Maxbialystock
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Everything posted by Maxbialystock
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A Realistic View of 2024: Part II
Maxbialystock replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
And let's please, please not forget that right now the Sox are paying $17M to Sale, who is pitching well for the Braves, and also paying $38M for one season--he's out for this season--of Giolito. That's right, folks. The Sox are paying $55M for one season of Giolito and whatever they can get from Grissom, who so far has looked awful. JH fired DD because DD said the highest payroll in MLB wasn't nearly enough. He fired CB because he was probably in over his head as a CBO. And right now Craig Breslow is the primary owner of the Sale/Giolito/Grissom deal. He is responsible for none of the guys--Duran, Abreu, Casas, Hamilton, Rafaela, Wong--who have come up from Worcester and actually helped the big club. Nor has Breslow brought in the guys currently in Portland and Worcester who are expected to help the big club. -
A Realistic View of 2024: Part II
Maxbialystock replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Fantastic comparison!!! Brilliant!!! That one post/page demonstrates why/how John Henry came to see big bucks for pitchers as fool's gold. The 2019 Sox payroll was the highest in MLB and actually needed to go up by at least another $50M if JH wanted to keep Mookie (for whom the Dodgers were happy to get in a bidding war) and to replace Price and Sale, who were fading fast. The combined salaries of the current Sox rotation are less than Jansen's salary of $16M. -
Right now Hamilton has played exactly the same number of games, 43, as Story played last year. But Hamilton's WAR is +1.4 and his OPS .820. Story's WAR was +0.8 and his OPS .566. Let me be honest and admit I have been as anti-Hamilton as anyone can be. But right now the deal for Story looks as stupid as the one the Yankees made to rip off Jacoby Ellsbury. And, if you throw in--along with Hamilton--the likes of Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Wong, and Casas, it sure looks to me as though the best team for the Sox to make "deals" with is Worcester. And that's not counting the guys still at Portland. John Henry's furor over spending big bucks for players has some legitimacy: Story $22.5M x 6 seasons; Giolito $36M for 2 seasons; Jansen $32M for 2 seasons; Sale $17M for 1 season (with the freaking Braves!) ; Turner $7M for 1 season (also with another team!); Yoshida $18.6M for 5 seasons. And let's not forget the Sox paid Sale 87.5M for 2021-23 when his cumulative WAR was 2.6. They also paid David Price most of $180M for 2016-22, during which his cumulative WAR was 11.2.
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6/12 Phils @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
That's baseball. The Red Sox just split 4 games with the White Sox, whose winning percentage, .246, is the worst in MLB, but right now they have a fair chance to win a 3 game series vs the Phillies, who have the best winning percentage, .687, in the NL. Worcester North applies primarily to the lineup, not the pitching staff. And it deserves that name because of the list of players on the IL. The Sox have played 68 games, but $22.5M/year SS Story has played 8 games, $18M starter Giolito 0 games, $3.5M starter Whitlock 4 games, and $18.6M DH Yoshida 25 games. Then there are promising youngsters like Casas, who injured himself swinging the bat--go figure that one out--and has played just 22 games and now won't play until July. Also Abreu, a standout in RF whose WAR, 1.9, is the same as Devers, who is missing 2 weeks because he tripped going down the dugout stairs. You can't make this stuff up. Despite all of the above--and don't forget to note the Sox lead MLB in errors--the pitching staff has been semi-incredible and the Sox team ERA is 5th best in MLB--without Giolito or Whitlock and with Criswell filling in for Whitlock. And that's with opening day starter Bello sporting an ERA of 4.78 (the team ERA is 3.42). Back to Worcester North. Of the seven best WAR's in the Sox lineup, five--Duran 3.4, Abreu 1.9, Wong, 1.6, Hamilton 1.4, and Rafaela, 0.8--played at Worcester as recently as 2022 or even 2023. I could add Casas as the 6th, but right now there's some doubt about when he will return and whether he will be able to swing the bat well enough to hit the way he has been. And let's not forget the talent currently in both Portland and Worcester. If good Casas returns in July and we throw in Devers, O'Neill, and Refsnyder--all of whom are hitting well--that's 9 pretty good players for the lineup. Also this insane footnote. Last year in 43 games Story's WAR was 0.8 and his OPS was .566. This year Hamilton's WAR is 1.4 in 43 games and his OPS is .820. And we wonder why John Henry has soured on paying big bucks--long term big bucks--for anyone? And don't get me on the topic of Sale vs Giolito, both of whose salaries, $17M and $39M, the Sox are paying even though Sale is pitching for the Braves. -
6/12 Phils @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
