Maxbialystock

Ahem. We've already seen how difficult it has been for Mayer to adjust to MLB pitching. The simple fact is that the hitting was hurt bad by the Bregman injury. I'm still in favor of bringing Anthony up, but I'm less sure than you he can fix the hitting this season.

Afraid so.

Can't get the game, so have reverted to NESN radio, which is pretty good. What's happening is not so good.

Love line 2.

Pitching has been a problem all season long, but now the hitting suffers from the absence of Bregman. The Sox lost 5 straight after Bregman's last game (for an estimated 2 months). We all like Mayer at 3b, but his OPS so far is .554. Against righty Schwellenbach Cora is repeating last night's lineup: Duran, Devers, Abreu, Narvaez, Mayer, Toro, Story, Campbell, and Rafaela.

Yes, it is.

Chapman needs to keep using that slider to keep the hitters from sitting on that excellent fastball. He gets in trouble when he keeps throwing heat. As for Crochet, the point is to win games. He's been great almost every time he's pitched, but he hasn't won many because of the other 24 players on the roster.

Neat game. Big play by Toro on that bad throw. And didn't Rafaela go way back for a drive to CF? 40,000 came to see these teams play in Atlanta. 5 relievers, but I think all were necessary.

Agree.

What breaks? All I've seen is good hitting and pitching and fielding. This 5-1 lead is earned.

Surprise of surprises, I do. One heckuva game and it's a long way from over. Since I am the only one who ever said replacing Casa was the easiest thing in the world, I can't help noting that Toro's OPS is .843 and he just made a terrific grab of a horrible throw by Story for out 3 in the 7th. Also a shout out to the radio guys on NESN. They are constantly on topic with lots of insights, plus they get really jazzed when the Sox do something right--like Story's dinger tonight. I used to listen (1953-54) to Curt Gowdy call the games. He was terrific, but I like these guys more. Nice grab by Mayer!

Emphatically agree with both of you about not giving up. While I love Breslow's acquisitions this year, I can't forget that he dumped Sale for Giolito last year. I also didn't like his bypassing Cora to tell Devers to play 1b and that's mostly because I think DH is the right slot for Devers this season.

Given that Story's hitting stinks and his range has lessened at SS, that's where Rafaela could go. Story to 2b, where he was pretty good in 2022 (WAR 1.0). Christian to 1b. With Anthony basically replacing Toro in the lineup, the Sox should get a nice uptick in offense/hitting. Plus Christian just might be better at 1b than at 2b, where his DWAR is -0.7.

Good point. The current MLB pitching dictum is not to let a starter go through the opposing lineup a 3d time because the stats say the other team will hit your starter hard. I say that depends on the starter. Crochet seems fine the 3d time through. Last year Houck was fine the 3d time through. In 30 starts he averaged 6 IP per game and had 19 quality starts. Another key factor of course is "how good is your bullpen?" Ours ain't that good, plus I think they are being overworked. Another factor has to be the pitching coach. Two no doubt insignificant factoids: last year Houck was great and this year he stinks; last year Pivetta stunk and this year he's the Padres' ace. What did our pitching coach say about 18 months ago when Bregman wanted to dump Sale and get Giolito?

I said that already when I discussed the ongoing 5 game losing streak. As for "help," I don't see many good options. I'd love to see Anthony move up, but, with Bregman gone for at least 2 months, the 2d, 4th, and 5th best WAR's on the team belong to Abreu, Rafaela, and Duran. (Devers has the highest WAR and Narvaez is 3d. On this Sox team, it's the infield that needs help. Story can't hit and had lost some range, Campbell has stopped hitting, and Sabol never has hit. If Anthony wants to get to Boston ASAP, he should think 1b.

And the pitching, despite the addition of high-priced Crochet and Chapman, is just as Notin says--ranked 17th in team ERA, it's no better than last year's and therefore stinks. Historically, the Sox have been terrible at developing pitchers on their MiLB teams. Breslow is a former MLB pitcher (10 seasons) and is the guy who dumped Sale and paid $40M for Giolito. Last year Sale won the NL Cy Young, and this year he has a lower ERA, more IP, and more quality starts than anyone on the Sox not named Crochet. However, despite his lousy ERA (5.27), Giolito has 3 quality starts in 5 games. Plus I haven't quite given up on Buehler (ERA 3.95) and Bello (ERA 3.83).

