Maxbialystock

I'm astounded. Someone else who just might agree Cora was right about Devers and Breslow was not.

I'm sure you're right. But right now we don't know what Yoshida's status is. Plus, frankly, I'd rather have Devers as the DH--in the tradition of Ortiz and JDM. I'm convinced that DD made two great moves after the 2017 season to enable the 2018 season. First, he dumped both Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. And second he brought in a terrific DH, JDM, who I am convinced made the whole lineup better. Maybe the two best hitters in the history of MLB--Babe Ruth and Ted Williams--were the practical equivalent of DH's because their defense was so-so at best. I think they put Ruth in RF because he still had a great arm. Williams got LF because he didn't have the great arm, plus he spent most of his time in the outfield thinking about hitting.

Whoa, Nellie. I should have said so, but I believe very strongly that Devers' .920 OPS is mostly because he has embraced the DH position. I also believe that trying to play 1b this season would be a big distraction and result in his OPS plummeting--to say nothing of the increased risk of injury. About Yoshida's .750 OPS. Gonzalez's OPS is .785 and he is due back this week to play 1b. I am sympathetic to Breslow's trying to get some use out of Yoshida's $105M contract. Same goes for Story's $140M contract. In Story's last season for the Rockies, his WAR was 4.3. Now in his 4th season with the Sox, his cumulative WAR with the Sox is 4.2. DD struggled with a similar problem when Hanley Ramirez and Pedro Sandoval played for the Sox. But that Sox team was way better than this one. And that's the point, isn't it? Our problem is that the pitching stinks, and there doesn't seem to be much Breslow can do about it that in the short term. It did not help that he dumped Sale and brought in Giolito.

The Mets have the best pitching in MLB and are tied with the Dodgers, also 29-18, for the 2d best record in MLB. Detroit is best at 31-16. They are ranked 4th in runs scored and 4th in team ERA. The Mets batters have scored the 12th most runs. So tonight's game is a no-brainer and the Sox will fall to 23-26. Except that baseball has a vast capacity for surprising us. Thus will I be watching the game intently. Cora has said publicly his rotation (not including Crochet) needs to "step up." Breslow, the guy who brought in Crochet, a terrific acquisition, is also the guy who dumped Sale (and paid his salary with the Braves where he won the NL Cy Young) and brought in a disaster named Giolito for a cool $40M for missing one season and stumbling this one. Funny thing, but Breslow was a MLB pitcher for 10 seasons. My opinion, which ain't worth much, is that all this hullaboo about 1b and Devers is Breslow's way of covering up this disastrous pitching staff. Despite the brilliance of Crochet, the team ERA is ranked 20th in MLB. Breslow has tried to get us to believe that the team is faltering because Devers won't play 1b (even though Devers' OPS of .920, all as the DH, is his highest ever).

One more time. 1b was never a predicament because Casas' OPS was .580 and his overall WAR -0.8. Gonzalez, due back any day now, has much better numbers. Breslow is the villain in this little charade. I say that because Cora correctly and wisely told Devers--after he was told he would have to relinquish the position he'd played for 8 years--to embrace DH. And that's what happened, so much so that Devers could be headed for the best season of his career. His current OPS, .920, is a tad higher than his best, .916 in 2019. Despite that, Breslow not only went directly to Devers (through a translator of course) to tell him he was needed at 1b, he made sure the press knew about it. Then JH went to KC to make the situation even more public, with the result that Devers has been unfairly condemned as a malcontent. I think Breslow is better than Chaim Bloom, plus it now appears he is being given more money/leeway to hire real talent like Bregman and Crochet. Nevertheless, one of his first moves was to dump Sale and pay his first year salary for the Braves--where Sale flourished and won the NL Cy Young award--and replaced him with Giolito, who is being paid $40M to miss one season and have an ERA of 7.08 this season. So, despite the additions of Crochet, Chapman, Buehler, Fitts, and Dobbins, the Sox ERA is currently 4.16 and ranked 20th in MLB--compared to last year's 4.04 and 17th. Someone has to tell me why Breslow is making all this noise about 1b when it's the pitching that is killing the Sox.

