Maxbialystock
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
Maxbialystock replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Ruthless to me means don't be afraid to trade anyone away. I could not agree more that Breslow lied to Raffy and then drove him away by insisting he play 1b when he was thriving at DH. That said, I also think the arrival of Bregman meant Devers' days with the Sox were numbered because Raffy loved playing 3b and had been promised he could keep it. Cora ameliorated the situation by convincing Raffy to embrace DH, which absolutely worked. However, $30M/year for a DH is kind of pricey. Let's not forget that Yoshida is getting paid $18/year and can only DH. So the Sox were really paying $48M a year for their DH. Make sense? -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
Maxbialystock replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
His DWAR is +0.6, ranked 11th in MLB. But I would be delighted with Story at 2b and Mayer at SS, his natural position. Story was terrific at 2b his first season with the Sox. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
Maxbialystock replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I don't want Breslow to Mr Goodguy. He needs to be smart and, when necessary, ruthless. Despite the many times Brad Pitt as Billy Beane in Moneyball is seen in the locker room talking to the players, we should not forget that he was in fact ruthless in shaping the lineup and sending players to other teams. Cora is the guy running the team, and he's pretty good at it. Heck, he got Devers to buy into DH. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
Maxbialystock replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Right now I'm fine with a potential infield of Bregman at 3b, Mayer SS, Story 2b, and Toro 1b. You love defense, so do I need to remind you that Bregman, Mayer, and Story have all looked good on defense so far? The four infielders' overall WAR's, in order, are +2.9, +0.6 (in 21 games), +1.1, and +0.4. I don't like paying someone else to take Story, not when we don't have a second baseman remotely as good (although Hamilton is good on D). Campbell can't field and is struggling at the plate. Rafaela might do, but he's awfully good in CF. Let's see what Cora does tonight with Abreu back and Anthony getting lots RF time. If the outfield is Doran, Abreu, and Anthony, maybe Rafaela goes to the infield--or, as you opined, backup for both infield and outfield. -
I am not trying to justify trading Devers. I wrote (and you ignored) that he was terrific as the DH and, when Bregman returned, would be terrific again. My points are two. First and foremost, the recent success is entirely because of the pitching and despite the absence of Abreu, Bregman, and now Devers. In fact, Devers did little to get those 8 wins. And did you not notice that the Sox, on a dreaded west coast trip, just took 2 of 3 in Seattle? My second point is that Bregman was the big difference maker for the scoring this year. Yes, absolutely, he and Raffy were a great combo at the 2 and 3 slots. Credit Cora for putting them there in the lineup and getting Raffy to buy into DH. And credit Breslow for signing Bregman. I agree the 8-2 record is a small sample. moon is going ape about the loss of Devers. My point is that, while Devers is definitely a loss, he was not the be all and end all of the 2025 Sox. As I keep harping on, the pitching is half the freaking team and their recent great starts in 8 of 10 games are great news. If that keeps up, I doubt Raffy will be missed--but I don't expect that. I'm with moonlav in believing that to get to the postseason the Sox hitting needs to get better and the loss of Devers doesn't help. On the other hand, as I keep saying, we were also missing Abreu and especially Bregman. Abreu plays tonight and Bregman is due back in July (I'm hoping early July). It helps that right now both catcher and 1b positions are hitting better than last year. It potentially helps that Mayer and Anthony are on the team and were very highly rated prospects. Mayer already looks pretty good. And I can't believe the #1 prospect in baseball won't deliver this season. I also like moonslav's notion of a DH combo of Yoshida and Refsnyder. Neither has Raffy's power, but both could deliver .850 OPS's. I could not agree more with you and everyone else that nothing this season is guaranteed. But that also includes the notion that the loss of Raffy prevents the 2025 Sox from getting to the postseason.
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Very well said. I rooted for Raffy because of his hitting and what seemed to be his joyous attitude toward the game--and despite his low DWAR. Breslow screwed him first by lying about 3b and then by demanding he play 1b after he did so well as the DH. We now know replacing Casas was the easiest thing in the world. The fact is, Devers was having a banner season as DH because of his higher OPS and the fact that he didn't miss a game. Should he have learned English? Probably. But a lot of people struggle with new languages, plus interpreters were always readily available, plus he was getting paid a lot of money. I too am OK with his departure because I like the overall direction of the Sox. To me the turnaround by the pitching staff more than makes up for the loss of Devers. I am not saying he won't be missed because he will. But I'm upbeat about the rest of the lineup still with the Sox, especially after Abreu returns tonight and Bregman in July. moon makes a good case that a combo DH of Yoshida and Ref would ameliorate the loss of Devers. I look forward to the development of the rookies, including Narvaez who was a steal.
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This is true of all managers since at least 1901. 50-50 hindsight rules.
