Maxbialystock

BINGO my aunt fanny. Before we go after the manager for something he did on Sunday, let's look at what his players did 2 days later in last night's game-- 1. Starter Crawford stunk, giving up 5 ER in 3.2 innings. 2. Reliever Jacques did Crawford no favors by coming in with the bases loaded and 2 outs and HBP'ing the first two batters he faced. 3. After that, the bullpen, including Jacques, held the Rays scoreless for 6.1 innings. Fantastic! 4. However, the lineup scored a grand total of 3 earned runs in the game because the other 2 runs occurred because of 2 errors by the Rays. 5. Even with a man on 2d base and no one out in the 10th inning, the Sox failed to score. 6. I did not see Duvall fail to catch something, but did see him make an extremely clutch throw from RF to get the final out in the 10th inning and prevent the Rays from scoring the winning run. 7. Before Jansen gave up that dinger in the 11th, the Sox lineup again failed to bring a man home from 2d base with no one out. As far as I'm concerned, this loss is on Crawford, Jacques, and, once again, the Sox weak hitting lineup that only scored 3 earned runs and then twice failed to bring a guy home from 2d base in the 10th and 11th innings.

No, you don't agree because you insist that ERA's are bunk because fielders make tons of mistakes that aren't counted as errors. You only beat the drum on defense, not on pitching or on hitting.

This is not credible because you have zero hard evidence. Go to all the box scores--or better still the pitch by pitch replay you can get on mlb.com--and cite specific examples of 8-12 games lost specifically because of the defense and nothing else. I hasten to add that the Sox lose in 9 innings last night without the two Rays errors which led to 2 unearned runs. The two Sox errors led to 0 unearned runs. The Sox are ranked 21st in team ERA. I know you and many others despise ERA, but over time it's been a consistent marker on whether or not the Sox will get to the postseason. Below are the Sox rankings in team ERA and whether or not they made it to the postseason. 2022, 25th, no 2021, 15th, yes 2019, 19th, no 2018, 8th, yes 2017, 4th, yes 2016, 9th, yes 2015, 25th, no 2014, 23d, no 2013, 14th, yes 2012, 27th, no 2011, 22d, no 2010, 22d, no 2009, 16th, yes 2008, 9th, yes 2007, 2d, yes 2006, 26th, no 2005, 24th, yes 2004, 11th, yes 2003, 17th, yes 2002, 7th, no 2005 (ERA 24th, yes postseason), and 2002 (ERA 7th, no postseason) are the two exceptions in 20 seasons. I skipped 2020 because I don't think it was a real season. But, FYI, the Sox ERA was 28th and they didn't make it to the postseason.

Agree with the velocity, but, when they are hit really hard, the infielders get a break in terms of hit or error--scorers usually say hit. Unpredictable bounces don't automatically become hits, but some of them do. Agree on the time between catching and throwing, but I think we can agree that's a big deal maybe 10-20% of the time. Also--and this is a a point that supports your view--a late throw is rarely called an error. What I freely admit I've ignored is the issue of range. Some of the best infielders--I mean gold glove infielders-- can accrue more errors simply because of their greater range. I think that's less likely for an outfielder, but completely agree that the best outfielders have greater range because of their speed, but even more for their routes/anticipation.

On the worst team, 98% of them are fielded correctly/adequately. The challenge for hitters, which you blithely gloss over, is hitting a round ball with a round bat squarely--and even some/lots of those are fielded for outs. Hitting is way, way tougher than fielding and a batting average of .300 is way above average. The challenge for pitchers is consistently (2/3 of the time) hitting that infinitesimal strike zone--preferably 66% of the time, preferably not in the middle of the strike zone (so inches count), and definitely with a tremendous effort including imparting spin on the ball. Starters do that maybe 90-100 times a game. Pitching is much, much harder than fielding. And the challenge for fielders is simply to catch/field a ball with a massive glove, and to throw it to someone, but with nowhere near the accuracy of a pitcher. Thus are 98% of hit and thrown balls fielded correctly and thrown accurately enough.

You may trust/believe those fWAR numbers, but I sure don't. The overall fWAR's number in the left column are OK, but the offense and defense numbers are way out of whack. That is, if WAR still means "wins above replacement."

I'm not yet ready to include the cosmos into my thinking.

I did not know they had DWAR's for DH's. My goodness gracious. Right now JDM's overall WAR is 1.1 for 97 games--with an OPS of .856 plus 25 dingers and 78 rbi's. His salary is $10M. Yoshida's overall WAR is +1.4 for 121 games--with an OPS of .821 plus 15 dingers and 68 rbi's. His salary is $16M.

I only know what I see on the field of play. That said, you have a much better grasp of what's going on in the Sox system than do I. Of the four you mention, I think Bello and Casas have progressed nicely, that Rafaela has proven nothing, and that Devers may have decided good is plenty good enough now that he has that big contract.