While I certainly agree managers are hired to be fired, I would first remind you that Terry Francona was fired despite breaking the 86 year curse and winning a 2d WS 3 years later. He later was successful as the Cleveland manager, and my guess is that, should the Sox fire Cora, he will be another team's manager pretty quickly. The second thing is that the 2017 Sox, who won 93 games in the regular season, had a lower ERA than the 2018 Sox--and basically the same pitchers both seasons. However, the hitting and scoring were much better, and I honestly think it was because DD brought in JDM, who seemed to me to have a magical effect on that lineup because just about everybody improved a lot from 2017 to 2018. Nevertheless, we have to give Cora a lot of credit because in 2016 and 2017 the Sox won 93 games both years and were eliminated in the ALDS both years. With Cora they won 108 games in the regular season and won the ALDS 3 games to 1, the ALCS 4 to 1, and the WS 4-1. And he did that despite the closer Kimbrel having a postseason ER of 5.91. The collapse in 2019 is easily explained: the pitching collapse, going from an ERA of 3.73 to 4.70. Chris Sale and David Price, both high-priced starters, had horrible years. Meanwhile JH was again footing the bill for the highest payroll in MLB. So he fired DD and brought in Chaim Bloom (CB) no doubt with instructions to somewhat follow the Rays system of low salaries and winning teams. However, the 2021 season was actually pretty good, especially from the managerial perspective. The Sox finished 2d in the AL East with 92 wins, but still won the wild card game over the Yankees, the ALDS series against the 100 wins Rays, and finally lost, 2 games to 4, to the Astros. And he did that without a closer, without Betts, and without Sale, Price, Kimbrel or Porcello. That season confirmed how good Cora was and is. 2022 and 2023 were unsat because the personnel were--and I think the blame belongs to both Chaim Bloom and John Henry. I think Breslow is a better fit, but I sure didn't like his hiring Giolito and dumping Sale (while paying his salary with the Braves). Those two moves alone would explain the continuation of a .500 team last year and again this year. Both seasons the Sox team ERA has been ranked 17th in MLB.

They are both hitting well, but neither is a pitcher, let alone a good pitcher. This reminds me of the hullaboo about moving Raffy to 1b. Everyone who has played 1b since Casas went on the IL has done as well or better than Casas. Meanwhile, as the DH Devers could be about to become our best hitter despite the terrific season Bregman is having. So far Raffy's OPS this month is 1.132, not including today's game. Bregman's OPS for the season is .951 and Raffy's is .920. Is that remotely possible because he has been the DH? Someone needs to explain to me why Breslow insists on messing with success. Right now the hitting/fielding half of the team is doing much better than the pitching half, so management has some justification for not bringing up Mayer and Anthony. On the other hand, I would love to see them play for Boston. Not sometime this season, but right now.

20 years is elite.

Oh, for crying out loud, it's a judgment call on errors. Most are pretty obvious, but seem are close calls. I'm fine with whatever is decided. I completely agree errors are just one part of judging defense, especially with the 2025 Sox.

Agree. Duran is coming around, and I think Rafaela as well (.800 OPS in May). Narvaez WAR is a whopping 1.4. And so on. You can't expect a perfect lineup, so you have to accept Story not hitting, and Gonzalez (1b) on the IL) and now Campbell struggling (at the plate and at 2b). If people would only appreciate how valuable a good DH can be, they would stop pointing fingers at Devers, who was told by Cora to embrace his new position of DH. FWIW In short, the hitting and fielding are pretty good. It's the pitching that stinks.

Got it. The real issue with this team is psychological. If they wanted to win, they could. Simplest in the world. The central reality of baseball is that pitching and hitting dominate game outcomes and are both very hard to do well. While I'm sure there is a psychological dimension to pitching and hitting, it affects players as individuals far more than as members of a team. Last night Giolito had a bad night, but the Sox still won. Today Bello had a bad game, and the Sox couldn't cover his 7 runs which, by the way, are the norm for a starter before he is pulled. Then Newcomb gave up 3 more, but in 4.2 IP, which was actually commendable. The rest of the bullpen rested. Back to your point. I don't see a "losing mentality" but do see a lousy pitching staff even though every single one of them wants to get hitters out, not give up runs, etc. And this. The one player on this team who should/could have a "losing mentality" is Devers. I mean, isn't that true of all DH's (and former thirdbasemen) who refuse to play 1b? But Devers is hitting up a storm.

Don't blame Cora. This is on Breslow. I now understand why he went public about what a bad guy Devers is and then got JH to go to KC to drive that point home publicly. I think Old Red has labelled him insubordinate. To remind everyone: replacing Casas at 1b was and is the easiest thing in the world because he was having a lousy season. It's all to distract the fanbase from realizing this team is unlikely to make the playoffs because of the pitching. Full credit to Breslow for bringing in 2 very good pitchers, but less credit for spending $40M on Giolito and letting Sale go (while paying his salary of course). And guess who is getting close to being the best hitter on a team whose only strength is hitting? The guy Breslow has gone out of his way to paint as an unworthy teammate and player. Apparently, anyone who becomes a DH is a leper.

Verdugo was insuborinate, repeatedly. Devers is just defending himself from the big moves Breslow wants to make. Not--I repeat, absolutely not--to replace Casas at 1b because anyone could do that. He was having a lousy season. Breslow wants Devers on 1b so that Yoshida can DH, but he won't admit it. Also, do I need to remind you that for 8 years straight it was open season for castigating Devers for his no good, low down, rotten defense? Now, suddenly, he is expected to play a nifty 1b. Maybe he could, but we don't know that. Meanwhile, he is flourishing as the DH, is the only Sox player who has played all 47 games, is tied for the team lead in rbi's with 37, has the 2d highest OPS, and has the 2d most total bases on the team. Plus he is a lot less likely to get injured as a DH and as a result will play more games (160?) and wreak havoc with his bat. Why mess with success?