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Nice, but--and I am serious here--I've discussed a lot of his points in my previous posts. And so have you. I know I was the first to point out how Devers OPS fell off after Bregman went on the IL. OK, water under the bridge. Since you are the one responding to the OP, I offer 2 thoughts. The first is the Yoshida/Ref DH caper which you dreamt up. That alone makes the DH slot good if not great as it was the Raffy. Speaking of whom I was one of the few who said he was perfect as the DH because his OPS was better and because he MISSED NO GAMES. Now that the Sox pitching seems to be coming to life, I think the Sox would be ready for a great run when Bregman returns with Raffy as the DH. Breslow messed up twice. First he lied to Devers, then he told him to play 1b. On the other hand, I now believe Raffy was headed out the day Bregman was announced as the new Sox thirdbaseman. The second one is about run differentials in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. They were/are: +80 in 2021; -52 in 2022; -4 in 2023; +4 in 2024, and +18 in 2025. Devers was on all 4 of the previous teams, whose cumulative run differentials add up to +28 total or an average of +7 per season. Now it's +18 in half a season. So it's a bunch of crap that Devers was or is superman. We know Bregman has made a huge difference this year because he was on none of the first four teams, 2021-2024. However, I'm perfectly willing to agree that the Devers/Bregman combo worked like gangbusters. As for the rest of the article about who will step up, I have no disagreement but believe you already covered that ground. And ain't it nice he mentions that the pitching has picked up? So gracious of him. They are only half the freaking Sox roster!!!! 13 lineup players and 13 pitchers: it takes two to tango.
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Passan: Boston Red Sox Optioning Kristian Campbell
Maxbialystock replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think most of us thought it was time, that is, if the Sox want to win games. Right now Christian is a defensive liability--ditto hitting. That 8 year contract should soften the blow. -
Of course the NL is better and the AL this year is mediocre. But the Sox play 19x4 = 76 games against AL East teams. Plus to me that tight shot group of 6 teams in the hunt for the 3d wild card means that, even if the Sox get hot, we can expect at least 1 of the other 5 to get hot. A good sign is that, of the those 5 teams, the Sox have the best run differential, +18. Giants finally win, 2-1. No runs scored or driven in by Devers. A pinch-hitter, Flores, drove in both runs with a double. Cleveland now .5 games back.
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I don't see Bloom as "henchman" and I sure don't see him as the purposeful disassembler of the 2018 Sox team. I think he was simply put under a restrictive budget, unlike DD who pretty much had carte blanche. The 2018 Sox had the highest payroll in MLB. So did the 2019 team, but they didn't even make the postseason. And that's why DD was let go. He was going to need a whole lot more money to rebuild the pitching staff after Price and Sale went south. Sure, Henry gets some blame, but guess what? The same guy broke the 86 year curse and then brought home 3 more WS wins. He owes us absolutely nothing. Bloom got hired to do more with less, just as the Rays had been doing for over a decade. Mookie left because the Dodgers wanted him and were ready to outbid the Sox. So 2020 and following have been down years except for getting to the 2021 ALCS without a closer. Devers was our best hitter that season, but also our worst defender with a -0.9 DWAR. Cora earned his pay that season. Now Breslow has been hired to right the ship and has been given more money. Thus Crochet, Bregman, and Chapman--none of them bargains and all of them productive. Breslow is far from perfect, but I like the direction and talent of the 2025 Sox.
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Meh to both of you. I don't care what the "organizational culture" is above manager Alex Cora. The front office's job is to get good players who fit the needs of the team. In case everyone has forgotten, under owner JH the Sox have won 4 WS, 1 more than anyone else during the same period (2002-now). Plus he ended the 86 year curse. You think that's because he and the front office were spending time in the locker room? Give me a break. Raffy was pissed because he couldn't play 3b anymore and because he was lied to--all the doings of Breslow, who I completely agree did not treat Raffy well. But whodoyawant playing 3b, Bregman or Raffy? Raffy was great as DH, but overpriced. Plus he was unhappy, so the trade made all kinds of sense, especially now that the pitching looks viable. Oh, I forgot. The pitching is better because the head shed has been talking to them in the locker room.
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All good points which I'm sorry I overlooked. My rejoinders are: 1) we are missing more than one big bopper with Abreu and Bregman both out; 2) I like a projected outfield of Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, and Anthony, an infield of Bregman, Story, Mayer, and Toro/Gonzalez, Narvaez/Wong as catcher, and Yoshida/Ref as the DH; 3) the lineup is only 1/2 the team and it's already decent; 4) this team goes nowhere without better pitching that what saw before the last 8 games in a row; 5) with good pitching Devers absence will be missed a lot less; 6) I also think the defense this year is a big improvement over last year's when Devers was our third baseman.
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I am sure I overstepped statistically. Yours are always better. But I sure like the ring of what I said. Let's try this. With Devers as DH, Bregman at 3b, Abreu in RF, Rafaela in CF, Duran in LF, Story at SS, Campbell at 2b, Toro at 1b, and Narvaez as the primary catcher, most of us thought the Sox wouldn't make the playoffs, primarily because of the pitching. Now the pitching looks pretty good. And I'm saying that, if it holds up, I don't think Devers will be missed and that the Sox will make the postseason. On top of that I kind of like seeing 4 rookies, 2 of whom are already contributing. Plus Anthony's late 2 run double won one game. So I also like the 2026 Sox, especially if some of Raffy's salary helps get us another good starter.
