Maxbialystock

My reaction too until I saw Gil serve up similar pitches to get Sox hitters out. I do not think the Sox are good at hitting fastballs over 95 mph. And that's what Bello was throwing at the Yankees, who sent them back faster than they came in. Both Gil and Bello were throwing heat at about 97 mph. Note: fastball in the the geometric center of the strike zone--swing and a miss by Devers for the K.

Ahem. Last year the best winning percentage in MLB was 64% by the Braves, who won 104 games, which is pretty good. However, the two teams in the World Series last year had winning percentages of 56% (90 wins, Rangers) and 52% (84 wins, Diamondbacks). And the reason last year's postseason worked out that way wasn't because something what wrong, but because 64%, 56%, and 52% ain't all that far apart. that's a spread of just 12 freaking percent, which is miniscule in terms of separating good teams from not so good teams. Relatedly the Sox 50%, where they've been for big chunks of this season, also ain't that bad even though you want to categorize them as mediocre. Then there's the little matter of the Sox most recent 7 games, in which they could only manage a 2-2 split vs. the White Sox, the worst team in MLB with a 26% winning percentage, followed by taking 2 of 3 vs the Phillies, whose winning percentage of 68% is the highest in the NL and virtually tied with the Yankees 69% for the best in MLB. Those two series are to me the quintessence of MLB, which is that rare sport in which a competitor can hit the piss out of the ball and make an out or even a double play. Or he can swing and miss for strike 3, but get to 1b because it was wild pitch. Or hit a dribbler for a hit. Plus don't forget the errors. Given the above, to me it's impossible to be sure which way MLB is trending. We know the money is terrific, especially with the bonuses going to players high in the draft who are years away from MLB. We also know, as moonslav says, that new talent is coming from more and more countries around the world. OK, not Europe, granted. They prefer fussball, as in fact the entire world does, except, of course, us star-bangled banner types.

It would be nice if he did "spend big again." But at the same time there is absolutely no reassurance for any owner that spending big does the trick. I say this because players' salaries are almost always guaranteed, which means an injury or whatever is all on the owner. So I doubt there's is a single team anywhere in MLB who have spent big on players without ending up holding the bag. Like the Yankees. They have a huge fan base, excellent attendance, TV ratings, whatever, so they can definitely afford to spend big for players and usually do exactly that. It's why they've won 27 WS's. As recently as 1998, 1999, and 2000 they won 3 straight WS. But since the 2000 season, the Yankees have won 1 WS, in 2009. In that same time frame the Sox have won 4 WS and the Giants 3, I think. The Angels have won 1 in that time frame, and so have the freaking Marlins! The Cubs finally ended their drought. It gets better--or worse, depending on your perspective. Out in LA the Dodgers also have a gigantic fan base and lots and lots of money. So, like the Yankees, they'll go out and get, say, a Mookie Betts--just like that! Great arms for a king's ransom? No problem. But guess what? Since 2000, the only WS the Dodgers won was the in phoniest season in MLB history, 2020, when players and fans were all getting covid. So to me it's a meaningless WS title. Oh, the Phillies have won one WS, but it was in 2008, long before DD took over.

Agree completely. If I understand them correctly, the Rays system is to sign them long term early, before they become expensive, or to let them go when they become free agents--or trade them a year or two early. They signed Wander Franco early and long, but unfortunately it seems he's pond scum.

No excuse. Splitting a series is so simple. Just win one, lose one, and tie one.

Exactly. Much as I deplore the worst defense in MLB, hitting does come first.

Ahem. Giolito and Story are both unmitigated disasters in terms value for salary. Plus Giolito and Whitlock both went under the knife for a quicker version of TJ surgery, so we have no idea what they will bring to the team next year. If I'm JH, I'm asking Breslow why the Sox should spend another $80M or so if they are so absolutely rotten at acquiring good players from other teams.

And let's please, please not forget that right now the Sox are paying $17M to Sale, who is pitching well for the Braves, and also paying $38M for one season--he's out for this season--of Giolito. That's right, folks. The Sox are paying $55M for one season of Giolito and whatever they can get from Grissom, who so far has looked awful. JH fired DD because DD said the highest payroll in MLB wasn't nearly enough. He fired CB because he was probably in over his head as a CBO. And right now Craig Breslow is the primary owner of the Sale/Giolito/Grissom deal. He is responsible for none of the guys--Duran, Abreu, Casas, Hamilton, Rafaela, Wong--who have come up from Worcester and actually helped the big club. Nor has Breslow brought in the guys currently in Portland and Worcester who are expected to help the big club.