So far this season Wong has 0 passed balls. It's also pretty obvious that Narvaez is our best catcher (who also can hit).

You could be right about the miasma and certainly others have pointed out the errors, lousy baserunning, striking out with men on base, walks and other failures by the pitching staff, especially the bullpen, etc. My no doubt pollyanna view is that players want to excel in every game. Thus one of the all-time great grabs by Abreu and Rafaela a couple of games ago--in a losing cause, but it was a game-saver when it happened. Or Duran's 5 triples out of 7 by the whole team. I like what I've seen of these Sox players: Bregman, Abreu, Rafaela, Devers, Narvaez, Refsnyder, Gonzalez, Campbell, and even Duran. Among the pitchers I like Crochet and Chapman of course, but also Bello, Wilson, Fitts, Weissert, Dobbins, Buehler, Giolito, and Bernardino. That doesn't mean I wouldn't like to see Mayer and Anthony moved up. I would put Anthony in LF and keep Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF. Mayer to SS, Story to 2b, and Campbell to 1b--or leave Campbell at 2b, bench Story, and put Gonzalez at 1b.

I never said the manager should ignore those differences. My point is that managers should feel free to go against the percentages based on what he is seeing on the field of play. Last night was a good example of that when both starters went 7 innings. On the other hand, as recently as last season (or was it the year before), almost all of us cringed when Houck faced a lineup for the 3d time.

They won three straight WS for owner Charlie Finley. Reportedly, he was a terrific judge of baseball talent and used it.

While I can't disagreee with all the negative comments--the Sox did make 3 baserunning errors and the bullpen did give up 5 straight walks to give the Braves a 4-1 lead and win--I'm not confident the Sox score any more runs than the 1 they got from Ref's dinger. I thought the game was over when Crochet gave up 2 dingers, but he ended up with a quality start, 2 runs in 7 IP. Sale, meanwhile, looked better than I can remember him. His slider was almost unhittable, even when thrown to righties. That said, the bigger picture is that these Sox are getting good at losing when they could have won. It's mostly the bullpen, but the baserunning has also stunk. On the hitting side, strikeouts with men on base and men in scoring position. Too many errors on defense.

What "politics of Boston baseball?" Explain that, please.

Good article backed up by persuasive stats. Moonslav makes a key point that this mess--both Story and Yoshida--was Chaim Bloom's doing. But in his defense I would remind everyone that JH was determined to keep the payroll down. Plus I think Campbell, Mayer, Anthony and others were all the result of Bloom's stewardship of the draft and MiLB development. I would of course love to see Mayer moved up and into the SS slot, but I also like Harmony's cautionary note that Mayer might not be a dramatic improvement. Right now I'm inclined to support Breslow's judgment on when to bring up Mayer--or Anthony for that matter. I disagree with how he handled Devers on the 1b caper but not with his overall intent. I think Devers is an excellent DH, but his value to the team increases if he can hit and play 1b adequately. Right now the Sox are ranked 6th in MLB in runs scored and 16th in team ERA. I think those two numbers beg the question, "why are we obsessed with hitting when our biggest problem is pitching?"

Of course I agree that the hitter benefits from facing a pitcher for the 3d time. However, those two OPS's don't seem very far apart to me. I think almost all managers are aware of the third time through the lineup challenge, but also consider other trends by that pitcher in that game as well as in past games that season. It's actually a good thing when a starter successfuly pitches 5, 6, 7, or even 8 or 9 innings. The genius of the movie Moneyball is that it's based on a season and team that really happened. Thus are we compelled to agree with the John Henry character who recounts how little the A's paid for each win in 2002 in comparison to the Yankees. Near the end of the movie he raises sabermetrics to the level of holy writ and condemns all the scouts and managers in the known universe for relying on judgment. I love stats. We all do. But there is still room for baseball judgment.

Sunday, May 18, and Cora is quoted as saying he will be ready to play.

Casas was having a terrible season, WAR -0.8. His injury was tantamound to a godsend. Gonzalez's OPS is 200 points higher than Casas' .580 this season and he is due back this weekend. Right now I'm convinced the best option for Raffy is to leave him at DH if for no other reason than that he is paid to hit and does so. Meanwhile, there is no need to acquire a first baseman. For example, if you don't like Gonzalez, Kristian Campbell's defensive WAR at 2b is -0.6, so why not move him to an easier infield position? This would allow Breslow to bring up Mayer to play SS or 2B. The bigger picture right now is that pitching is the team weakness and debating who plays 1b is just silly. In the American League just 2 teams, NYY and Clevland, have scored more runs than the Sox. Also in the AL, however, only 3 teams have given up more runs than the Sox.

I was disappointed when I saw the run differential next to 1 more loss than wins. But I think your point is correct--it should give us hope.

Love that analysis. I can only add that Whitlock has a huge repertoire for a reliever. One of the best Sox reliever/closers was Koji Uejara, who basically used just two pitches, a slow fastball and a slower splitter--and they were more than enough.