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I don't at all think the trade improved our pitching and won't until those new guys produce. The trade cost us Devers, but his loss became less disastrous and more affordable when the pitching was lights out. And, let's face it, Devers was on his way out the day Bregman was announced as the Sox third baseman. Devers took that hard, especially because he had been promised he would stay at 3b. Cora finally convinced him to embrace DH, where Devers flourished. But Breslow wasn't done and bypassed Cora to ask Devers to play 1b in midseason. In his 9 seasons with the Sox Devers was never THE MAN on a team that made it to the postseason. In 2021 his OPS was a whopping .890, but his DWAR was -0.9 and his WAR 3.5. I'm not high on Toro. I don't think he's another Narvaez. But I do think both he and Gonzalez are an improvement over Casas who stunk before the injury. Toro's WAR is +0.4 and Gonzalez's is +0.6. Casas' OPS was -0.9.
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We know what an iffy pitching staff looks like already. They were the guys dragging us down when Bregman, Abreu, and Raffy were playing every day or almost every day. With THE GREAT DEVERS backed up by Bregman, et al, this team was going nowhere. When Bregman went on the IL, The Sox went to 30-35, and they came back because of pitching and not--absolutely not--because of Devers. I like Devers and thought he was perfect as the DH. But keeping him was absolutely, positively not going to get the Sox into the postseason without better pitching. If the rotation and bullpen are in fact better, we got a shot. If they ain't, we won't. You could be right about the 25%, but I don't care. I find this new team great fun to watch. Four freaking rookies! Narvaez is already a big asset. I expect Mayer and Anthony to be assets this season. Campbell is struggling, but he ain't no bum. And behind those four will be Bregman, Abreu, Story, Duran, Rafaela, Toro/Gonzalez, Yoshida/Ref, and Wong. Plus of course the pitching. There could of course be some regression, but I don't see them returning to their bad ways. Well, maybe Ferris needs to go back to high school. Time will tell.
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Horsehockey!!! The Sox have been without Raffy, Bregman, and Abreu. Plus Raffy was flat not needed in the first 5 wins of the the 6 game streak. The Sox went south when Bregman dropped out of the lineup on May 24. They were 26-26 and went down to 30-35 because he was missed. And the comeback was not, repeat not, because of Raffy. It was because of the pitching. I rooted like crazy for Devers when he was DH, where I think he was a great fit. But I'm also looking forward to Ref and Yoshida manning the DH. You could be right with your "give me Raffy or give me death," but I'm looking forward to the rest of the season. Breslow can certainly be a jerk, but the last thing we need as CBO is the sweetheart of sigma chi.
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I seriously doubt that 25%, but agree on an "approachable GM." I also like your lineup when Abreu and Bregman return and Yoshida/Ref are the DH. Raffy was our best hitter, but to what end when the pitching stunk? The pitching is the thing that will get the brass ring--or at least a postseason stab at it.
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Love it. You're on the side of the OP: Breslow stinks and the loss of Devers is catastrophic. I disagree. In the movie Moneyball, the GM/CBO spends more time in the locker room than the manager. Horsehockey. But the manager is also cold-hearted about dumping players to get what he wants, and I believe that's the way CBO's must be. I don't especially like Breslow because he lied to Devers, dumped Sale while paying his first year salary with the Braves, is paying Gilolito $40M and Buehler $20 for very little return, etc. Breslow inherited a mess created by both CB and his boss JH, who I suspect wanted CB to work miracles the way the Rays do every year--low payroll, high performance. Didn't work. We are now 1 1/2 seasons into what sure looks like a rebuild. Four freaking rookies, all of whom have been or are currently starters, on the big club. Brand new and high-priced Bregman, Crochet, and Chapman who have all been terrific (despite Bregman going on the IL). And right now a rotation that looks astonishingly competent. Duran, Rafaela, and Abreu all had good rookie or sophomore seasons last year and are still around. As moonslav points out, when Bregman returns, the Sox will have a pretty good lineup: Narvaez behind the plate, Bregman at 3b, Story and Mayer at SS and 2b, Toro/Gonzalez at 1b, Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu, and Duran in the outfield, and a neat righty/lefty combo--Ref and Yoshida--to DH. Wong as backup catcher. Plus a revived rotation and a pretty decent bullpen. On top of that, not paying Raffy $280M to DH, which gives Breslow some spending flexibility to go after more pitching or whatever. Yes, there is some risk in letting Raffy go, but to me it's all for the good. For the record, I liked Raffy as DH, where I thought he flourished. But that contract of his is a monster. The day Bregman was confirmed as the Sox thirdbaseman was the day Raffy was headed out.
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I'm a tad optimistic, I agree, but I also think you are a tad pessimistic about the hitting. In fact, I love winning by just 1 or 2 runs. It's great baseball and depends on some timely hitting, some good defense, and as much as possible good pitching. We lost 8-0--fine with me when we win the other two 2-0 and 3-1. Also, I like seeing Mayer and Anthony out there because I think they will get better. Maybe Story and Rafaela already are. Duran's OK. Abreu will help. Narvaez is fine. Bregman will be great. Behind Toro is Gonzalez. Plus I also think the defense is better than you say it is.

