long relievers. I do not see either of them as an effective starter this season. Right now Sale seems to a good bet to return in August, which is great. However, every time he pitches these days Cora has to worry whether he will get Good Sale (who can be very good) of Not So Good Sale (who can be just plain lousy). Plus Sale is injury-prone. This year, his best since 2019, he lasted just 11 games before his shoulder went bad and has kept him out for 2 freaking months. As for rotating guys back and forth from Worcester, my understanding is that there are no good arms in Worcester, but plenty of guys who can give you a really bad inning at the MLB level. I hate being a pessimist, so please explain in detail how great the pitching is going to be during those 48 games with 2 days off.

Interesting. Thanks.

My experience, flying across 8 time zones 6 or so times a year for 5 years, is that going east is much harder to adapt to than going west.

New/old topic, the schedule. Starting August 4, which is next week, the Sox play 48 games with just two days off. That is a slog. It's also the direct opposite of the lazy days of July during which the Sox have had many days off and a record of 14-5, the best in MLB. All that ends next week. Well, not right away, of course. In fact, the Sox will have had another day off, August 3, before a 10 game homestand: 3 vs the Jays; 4 vs. the lowly Royals; and 3 vs. Detroit. Then come 3 vs. the lowly Nats in DC. So, depending on whether Bloom picks up another decent starter in the next 3 days, the Sox could go 9-4 in those first 13 games. But by then, especially with this heat, the players, especially the pitchers, should be getting tired, just when they face the Yankees for 3 in NYC, the Astros for 4 in Houston, the Dodgers for 3 back in Boston, and the Astros for 3 in Boston. The Sox could easily go 4-9 in those 13 games. And so on. The last two months of this season are both a great opportunity and a real grind for the players. They will be tested, including nineteen September games against AL East teams.

I have to be honest and say I agree with Bloom--if in fact he intends to hang onto both of them. Obviously, I'm high on Paxton, especially right now with the rotation decimated by injuries. Plus I don't have high hopes for Whitlock or Houck as starters when they do return. And Kluber ain't going to start again for the Sox. That leaves Sale, who can only help if he returns as Good Sale, the one we saw for about 8 starts this season. Moreover, the infield, outfield, and catcher positions have shaped up nicely, especially when Story returns, which should be soon. Plus McGuire is a good second catcher. The Sox currently have five outfielders--Yoshida, Duvall, Dugo, Duran, and Refsnyder--so losing Duvall should be no big deal because he has struggled since returning from that injury to I think his wrist. Nevertheless, he is a righty bat with power, which is a great fit for The Fens if his stroke ever comes back.

Meh. Everyone of those "uncontrolled" factors also apply to ERA, which, imperfect though it too can be, is still used regularly to assess how effective a pitcher is. If ERA is valid, so is CERA (with large enough samples).

First and foremost, I am completely incapable of that kind of analysis of Bloom. I just don't know enough, which means I'm too old and too lazy to do the research. Second, however, I prefer to look at the big picture, which in this case must include John Henry. We know he not only picked Bloom, but has probably given him guidance on how much to spend and where/how. As you have already pointed out, historically the Sox have not been good at developing pitching and therefore have relied on buying them or trading for them. That included some large contracts, most recently to/for Price and Sale. I think JH has told Bloom, "never again." I think you will agree that's a tough row to hoe for Chaim Bloom. Did I forget to mention that this year's Sox salaries are ranked 15th in MLB--the lowest in the John Henry era and probably the lowest in 40 years or more? Therefore, third, I am fine with what Bloom has done and continues to do. I don't disagree he's made mistakes, but, especially in comparison to DD who inherited both a plethora of great talent and a free hand in buying arms, bats, you name it, I think his task has been infinitely more difficult than any of his recent predecessors.

First and foremost, I am completely incapable of that kind of analysis of Bloom. I just don't know enough, which means I'm too old and too lazy to do the research. Second, however, I prefer to look at the big picture, which in this case must include John Henry. We know he not only picked Bloom, but has probably given him guidance on how much to spend and where/how. As you have already pointed out, historically the Sox have not been good at developing pitching and therefore have relied on buying them or trading for them. That included some large contracts, most recently to/for Price and Sale. I think JH has told Bloom, "never again." As you have convincingly argued, that's a tough row to hoe for Chaim Bloom. Did I forget to mention that this year's Sox salaries are ranked 15th in MLB--the lowest in the John Henry era and probably the lowest in 40 years or more? Therefore, third, I am fine with what Bloom has done and continues to do. I don't disagree he's made mistakes, but, especially in comparison to DD who inherited both a plethora of great talent, but also a free hand in buying arms, bats, you name it, I think his task has been infinitely more difficult than any of his recent predecessors.

Agree.