One game can't tell us spit. If it could, the 19-5 win 6 games ago could not possibly have led to 5 straight losses (and still counting). It's the 5 game losing streak that is scary because it revealed the Sox ineptitude in piching, hitting, fielding, and even running the bases. In those 5 games it was the Sox hitting that sucked the most. The pitching was actually decent in games 1, 3, and 4. I don't recall any great baserunning feats, but do remember a number of gambles that failed. For most of the 5 games, I think the defense was pretty good--until last night.

Actually, you said Bregman sucked this year because of the 5 errors and fielding percentage of .967. While I support the DWAR approach to measuring defense, I think for infielders it probably leaves out one factor I think is important--and that's double plays. And right now the Sox are ranked 3d in double plays per game. For that reason alone I'm not all that distraught about Story's DWAR. Also this. Casas's DWAR was an awful -0.7, but I liked the way he fielded throws to 1b. Plus I'm pretty sure that this season he intiated at least 2 double plays with excellent throws to 2b and then hustling back to 1b. He was routinely awful on pop flies and only a little better on grounders. If his OPS had been .850 I would have been very happy with him at 1b. And that leads to my final point. Scoring runs is job 1 for the infield and outfield and DH. That's especially true when we know that team fielding percentages suggest all defenses are equal.

The fact is that, based on his DWAR of +0.8, he was tied for 3d best fielding third basemen in MLB when he was injured. Fielding percentages tell us nothing.

The fact is that, based on his DWAR of +0.8, he was tied for 3d best fielding third basemen in MLB when he was injured. Fielding percentages tell us nothing.

Sounds awful if you are completely ignorant about percentages. If by some strange happenstance you aren't ignorant, you would realize there ain't a lot of difference between Bregman's 97% fielding percentage and an impossible to achieve (for thirdbasemen) 100% fielding percentage. Actually, Clement of Toronto has the highest at .986, which rounds off to 99%. He was just 1 error to Bregman's 5. Consequently, the only way to "measure" fielding prowess is to look at range, difficulty, etc. They are all important. And that's why Bregman's DWAR is +0.8, which is tied for 3d best among MLB thirdbasemen. The same thing applies to team defensive stats. Right now the Sox with their 46 errors have an absolutely abysmal fielding percentage of 98%. That's right--go look it up. And the pristine, wonderful fielding percentage of the Rangers is 99%. That's a 1% difference between the best team in MLB and the worst. So the only want to measure real team fielding prowess is to dig into the details of each and every player. A quick and dirty version of that is to check, position by position, the DWAR's of the Sox players. Right now Narvaez leads all MLB catchers with a 1.0 DWAR. Ditto Abreu in RF with 0.8. Ditto Rafaela with 1.3 in CF. In LF Duran is treading water at 0.0. Same goes for Story at SS, 0.0. Kristian Campbell is underwater with -0.7. Ditto Casas at 1b, -0.6, also Toro, -0.4, and even Gonzalez, -0.2. A rough assessment of those Sox DWAR's is that the outfield and catcher are well above average and the infield well below, especially with Bregman out.

Better than spending 10 times that amount on Yoshida and Story. Long term contracts are always a gamble, but at least the total amounts are pretty small.

Very funny. To Cora's credit, he convinced Raffy to embrace the DH position, where in fact he has been very successful--and that's where he should remain, at least for this season. Anyone could play 1b for the Sox as well as Casas was when he injured himself.

"Since the start of spring training," the problem has not been with Devers going to DH. In fact he has flourished there. And don't forget Devers hated giving up 3b, where he's played for 8 straight seasons. Bregman, however, was a significant improvement and has done well for the Sox. Now he's out for maybe two months and that's a huge blow to this team. JH doesn't have a busy schedule. I think he went to KC to take the spotlight off Breslow who bypassed his manager to tell Devers he should play 1b. What I will agree with is that this team right now is inconsistent on the mound, at bat, in the field, and running the bases. Maybe that's on Cora even though I think he's an excellent manager.

You think the guy whom every hated at 3b for 8 years is going to be the 8th wonder of the world at 1b, where he's never played? One more time. Casas' injury was actually a good thing because he was stinking up the joint. Sogard ain't much, but he's no worse than Casas was. As for the all the errors today, they were by the regulars--Abreu in RF, Duran in LF, and Campbell at 2b. That's how we started the freaking season. So this ain't Raffy's fault, not by a long shot. Plus he batted in 2 of the Sox 5 runs today.