Maxbialystock

I actually live for the current season, whatever it is, and this one fascinates me despite the fielding and hitting issues. I'm astounded--still--with the pitching, especially the rotation. And tonight Houck went 7 scoreless innings--with nasty stuff--when the Sox needed it. Meanwhile the lineup--the defense and the hitting--was pretty doggone good. At the Trop, no less. A sweep here is feasible and would be so sweet.

Don't kid yourself--or us. The defense has been awful. But your point must be that it doesn't have to stay that way. There are, as you imply, examples of pretty good defense in previous games. Same goes for the hitting, which has been abysmal in bringing in runs. And tonight Houck was once again fantastic and by that I mean nasty stuff. To my thinking a huge win because it follows the 11-3 win @ St Louis--and especially because it's at the Trop.

Wrong! Go look at the MLB standings which also show the run differentials, and you will see the correlation between W-L records and run differential is pretty close. The Sox are the exception, which reconfirms how untimely Sox hitting can be. They might lose several close games, then win, as they did last night, 11-3--or, better still, 17-0 against the Cubs--and then lapse back to scoring few runs. This is also where all those solo dingers come into play.

Sox team ERA is 2d best in MLB, and they Rays' is 20th. Sox runs scored are 13th and the Rays 17th. Sox run differential is +28 and the Rays is -29. But Sox are 23-24 and the Rays 25-23.

Duran CF OPS .784 Abreu RF .822 O'Neill LF .932 Devers 3B .939 Wong DH .916 Smith 1B .476 Hamilton SS .757 McGuire C .663 Rafaela SS .569 Six lefty bats for the good guys. Grissom gets a day off with Hamilton @ 2b. Since .663 is a good OPS for a catcher, only two in the Sox lineup--Rafaela and Smith--can be considered weak hitters. Duran, Abreu, Wong, Hamilton, and Rafaela are all in their 1st or 2d full seasons.

Wild applause for last night's win. The Sox were just along for the ride.

I don't like the flatness or the heat, but there are lots of people who love Florida. Why anyone would want to live in Tampa is beyond me, but I do give them credit for staying away from the Trop. The Rays, on the other hand, are absolutely fascinating in how they stay competitive with such low salaries.

Wow. Just wow. I think you are on to something. I especially like the phrase, "exploding MLB payrolls" because I think they are ridiculous. It's not just the money they get, but the fact that it's guaranteed every single year for 10 years or more. And while those salaries are going up and up and up, revenues are going down and down and down.

Is it possible that the Sox, who reportedly are now worth more than $5B, are in fact cash poor? Attendance is down--in fact, way down from 2019, the last season before covid. I'll bet TV and radio revenues are down too. Same goes for online viewership via mlb.com. I read somewhere their profit margin is $62M, which looks awfully small to me given the total cost of everything, including players, especially those (Story, Yoshida, Giolito, Sale, etc) who don't actually play for the Sox.

I agree JH is ultimately responsible. But, first and foremost, we must acknowledge he is easily the best Sox owner ever because MLB in the John Henry era has been far more competitive than back in the Sox first quarter century (1901-26). The Yankees have outspent the Sox, 2002-2024, but have 1 WS to the Sox 4. I do agree John Henry cut payroll steadily after the 2019 season and with Chaim Bloom as his CBO. This especially applied to pitching. In his defense, however, he was paying a bundle for David Price after he went to the Dodgers and for Chris Sale, who spent big parts of 4 seasons (2020-2023) on the IL. I think Price and Sale convinced JH big contracts for starters were just stupid. This year so far he has 5 starters--Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, and Criswell--who are costing him $12M in salary and doing a pretty good job. I can't say definitively whether JH is right or wrong on the current track, but do think he has earned the right to be wrong, at least for awhile. Right now I think the only big money player who is earning his pay is Rafael Devers. Story, Giolito, Yoshida, Sale, and Jansen are overpaid.

The rotation this year is a freaking triumph, nothing less--without Montgomery, Giolito, Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, whoever. It's far and away the best part of the 2024 Sox. And it might not last, I agree. For example, Houck and Crawford lead in IP with 58 each, which ranks them 14th in MLB for most IP. But then a big drop down to Bello with 36, Criswell 29, and Pivetta 26. Whitlock with 18 IP may be headed for TJ surgery. Bello got hit hard by the Cardinals in his last start--7 hits, 3 dingers, and 5 ER in 4.2 innings.

Of the top ten payrolls in MLB, five (Yankees, Phillies, Braves, Dodgers, and Cubs) have winning records and five (Mets, Astros, Rangers, Blue Jays, and Giants) do not. Of the bottom ten payrolls, three are doing well: 22d Brewers, 27-19; 25th Orioles, 29-15; and 26th Guardians, 30-17. And of the middle ten payrolls (11th through 20th), just three have winning records: Seattle, 25-22; Minnesota, 24-22; and Kansas City, 29-19. And this. The Yankees are the presumptive rivals of the Sox and have won an insane 27 World Series, by far the most in MLB. They also spend, on average, more than any other MLB team on payroll because they can afford to. Since John Henry became the Sox owner in 2002, the Sox have won 4 WS and the Yankees 1.