Fantastic comparison!!! Brilliant!!! That one post/page demonstrates why/how John Henry came to see big bucks for pitchers as fool's gold. The 2019 Sox payroll was the highest in MLB and actually needed to go up by at least another $50M if JH wanted to keep Mookie (for whom the Dodgers were happy to get in a bidding war) and to replace Price and Sale, who were fading fast. The combined salaries of the current Sox rotation are less than Jansen's salary of $16M.

Right now Hamilton has played exactly the same number of games, 43, as Story played last year. But Hamilton's WAR is +1.4 and his OPS .820. Story's WAR was +0.8 and his OPS .566. Let me be honest and admit I have been as anti-Hamilton as anyone can be. But right now the deal for Story looks as stupid as the one the Yankees made to rip off Jacoby Ellsbury. And, if you throw in--along with Hamilton--the likes of Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Wong, and Casas, it sure looks to me as though the best team for the Sox to make "deals" with is Worcester. And that's not counting the guys still at Portland. John Henry's furor over spending big bucks for players has some legitimacy: Story $22.5M x 6 seasons; Giolito $36M for 2 seasons; Jansen $32M for 2 seasons; Sale $17M for 1 season (with the freaking Braves!) ; Turner $7M for 1 season (also with another team!); Yoshida $18.6M for 5 seasons. And let's not forget the Sox paid Sale 87.5M for 2021-23 when his cumulative WAR was 2.6. They also paid David Price most of $180M for 2016-22, during which his cumulative WAR was 11.2.

That's baseball. The Red Sox just split 4 games with the White Sox, whose winning percentage, .246, is the worst in MLB, but right now they have a fair chance to win a 3 game series vs the Phillies, who have the best winning percentage, .687, in the NL. Worcester North applies primarily to the lineup, not the pitching staff. And it deserves that name because of the list of players on the IL. The Sox have played 68 games, but $22.5M/year SS Story has played 8 games, $18M starter Giolito 0 games, $3.5M starter Whitlock 4 games, and $18.6M DH Yoshida 25 games. Then there are promising youngsters like Casas, who injured himself swinging the bat--go figure that one out--and has played just 22 games and now won't play until July. Also Abreu, a standout in RF whose WAR, 1.9, is the same as Devers, who is missing 2 weeks because he tripped going down the dugout stairs. You can't make this stuff up. Despite all of the above--and don't forget to note the Sox lead MLB in errors--the pitching staff has been semi-incredible and the Sox team ERA is 5th best in MLB--without Giolito or Whitlock and with Criswell filling in for Whitlock. And that's with opening day starter Bello sporting an ERA of 4.78 (the team ERA is 3.42). Back to Worcester North. Of the seven best WAR's in the Sox lineup, five--Duran 3.4, Abreu 1.9, Wong, 1.6, Hamilton 1.4, and Rafaela, 0.8--played at Worcester as recently as 2022 or even 2023. I could add Casas as the 6th, but right now there's some doubt about when he will return and whether he will be able to swing the bat well enough to hit the way he has been. And let's not forget the talent currently in both Portland and Worcester. If good Casas returns in July and we throw in Devers, O'Neill, and Refsnyder--all of whom are hitting well--that's 9 pretty good players for the lineup. Also this insane footnote. Last year in 43 games Story's WAR was 0.8 and his OPS was .566. This year Hamilton's WAR is 1.4 in 43 games and his OPS is .820. And we wonder why John Henry has soured on paying big bucks--long term big bucks--for anyone? And don't get me on the topic of Sale vs Giolito, both of whose salaries, $17M and $39M, the Sox are paying even though Sale is pitching for the Braves.

It is something, isn't it? Tomorrow night for the series, Houck vs. Nola.

I would agree but for one tiny fact--he missed 2 months from simply swinging a bat, which he just might want to do again. The doctors will or already have declared him to be well, but I'd like to see from proof.

Whoa, Nellie. The first part of the drama was coming from behind by 4 to ahead by four with a rotten lineup and against an excellent pitching staff. Given that, giving up a run in the 7th is hardly cataclysmic.

Used to be an NBA fan, but now just the NCAA--and maybe not that for long.