It is something, isn't it? Tomorrow night for the series, Houck vs. Nola. -
6/12 Phils @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
I would agree but for one tiny fact--he missed 2 months from simply swinging a bat, which he just might want to do again. The doctors will or already have declared him to be well, but I'd like to see from proof. -
6/12 Phils @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Whoa, Nellie. The first part of the drama was coming from behind by 4 to ahead by four with a rotten lineup and against an excellent pitching staff. Given that, giving up a run in the 7th is hardly cataclysmic. -
6/12 Phils @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Used to be an NBA fan, but now just the NCAA--and maybe not that for long. -
6/12 Phils @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
You're right, of course you are. I've mentioned the offense needing improvement, but pretty much decided "not in my lifetime." So here we are in the 5th freaking inning, and I think I'll still here--to everyone's consternation. And the Sox just stomped all over the Phillies pitching with 6 runs, to take the lead, 6-4, in what seemed a hopeless game against a vastly superior team. I threw rocks, tomatoes, you name it at Devers last night, and tonight he has hit up a storm. And did Cora pinch hit yet afreakingain? He did, Valdez for Westbrook--and 2 rbi's. Pivetta had a tough night, but I still like him. Booser and Kelly have relieved nicely in the 5th and 6th. Back to the hitting. Here are the OPS's Cora sent up against the excellent Phillies pitching-- Duran .789 Refsnyder .874 O'Neill .853 Devers .930 Wong .844 Westbrook .620/Valdez .598 Dalbec .445 Hamilton .827 Rafaela .604. So, while I agree the 6th, 7th, and 9th OPS's ain't so great, the other six look pretty good to me. Maybe that's why they are blasting the Phillies right now. Of course there is an alternate explanation. SPLENDIDSPLINTER started the game thread. -
6/12 Phils @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Ever the optimist. However, last night Crawford pitched well against the Phillies but was sabotaged by the defense--yet again--and specifically by firstbaseman Smith who had the gall to "explain" he had to be sure his glove arm wasn't in danger of being run into. Pivetta, it should be noted, pitched well his last time out. When he is on, he is pretty doggone good. The mystery for tonight is what will this dreadful Sox lineup do. We saw last night they can sabotage a pitcher both ways--2 unearned runs plus only 1 run (earned, of course) for the home team. Speaking of which, the crowd last night was up--35K--so there were maybe 5K or 6K Philly fans. -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Ahem. I think you have to be wrong about Schwarber, and I say that because to me the choice turned out to be Schwarber or Yoshida. Schwarber has made a difference for the Phillies, as he would have done with the Sox--even with all the K's and the weak defensive skills. Right now the Phillies are 4th in MLB in runs scored with 336, just 10 runs behind the leaders, the Dodgers, with 346. And Schwarber is 3d on the Phillies in total bases, 2d in dingers, and 3d in rbi's. He has the same dingers, 13, as Devers, more rbi's, 38 vs 32, and fewer total bases, 101 vs. 112. -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
One more time, and I know by now I sound like a broken record. If Mookie was the only guy the Sox needed to be successful, I would agree. But in fact the 2019 Sox, who had all the same talented pitchers and lineup they had in the incredible 2018 season, collapsed because of the pitching and didn't even make it to the postseason. The 2019 Sox payroll was the highest in MLB. So just to keep their talent at the same level, they would have had to get in a bidding war with the Dodgers for Mookie, continue to pay outlandish salaries to two starters, Price and Sale, who couldn't actually freaking start, and to pay additional outlandish salaries to new starters to replace Price and Sale. Plus down the road they would have to at least explore the possibility of paying Devers enough to retain him. If my take on 2019--and retaining Mookie--is correct, there was no limit to the amount of money DD would have needed to keep the Sox competitive. That said, I agree DD is an excellent CBO, which he has demonstrated with several teams, including the current Phillies. -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Maybe we should agree to disagree. The 2019 Sox had the highest payroll in MLB, but Betts was becoming a free agent, and Price and Sale, both being paid king ransoms, were worthless. To outspend the Dodgers to keep Mookie, to spend big to replace Price and Sale, and to spend more to cover Bogey's pay raise (which San Diego gave him), to keep Eovaldi, to Keep ERod, and to keep Devers going to cost what, $100M more than the biggest payroll in MLB? -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