What reputation are you referring to? In the John Henry era, now in its 3d decade, the Sox have not had that reputation even though they definitely fell apart in 2011, which cost Francona his job. Four WS wins (and no losses) in the JH era is one more than any other team and three more than the Yankees. Just two years ago a throw-together Sox team won 92 games, beat the Yankees in the wild card, the 100 win Rays in the ALDS, and finally lost, 4 games to 2, to the Astros in the ALCS. Last year's Sox did not fall apart. They struggled from the outset. All that said, I don't disagree that getting a wild card this year is far from a certainty. The Sox are playing great right now, but are about to play (Aug 4-Sep 20) 48 games with just two days off, and their rotation is 3 + Pivetta. I have my doubts about Kluber, Houck, and Whitlock, but think "good" Sale would make a real difference. So Bloom getting another reliable starter is almost essential. The problem is those guys can be pricey in prospects.

Excellent point. I also think Wong is smart, which translates to being a good learner.

As I said elsewhere, starting August 4 (next week) the Sox play 48 games during which they get just 2 days off. They badly need a 5th starter (assuming Pivetta qualifies as the 4th starter when he comes in from the bullpen in the 2d or 3d inning). So I am chagrinned at the cost (in prospects) of getting what amounts to a loaner, that is, a pitcher who becomes a free agent after this season. At the same time, it's hard not to be enthusiastic about the Sox right now: 14-5 in July despite a decimated rotation and basically one catcher (a small exaggeration).

Actually, I think the best infield lineup--when Story returns, which should be soon--is Devers 3B, Story SS, Turner 2B, and Casas 1B. That is far from ideal defensively, but absolutely the best hitting infield for the Sox and it doesn't require any trades or new faces. However, Turner is 37 and probably shouldn't play 2B every day.

You're right. CERA numbers are real and specific. They are a given pitcher's ERA with a given catcher behind the plate.

I've said that pitchers can have their ups and downs regardless of the catcher. So, for example, small samples of CERA can be misleading. But moonslav has done a lot of research and provided some compelling data on CERA's even though he too agrees pitchers have ups and downs regardless of the catcher. I might add, however, that a good catcher can mitigate a bad game a pitcher is having. What I have yet to see by anyone on the other other side of the argument--including you--is any data whatsoever on the unreliability of CERA. So, if you don't mind, could you provide some data that show catchers have very little real effect on how well a pitcher does and especially on his ERA.

You're right. Guilty as charged. I think CERA or something like it is real, but also agree pitchers can have ups and downs regardless of who is catching. But, as written, you can't quite follow my argument. That's why I added the ESPN comment that so far the Sox have the best record in MLB in July--14-5. That should never have been possible because throughout those 19 games Cora had (and still has) just 3 starters + Pivetta coming in from the bullpen. However, it helped that McGuire was also out, so Cora was able to use Wong in 15 of those 19 games in which opposing teams scored a total of 76 runs (some of which were unearned) or 4 runs per game. To me it's impossible not to credit Wong for improved pitching--as well as winning 14 of 19 games--when the rotation was in a shambles. The only thing "wrong" with those 19 games is they're a small sample. Nevertheless, I find them persuasive. More Wong means better pitching (fewer runs by opposing teams) and more wins.

If we agree Wong is significantly better, at some point we have to consider that his effectiveness results in better pitching and better defense which must inevitably lead to fewer runs scored and something related to CERA. The problem with CERA is trying to define/measure it. On ESPN last night they said the Sox have the best record in MLB in July, 14-5. July is also the month when Cora has done everything possible to play Wong without wearing him out. It’s also the month of the 3 man rotation plus Pivetta. And, thankfully, lots of days off.

Right now I think our six most useful and productive position players--in no particular order--are Devers, Yoshida, Turner, Duran, Casas, and Wong. Dugo still has the highest WAR, 2.7, which suggests I'm an idiot, and I definitely like his defense. But his hitting right now is worrisome.

A little off topic from the above but highly relevant to this season. Starting August 4, the Sox will play a game every day from August 4 through Sep 20 with exactly 2 days off, Aug 14 and Sep 7. That's 48 games in a row with 2 days off. I think all those games argue strongly for beefing up the pitching, especially the rotation.

He had that one very good bullpen session, 30 pitches, about 2 weeks ago. But today just reconfirmed he should not start again for the Sox. And maybe, as you suggest, not pitch again for the Sox. He certainly has not been missed.

Absolutely.

Sox win 2 vs the Braves after coming from behind, 0-3!!!!!! A lot of heroes tonight, including Bello, the bullpen, Duvall, Casas, Devers, Turner, Dugo, and probably others.

Did I say Duvall is over the hill, untradeable, etc, etc? Yes, I did. Boy am I smart. Great dinger, Duvall!!!!!

Duran, Yoshida--yes, Yoshida--Duvall, and Dugo are all hitless tonight. Turner has two lovely rbi's from that double, and Devers and Casas have solo dingers. What an amazing game this is, and I'm getting to watch it even though normally, as it was last night, it would be blacked out.