You're right, of course you are. I've mentioned the offense needing improvement, but pretty much decided "not in my lifetime." So here we are in the 5th freaking inning, and I think I'll still here--to everyone's consternation. And the Sox just stomped all over the Phillies pitching with 6 runs, to take the lead, 6-4, in what seemed a hopeless game against a vastly superior team. I threw rocks, tomatoes, you name it at Devers last night, and tonight he has hit up a storm. And did Cora pinch hit yet afreakingain? He did, Valdez for Westbrook--and 2 rbi's. Pivetta had a tough night, but I still like him. Booser and Kelly have relieved nicely in the 5th and 6th. Back to the hitting. Here are the OPS's Cora sent up against the excellent Phillies pitching-- Duran .789 Refsnyder .874 O'Neill .853 Devers .930 Wong .844 Westbrook .620/Valdez .598 Dalbec .445 Hamilton .827 Rafaela .604. So, while I agree the 6th, 7th, and 9th OPS's ain't so great, the other six look pretty good to me. Maybe that's why they are blasting the Phillies right now. Of course there is an alternate explanation. SPLENDIDSPLINTER started the game thread.

Ever the optimist. However, last night Crawford pitched well against the Phillies but was sabotaged by the defense--yet again--and specifically by firstbaseman Smith who had the gall to "explain" he had to be sure his glove arm wasn't in danger of being run into. Pivetta, it should be noted, pitched well his last time out. When he is on, he is pretty doggone good. The mystery for tonight is what will this dreadful Sox lineup do. We saw last night they can sabotage a pitcher both ways--2 unearned runs plus only 1 run (earned, of course) for the home team. Speaking of which, the crowd last night was up--35K--so there were maybe 5K or 6K Philly fans.

Ahem. I think you have to be wrong about Schwarber, and I say that because to me the choice turned out to be Schwarber or Yoshida. Schwarber has made a difference for the Phillies, as he would have done with the Sox--even with all the K's and the weak defensive skills. Right now the Phillies are 4th in MLB in runs scored with 336, just 10 runs behind the leaders, the Dodgers, with 346. And Schwarber is 3d on the Phillies in total bases, 2d in dingers, and 3d in rbi's. He has the same dingers, 13, as Devers, more rbi's, 38 vs 32, and fewer total bases, 101 vs. 112.

One more time, and I know by now I sound like a broken record. If Mookie was the only guy the Sox needed to be successful, I would agree. But in fact the 2019 Sox, who had all the same talented pitchers and lineup they had in the incredible 2018 season, collapsed because of the pitching and didn't even make it to the postseason. The 2019 Sox payroll was the highest in MLB. So just to keep their talent at the same level, they would have had to get in a bidding war with the Dodgers for Mookie, continue to pay outlandish salaries to two starters, Price and Sale, who couldn't actually freaking start, and to pay additional outlandish salaries to new starters to replace Price and Sale. Plus down the road they would have to at least explore the possibility of paying Devers enough to retain him. If my take on 2019--and retaining Mookie--is correct, there was no limit to the amount of money DD would have needed to keep the Sox competitive. That said, I agree DD is an excellent CBO, which he has demonstrated with several teams, including the current Phillies.

Maybe we should agree to disagree. The 2019 Sox had the highest payroll in MLB, but Betts was becoming a free agent, and Price and Sale, both being paid king ransoms, were worthless. To outspend the Dodgers to keep Mookie, to spend big to replace Price and Sale, and to spend more to cover Bogey's pay raise (which San Diego gave him), to keep Eovaldi, to Keep ERod, and to keep Devers going to cost what, $100M more than the biggest payroll in MLB?

It sure is. In fact, I've said--to moonslav's chagrin--that hitting is the primary skill for a lineup player. The two key defensive positions are usually SS and CF, but the Sox have consistently tried to put good hitters in both positions. As soon as they get a good fielding SS, they fire his ass--unless his OPS is over .800. Thus Bogey and the guy who was supposed to replace him, Story. And what's kind of interesting about the 2024 Sox is that the lineup stinks in the field and at the plate.

Miller Beer?

Just so we're clear. The Sox pitching tonight was definitely good enough. The problem is that this is the worst Sox lineup--at bat and in the field--in recent memory. By themselves, they gave up 2 runs and scored 1.

I believe that point started with me when I called Cora's moves the "dud liberation movement." If it ain't Miller Time, it's DFA Time.

I'm one of the faithful who likes Dalbec, but that doesn't keep my from recognizing that he flat cannot hit MLB pitching.