It sure is. In fact, I've said--to moonslav's chagrin--that hitting is the primary skill for a lineup player. The two key defensive positions are usually SS and CF, but the Sox have consistently tried to put good hitters in both positions. As soon as they get a good fielding SS, they fire his ass--unless his OPS is over .800. Thus Bogey and the guy who was supposed to replace him, Story. And what's kind of interesting about the 2024 Sox is that the lineup stinks in the field and at the plate. -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Miller Beer? -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Just so we're clear. The Sox pitching tonight was definitely good enough. The problem is that this is the worst Sox lineup--at bat and in the field--in recent memory. By themselves, they gave up 2 runs and scored 1. -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
I believe that point started with me when I called Cora's moves the "dud liberation movement." If it ain't Miller Time, it's DFA Time. -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
I'm one of the faithful who likes Dalbec, but that doesn't keep my from recognizing that he flat cannot hit MLB pitching. -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Since Harper just singled, this story. In 2018 the Nats had Harper and averaged 31,620 attendance. Same year, Phillies 27,310. The next year, 2019, Harper's playing in Philly, and their attendance leaps to 33,671 and Washington's nosedives to 27,898. One guy, and you will never convince it wasn't Bryce who filled those seats. With DD as CBO, the Phillies have also been playing winning baseball, and this year so far their attendance is 40,017, which is only the 2d best in MLB. -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
His last time up, his last 2 strikes were against curves well below the strike zone. I believe he swings at almost any curve because he is not sure he can hit fast balls. This just might be the worst Sox lineup I can remember because they are wimps at the plate, especially with men on base, and they are the worst team in MLB in the field. The Phillies took the 3-1 lead on an error on a throw to 1b, which is supposed to be the easiest play in baseball. Just stick that huge mitt somewhere in the path of the ball. If it's in the ground, the error is always on the thrower. -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
I'm so bad at predicting I have to bite my hand when I see a post like yours. I have no idea how many innings Houck will pitch. But I can say this. I've never seen him pitcher better or with more confidence. And, frankly, that's more than enough for me. Of course I've love to see him pitch 200 or so innings, but he has already had a great season. -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Celebration time for Devers! He made another out--of course he did--but this time the leftfielder had to run to catch it. What's that hand signal they make when they get a hit? He could have done half of one. -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Wheeler has pitched well tonight, and Schwarber has those 2 dingers. But guess what? We've in the 7th and, without that 2 run error, the game would be 2-1, Phillies. And the Phillies are a much better team. moonslav has been griping about the Sox defense for what seems like centuries, but this season has exposed just how devastating bad defense can be. Don't forget all the weak defensive plays that aren't errors but should have been made. -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
I'm not an optimist, at least not this year with that defense. The dinger was off the first pitch of the game, a fast ball right down the middle--and Schwarber was ready for it. The error was about standard for these Sox. To be honest, Wheeler has looked pretty good tonight, once he got past those two leadoff hits and the sac fly by Refsnyder. To win against the Phillies with their excellent record, you need to play tough, and I don't see much toughness in these Sox. -
6/11 Phillies @ SOX 7:10PM ET
Maxbialystock replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
You implied, so I have to respond. Cora managed the Sox to their best season in their history. Granted, he definitely had the lineup and the pitching although Kimbrel did not impress in the postseason. Then DD left, as did Mookie and Price. Sale went on the IL. But still the Sox made it to the postseason in 2021--without a closer! Not only that, but they made it to the ALCS, which the 2016 and 2017 teams could not do. Oh, and DD's 4th Sox team 2019, didn't even make it to the postseason despite the highest payroll in MLB. Pitching collapsed, of course they did. And this year the Sox have no business being at .500 with that absolutely horrendous defense, inconsistent offense (especially with men on base), and now struggles with the pitching. When they went to Chicago to play the White Sox, the home team was on a 13 game losing streak and still split the series, 2-2, because of the Red Sox players, not their manager. And tonight against a good team, the 2d and 3d runs scored by the Phillies are both unearned because Smith can't catch a throw to 1b with that gigantic glove.

