Kimmi

LaRussa probably had it closer than any other manager we've seen.

That is a valid point. I'm guessing someone like Papi would balk at the idea of hitting 1st or 2nd, though he is better suited for the clean up spot. One writer suggested that hitters probably feel more comfortable in a certain line up spot because that is the traditional role that they've always been told they're best suited for. I read something about the insane number of different batting lineups managers used throughout the season. It doesn't seem that most managers are working towards the "comfort and consistency" mantra.

For everyone's reading pleasure, this article expresses my point of view nicely. And if you're so inclined to learn about the other ways in which managers are doing things wrong, here's a link to the full article: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/4/14/2110082/why-dont-sabermetric-gms-have-sabermetric-managers-and-shouldnt-they

I have always advocated for someone who is struggling at the top of the lineup to be moved down in the order. For one, if the player is struggling, he's not the best candidate for being at the top of the order. But just as importantly, I think it helps the batter a great deal to have some pressure taken off.

Why is it common sense? Because it's always been done that way? There is nothing to support that the traditional lineup, or the way the managers have always done it, is better than some unconventional way. Nothing. There is a lot of data out there to support otherwise. Being open minded is being able to accept that something you have forever believed to be correct just might be wrong. You all have no idea how traditional my baseball beliefs have been until very recently. I never realized how wrong I was about so much in baseball until recently. I was willing to accept that my traditional views were wrong. FTR, I am still very traditional in terms of the play of the field.

First off, let me say AGAIN that batting order doesn't make that much of a difference. Fans fret waaaayyy too much over some batter hitting in the 3 hole versus the 4 hole. Switching your #2 and #6 guys would make a difference of 2 runs over the entire season. A mistake as egregious as putting a weak hitting pitcher in the cleanup spot and putting your clean up hitter 9th would make a difference of 16 runs over a season, but no manager would do something like that. The difference between the optimal lineup and a traditional lineup is about 15 runs over a season, 1 or 2 games. Not a huge amount, but nor is it insignificant. That said, no manager is willing to buck conventional wisdom and put someone like Youkilis in the leadoff spot. Therefore, the types of changes that we are talking about in the lineup are negligible. Therefore, let me say AGAIN, that a manager is better off putting hitters where they feel most comfortable. In other words, sabermetric folks recommend that managers go with the human element/dynamics thing. Now if there is a manager out there who IS willing to go against traditional wisdom and set a line up correctly, then that's a different story.

Oki has forever won a place in my heart. I hope he's successful in his return to MLB. Except when he pitches against the Sox, of course.

It's not me that's questioning the entire baseball establishment, it's the sabermetric community. It's what they do. They are not willing to accept that something is a best practice because that's the way it's always been done. You're right about one thing. There hasn't been a manager, successful or otherwise, who has set a lineup the way it should be set. So a team scores 750 runs in a season and everyone says they had a successful lineup. Had they set an optimal lineup, perhaps they would have score 765 runs. Perhaps they would have won one or two more games. The data supports this crazy idea.

The majority of the GMs have been enlightened (although I'm not sold on Dombrowski being enlightened), but that enlightenment has not trickled down to the managers yet, for whatever reason. Believe it or not, the managers are still getting it wrong, on more than just batting orders.

But there is a best way for teams to set their line ups. The line up would likely change based on whether the opposing pitcher is right or left handed, but there is a best way to set a team's line up. It's not going to make much of a difference, but the difference between an optimal line up and a traditional line up is about 15 runs, IIRC, which could be the difference between making the playoffs or not in a tight race. The idea that "it works and has always" worked is traditional thinking at its best.

I was reading one article that stated that it did seem like more managers have put one of their best hitters in the #2 spot the past couple of years. Maybe they're finally starting to come around.

I am sure that it is very difficult to get tickets to that series.

They use data from all of the games that have already been played. They know the run expectancy of each of the 24 base/out states, and they know the average number of runs produced by each event (single, double, etc.) from each batting spot.

We're getting close!

Mine seems to be working fine.

That's the thing. If you don't agree with the idea, you won't find the stats compelling no matter how much data is out there, and there is quite a bit. It's the same traditional thinking that most managers have.

Most teams do not have a beast in the 2 hole. Managers are still gravely mismanaging lineups. The #2 hitter should be one of your best 3 hitters. Here is a graphic of what the #2 hitters look like in comparison to the other spots. It hasn't changed much since 1913. Also notice that managers are still putting their best hitter in the #3 spot because that's what traditional wisdom tells them to do. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/u/images/Lineup.jpg

It is interesting to note that projections and updated projections beat seasonal performance to date at any point in the season. In other words, if you want to know how a player is likely to do for the remainder of the season, look at his updated projections, not at what he has done so far that season.

Yeah, it is. Bummer for the kid.

I have said many times that batting order doesn't matter much, and making a change like switching your 3 and 4 hitters might amount to one run over a full season. I have also said that batting order makes such little difference that managers are better off placing a batter where he feels most comfortable, and constructing a R-L-R-L lineup, mostly to disallow a LOOGY to pitch to more than one batter. In other words, the stat geeks are telling managers to forego the stats and go with the human element or "dynamics" instead. Imagine that. Just to be clear though, that recommendation is not because the data is faulty or untrue. It's because batting order makes such little difference, especially when managers are not willing to create a truly optimal lineup, ie batting someone like Youkilis in the leadoff spot. Also it should be noted that managers really aren't giving much consideration to the "comfort" of the players in regard to where they bat. Managers are constantly changing lineups.

Jung, I would really like to respond to you, but seriously, I can't when you write a novel like this.

You can continue to not buy into data that doesn't support your opinion, and I will continue to think of you as a traditionalist.

Yes, you will. The research is based not only on thousands of actual games that have been played, but also on countless simulations that are done with every possible line up configuration imaginable. Even with your best OBP guys in the #1 and #2 spots, you still don't want your best hitter batting 3rd.

What do you mean by that is the way it is supposed to be? As far as speedy guys go, it is more advantageous to put them in front of your singles and doubles hitters rather than at the top of the lineup. They would probably serve a better purpose batting 6th or 7th than they would batting 1st or 2nd, unless they are also high OBP guys. One of the most errant slots in the batting order is the #2 guy. Here's a quote from Mitchel Lichtman on the topic: "Probably the worst lineup offense that managers commit is putting a scrappy, speedy, bunt-happy, bat-control, but poor overall offensive player in the two hole." As a side note, pretty much any article by Lichtman is great reading. You all should peruse his website when you get a chance.

He should bat 4th. For the leadoff guy, OBP is king.