Sox payroll this year is 11th of 30 teams--$182M. Of that, $24M goes to Sale and Turner, who are both playing elsewhere, and $62M goes to Story, Yoshida, Giolito, and Whitlock, all of whom are on the IL. Right now it looks like Yoshida is the only one who might return, and he is certifiably a DH who can't hit. I hasten to add that none of Story, Yoshida, Giolito, and Whitlock has played/pitched to a level justifying their salaries. Story is a vastly overpaid defensive SS/2b who has yet to deliver at the plate in 3 seasons with the Sox. He makes the vastly overpaid Chris Sale (or David Price) look like the bargain of the century. Of the remaining $96M, a total of $12M pays the rotation of Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, and Criswell. And that rotation is the one real strength of this Sox team. Meanwhile, Kelsey Jansen is paid $16M to close and has pitched a total of 16 innings to date while he basically uses just one pitch, a cutter. In other words, whatever brain trust John Henry employs is demonstrably brain dead about how to build a competitive MLB team. Chaim Bloom gets most of the blame, but not all of it. He's gone, and maybe the new guy is an improvement, but it's arguably too soon for JH to believe he can be trusted to spend big.

Typically short game thread for a win, especially an 11-3 win. We crave losses, especially ones with weak hitting and lousy fielding--something we can get out teeth into. I personally harbor deep resentment toward Devers with those 5 dingers in 5 games--and cling to the solo shots. To justify that $313M/year he's making, he needs to homer every game, with at least half of them with the bases loaded. Plus errorless defense with great range. Plus coaching the likes of Grissom and Rafaela to improve their hitting. Plus, now that Kelsey Jansen's cutter looks very hittable, close some games.

Too early to call this season toast, especially with a rotation that has produced so many good starts.

Exactly my thinking. The rotation still looks decent/good, with or without Whitlock. The bullpen right now makes me nervous, but has been good. However, if Jansen continues to rely on just one pitch, his 90-93 mph cutter, he is going to get hit like he was last time out. The key is whether the hitting will turn around. So no time like the present to see how they do at the Trop, the worst ballpark in MLB history.

Grissom stinks, but you are dead right. He gets a long look.

Excellent win and a surprising one given the Sox 11 runs. Pivetta looked pretty doggone good, and it's just possible the rotation is still pretty good whether or not Whitlock ever returns. MLB is basically all about hitting and pitching, and so far, even with the Sox no longer leading MLB in team ERA, the Sox pitching is pretty good. Well, the rotation is. I'm beginning to wonder about the bullpen. So now back to the east coast and 3 vs. the Rays, who took 3 of 4 @ Fenway-but all three losses were competitive (as was the Sox one win). I plan to watch all 3 games in hopes that just maybe the hitting can turn around. Given these seven current OPS's, that should be possible: Duran .784; Refsnyder .954; O'Neill .932; Devers .939; Wong .919; Abreu .822; Gonzalez .791. Note I say "possible," not probable.

2 straight games the bullpen absolutely reeks. And don't forget that other recent game when Kelsey Jansen stunk it up to give away a tie game in the 9th. Bernardino's throw to 2d base (that went into CF) was not only lousy, it was absolutely pointless.

In a 1-0 game, that dinger by Rafael Devers is huge. Typical that he golfed it out of there.

If the rotation starts giving up more runs, one good reason might be that the lineup has, for most of the season, sabotaged the pitching with their lousy defense and failure to score runs. The lineup stinks, and the lead stinker is Devers.

To me Devers latest at bat defines this lineup this season. Two men on (1st and 3d), he's facing a righty pitcher, and the 7th pitch he sees is a fast ball in the geometric freaking center of the strike zone, and he swings and misses. I don't want to be told about his 3 dingers when all of them were with no one on base. Next up for Devers is an error to bring in one or more unearned runs. This is his 8th freaking MLB season with the Sox, and it's hard to see a real improvement.

Plenty to gripe about because this is the third straight season in which the postseason seems out of reach. Everyone wants to blame JH for not spending enough, but I'm inclined to blame management for getting the wrong players. As I've already said, the Sox are not alone in failing to get the right players.

Fair enough. I've side with management on Whitlock for two reasons. First and foremost, they know way more about him and about the Sox needs they any of us do. Second, I think Whitlock has way too big a repertoire for a reliever. I think the best ones rely on no more than 3 pitches, but they must be 3 good pitches. Whitlock normally goes with 5 pitches--fastball, changeup, curve, slider, and cutter. I cannot make an informed judgment about Whitlock's durability, which I realize is a big issue. So of course I fall back on the expertise of the Sox management.

Perhaps. On the other hand, there is plenty of evidence out there that spending big bucks on players doesn't guarantee success. Mets are 20-24 with the biggest payroll of $308M. Astros are 20-25 with 3d biggest ($250M). Rangers are 23-23 with 5th biggest, $233M. And, speaking of the Rays, their payroll is 27th, $100M, and they are 24-22. Cleveland's payroll is 26th, $100M, and they are 28-17. Milwaukee's is 22d, $107M, and they are 26-18. So, if we dragged John Henry into a court of law and charged him with uncaring malfeasance, his defense counsel might point to the Sox 11th biggest payroll, $182M, which includes paying $17M (or some of it) to Chris Sale, who is pitching (and pitching well) for the Atlanta Braves, ditto Turner, $7M, who is elsewhere, ditto Giolito, $18M, who is out for the whole season, ditto Story, $22.5M, also out for the season. Also Kelsey Jansen, who's getting $16M and so far has pitched 15.2 innings, which translates (for a whole season) to something like $250K per inning. Jansen currently relies basically on one pitch, a cutter, and got hit hard his last time out.