Maxbialystock

I look at salaries vs. performance this way-- Sale, $17M, pitches for the Braves. Turner, $7M, plays elsewhere. Story, $22.5M, out for the season after diving for a ball. Yoshida, $18.6M, WAR (as a DH) to date, +0.2, now on IL with an undiagnosed hand injury and could be out awhile. Unlikely to be missed. Giolito, $18M, out for the season and maybe some of next season Whitlock, $3.5M, 4 good starts, ERA 1.96, 18.1 IP, WAR +0.9, due back this month, but almost certainly fragile. Devers, $29M, shoulder issues, defensive issues, WAR +0.9--so not earning his pay. Jansen, $16M, good closer, but the combined salaries of starters Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck, and now Criswell add up to $15M. So Jansen was/is clearly an overspend, and the rotation an unbelievable bargain. Pivetta, $7.5M, WAR +0.3, and overspend so far, but who knows? O'Neill, $6M, WAR +0.9, about right, but his hitting has cratered since the concussion Contrast the above with the astounding pitching, which is underpaid (except for Jansen, who is overpaid), and with these bargain basement performers so far-- Duran, WAR +2.2, min MLB salary $750K Abreu, WAR +1.6, ditto Wong, WAR +0.8, ditto McGuire, WAR + 0.5, $1.5M Rafaela, WAR +0.2, ditto, leads Sox in rbi's with 22 over 2d best Duran 16.

Despite my nonstop griping, I agree we should at least peek at the wild card standings. This is a lousy hitting team who won today on a prodigious error by the Nats centerfielder and a failure to try by the their rightfielder who could have grabbed Rafaela's ground rule double. But the pitching held up, yet again, and the defense was pretty decent. I'm on blackout, but can watch if I wait 2 hours. I just now saw Rafaela almost grab that freaking dinger by the Nats. He did get his glove on it and he did go over the wall. Very impressive. Plus, of course, he leads the team in rbi's. This team of basically no-names is in fact in the hunt for the postseason despite the execrable hitting and a defense that was the worst in MLB but probably isn't these days. With Pivetta and now Bello back, the pitching just might retain their best ERA in MLB. If you ever doubted the importance of pitching, this season should change your mind. The same just might apply to the Sox manager, what's-his-name. As for the Rays, I can't think of a better time to play them right freaking now.

Two much-needed, excellent wins which, however, do not--as everyone has already said--assuage our angst about the hitting. Those three runs depended on the dropped fly in CF and Rafaela's miracle double which actually was catchable. It was the Nats who had the 2 run dinger. Sox are now 2 games over .500 which, all things considered, is semi-miraculous and primarily due to the pitching. The fans, however, are not impressed and are finally voting with their absent fannies. So far--and it is definitely early enough for cold weather to be a factor--the Sox attendance is the lowest in at least 25 years. It does not help that the sightlines for the fans are among the worst in MLB. Fenway is antiquated. But my guess is that two biggest factors are the absence of star power (except for Devers, these guys are no-names) and, not quite as important, marginal won-loss record for the 3d season in a row.

I consider this a big win, both because it counters some of the negativism which I'm been expressing and because it puts the Sox back above .500. Given the Sox lousy defense and hitting, being 1 game above .500 is remarkable.

1. It's still early in the season, so those 17 runs make a big difference. 2. Few teams give up 6 runs in the 9th with a non-pitcher on the mound. 3. Dodgers lead MLB in runs and their most runs in one game is 12. Rangers are 2d and have scored 15 twice. Astros, on the other hand, are ranked 14th, right ahead of the Sox, and their biggest game so far is 10 runs. Cincy, ranked 16th in runs scored, has scored 11 runs in their best game. 4. So 17 is unusual, especially for a lousy hitting/scoring team like the Sox--and therefore has them ranked higher than they should be. And I say this in the context that the previous worst for the Sox was ranked 18th in runs scored. My claim is that this Sox team is the worst hitting Sox team in a quarter century--or longer.

I disagree. I think it's natural for real fans--fanatics--to react to every game and even to over-react. Yes, of course there is the long view which can be measured in decades or months or however one chooses to see the Sox. 162 games are divisible by 9, which means there are 18 games in each "inning" of a 9 inning season. At 38 games, the Sox have just started the 3d inning of this season. And just like any 9 inning game, we've already seen a lot of interesting things-- --Injuries galore, but especially to Story and Casas and 3 of the original (and magical) rotation of Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, and Houck; --Worst defense in MLB; --Best pitching, defined as the team ERA, in MLB. This is in fact unprecedented and seems likely to end this month; --Historically bad hitting, especially with runners in scoring position; --Nevertheless, a 19-19 record thanks to the rotation (and sometimes to the bullpen); --Also nevertheless, Sox attendance @ 31,229, the lowest in at least 25 years.

Sox are currently 10th in MLB in OBP. Not great, but not horrible. Team OPS is 11th. Their problem is RISP disease. Last night they were 1/9.