I know. But to say he got a -0.8 DWAR for three freaking games is absurd.

Good point because I remember how good they were in April. Yesterday was a huge surprise, especially after the Rays scored 3 in the 1st and their starter just mowed down the Sox lineup with K after K.

I cannot contest your comment about the Rays incredible timing on letting players go and/or acquiring them because I don't keep track. As for finding baseball talent and developing it, you could be right that the Dodgers, Braves, and even the Orioles have been better. However, to me the key point is that the Sox have been lousy at it and over-relied on buying talent developed by other teams. Brasier is just the latest example of the ineptitude of the Sox coaches.

Are you unaware that a DH automatically gets a negative DWAR? JDM's is -0.8. I do agree that Yoshida's overall WAR, +1.4, is a key factor to consider, but I also think there will continue be games in which Cora will want to have someone else DH and Yoshida to play LF, which is the perfect position for less gifted outfielders. He played LF yesterday and acquitted himself quite well. That also allowed Turner to DH and Casas to play 1B.

Agree. The Rays have a terrific system for finding and developing talent at relatively low cost, and the results on the field of play are impressive to see. To some degree, one can argue the Dodgers (who have a former Rays executive) are doing something similar, but are also willing to spend big for some players. The two teams have similar records: Dodgers 84-52; Rays 83-55. However, the Dodgers payroll, 6th highest in MLB, is $239M; and the Rays payroll is $79M, 27th highest in MLB. I do think that both the Rays and the Dodgers are simply smarter than the Sox about finding and developing baseball talent. And right now my favorite--but no doubt unfair--example is Brasier, who was a disaster for the Sox for two months and has been lights out for two months with the Dodgers. Kike might be another example although, honestly, I don't think the Sox miss Kike.

Let's try this. Can we agree the 2018 Sox were probably the best Sox team ever? If we can, here are the worst DWAR's, from the bottom up, from the 2018 Sox--followed by the worst DWAR's from the 2023 Sox. 2018 Sox Nunez, 119 games, DWAR -1.5 JDM 57 games, -1.4 Bogey 136 games, -1.0 Devers 116 games, -0.9 Benintendi, 153 games, -0.6 Moreland, 116 games, -0.5 Swihart, 65 games, -0.4 Pearce, 35 games, -0.4 Holt, 108 games, -0.1 2023 Sox Yoshida, 73 games, -1.4 Casas, 115 games -0.9 Turner, 53 games -0.7 Duvall, 73 games, -0.5 Valdez, 36 games, -0.5 Duran, 103 games, -0.4 Devers, 129 games, -0.3 Refsnyder, 67 games, -0.3 McGuire, 51 games, -0.2 Urias, 25 games, -0.1 If you're wondering, here are the top five from both teams-- 2018 Mookie 135 games, +1.8 Leon, 87 games, +0.9 JBJ, 150 games, +0.4 Kinsler, 37 games, +0.2 Vazquez, 77 games, +0.2 2023 Wong, 108 games, +1.7 Verdugo, 122 games, +1.0 Story, 17 games, +0.5 Reyes, 56 games, +0.1 Kike, 99 games, +0.1

In the history of the universe no team's defense has been able to save a lousy pitching staff. Also, you seem to be unaware that all other MLB teams also give up runs because of errors or other misplays by the defense. You and others also seem to be unaware of the the fact that the primary skill every lineup player brings to the game is his ability to hit. I would make an exception for the two catchers except that both are about average hitters compared to other MLB catchers. Casas has a terrible DWAR but today we saw again why he is so doggone valuable to this team. In fact, none of Duvall, Tuner, Yoshida, Devers, Refsnyder, McGuire, Duran, or Casas has a positive DWAR.

Sure would.

If you mean hitting and pitching, I agree that's always game to game, but I honestly thought the Rays hitting and pitching were simply better--and today I was dead wrong. The Rays are still probably better on the basepaths--despite Devers SB--but the Sox defense was fine today.

Yes, they have.

One game proves nothing. As a fan I couldn't be happier or, for that matter, more hopeful. But it's still just one game.

OK, smartass, what do you have to say about the Sox winning 7-3--in the Trop, yet? I'd say there's at least 4 things you got wrong.

I disagree it was that catchable, but you knew that. The bigger issue is harping on the Rays defense when they are losing 7-3 mostly because the Sox pitching has been excellent after the 1st inning and the Sox hitters have produced a 3 run dinger and a 2 run dinger. It's all about hitting and pitching.

It was a fantastic call on your part.

Wow. Just wow. Two dingers and a 7-3 lead after being behind 3-0 and then 3-1 after 5 innings. Casas with 4 rbi's and Yoshida with 2. Of course, both have significant negative DWAR's, so here's hoping Bloom can somehow dump both of them for maybe a reliever or two.

Ahem. The Sox won that game, so I find it really, really hard to call it meaningless.