About the Sox hitting, I claim credit for identifying the depth of their malaise by pointing out that although they are ranked 15th (which is pretty bad for the Sox) in runs scored, it's actually worse than that because of those 17 runs scored against the Cubs, including 6 runs in the 9th inning off a position player who took the mound. Right now the Sox average 4.34 runs per game. So, if we subtract that average from those 17 runs, leaving 13 runs, we should then subtract 13 runs from the 165 runs scored by the Sox to date. The result, 152 runs scored, puts the Sox offense at 21st best in MLB, which is truer reflection of how bad the hitting is. Last year the Sox were ranked 11th in MLB in runs scored. In 2022, they were 9th. In 2021, they were 5th. Skip 2020, which was a nonseason. In 2019, the Sox were 4th in runs scored, and in 2018 1st, 2017 10th, 2016 1st, 2015 4th, 2014 18th, 2013 1st, 2012 8th, 2011 1st, 2010 2d, 2009 3d, 2008 3d, 2007 4th, 2006 9th, 2005 1st, 2004 1st, 2003 1st, 2002 2d. In short, the Sox hitting this season is historically bad.

As for Breslow and the 2024 Sox, my impression is simply that most of the problems were/are too deep and ingrained to fix in one offseason. Among those problems, and here I'm just guessing, are-- 1. Lack of intelligent coaching and assessment in the Sox minor leagues. 2. An owner who has backed off of paying top dollar for talent, probably as a result of the 2019 season, after which he plowed megabucks into paying Price and Sale even though Price pitched for the Dodgers, and Sale simply stayed on the IL. 3. The MLBPA, which, along with players' agents, has brilliantly ensured that almost all contracts are guaranteed, which means that owners and CBO's are almost always gambling on the continued health of their most expensive acquisitions. I hasten to add that sports commentators of all ilk seem to share the notion that the owners are all billionaires and should share that wealth with the players, regardless of the risks. 4. The ongoing dynamics of MLB rule changes, which are invariably intended to allow for more scoring, but nevertheless seem unable to combat the ongoing refinement of pitching techniques/effectiveness. 5. He replaced Chaim Bloom, who proved to be the wrong guy to execute whatever John Henry and his brain trust intended as a sea change for the Sox. Bloom came from the very good Rays system for identifying and developing MLB-level talent, but could not bring that system with him.

Speaking as one of the many morons, I can assure that Windows started out as fairly user hostile. Apple was far more user-friendly, so Gates had his guys switch to some of Apple's basic ideas. In any case, as a novice back in 1995 I spent two months trying to master word and excel and almost got to the point of adequacy. Not so, powerpoint with all its intricacies. What Gates was great at was the whole notion of making people pay for software, which then led to its virtual universality. Now even Apple products can accommodate microsoft.

Game over. 5-1, Nats. The Sox more and more seem absolutely terrified with RISP. You can bet Devers was cringing in the on deck circle at the prospect of once again failing miserably with the bases loaded. I hasten to add Barnes (not the former Sox reliever) has enough of a fastball to get it by Devers.

First two pitches to Duran were right down the middle and he took both of them. After that, he was the proverbial dead man walking. The Sox seem determined to stay in their non-hitting "groove."

I'm guessing that the Sox are in fact in their real hitting groove.

Rafael hits a GIDP ball, but the Sox already had 2 outs thanks to O'Neill's ignominious K on a called 3d strike well inside the zone. Sox are 1/5 w/ RISP and the Nats are 3/6.

Nats now 2/2 stealing on Wong. Or is it on Houck?

Blackout notwithstanding, I saw the replay. That single was hard hit, a one-hopper to the RF'er who was not deep, and he threw a rope on one hop. However, it was well up the the 3d base line and still beat O'Neill.

Sox score!!!! They need to stop the game and give Cooper the ball he hit for the double.

First four Sox batters have now faced Corbin twice and still have no hits. Wong has 2 hits.

Zero hits so far from the four Sox batters before Wong.

This could be kind of a telltale game. Houck is the Sox best starter and has already given up 3 runs in 3 innings. Corbin's ERA is 5.98, and he is having zero problems with the Sox lineup.

With 2 outs, O'Neill should have gotten a good jump on the single to RF. But, if it was hit hard enough, you can still get him. I can't see anything because of course I'm 400 miles south in NC and therefore in blackout mode. I'm sure Corbin is as bad as vegasbob says he is, but the Sox lineup right now is in the bottom 1/3 of MLB teams.

Wrong! Yes, of course Mookie is way better than Devers, but it's a fact that Mookie by himself could not save this Sox team because the CBO and/or owner decided to stop spending big bucks for pitching. The overall Sox team payroll has dwindled steadily over the past 5 years or so. In fact, I'll happily go out on a limb and say that keeping Mookie, Devers, and Bogey would not have made the Sox contenders because of the lack of pitching. This year the Sox pitching has been amazingly good--granted--but few of us believe it will last.

An excellent laydown. Thanks. However, right now I'm pessimistic about the 2024 Sox because I believe the pitching and the pitching alone has kept them above .500. The hitting stinks and so does the defense. The Sox pitching miraculously has the lowest ERA in MLB, and I don't see that lasting much longer.

I wish I could agree with you, but those two Atlanta games showed me just how sorry the Sox hitting is. In 37 games they've scored 164 runs, ranked 14th in MLB. That's pretty weak, but it's actually worse because the 17 runs scored against the Cubs--which includes 6 runs scored off an infielder pitching in the 9th--skews the Sox scoring. We should subtract 12 of those 17 runs, declare the total runs scored to be 152 runs, and recognize that the Sox offense is actually the 21st best in MLB.

I'm amazed even one player went an entire season in which he had more triples than K's. It is in fact a rare accomplishment.