Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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Most of the things you've posted as influencing an AB do not remove the randomness. Quite the opposite. They are the types of things that the stat geeks refer to as randomness. In other words, they are reasons why a batter might or might not get a hit beyond his actual ability or talent.
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Saying that it should be repeatable every time in a pressure situation was a bit much on my part. But it should be repeatable to be statistically significant, meaning that someone does it more often (or less often) than what would happen by random chance. As for the statement that I've bolded, that's not what I'm saying at all. In fact, if anything, the better a player's regular season numbers, the better the chance that he's a clutch hitter.
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I agree that it was a clutch hit. If I'm not mistaken, the Sox loaded the bases with 0 outs. The next 2 batters both made outs without pushing across any runs. Had Carmona gotten out of that inning without giving up a run, the entire complexion of the game would be different. OTOH, the pitch that Drew hit out was right down the middle of the plate. Can it really be considered a clutch hit if you're given a cookie?
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2017 Spring Training Thread - Everything Sox ST
Kimmi replied to southpaw777's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
You may be right. This from Merloni earlier today: Pablo looks outstanding from the left side. Smooth, hits w/his hands. Right side? Too much body and arms in his swing. Not smooth -
Swihart did an admirable job for us in 2015. I am in no way criticizing him for that season. That said, playing in the big leagues is a little different than playing in AAA in terms of working on development, isn't it? If there are areas of weakness, they can be addressed and focused on easier at the AAA level. I think being rushed up in 2015 slowed his development. Playing left field last year may very well be contributing to his throwing woes this year.
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Ultimately, I agree. I'd prefer not to give up on him as a catcher yet.
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Yes, I agree he would be a good hedge against Pablo. I'm just saying that if the Sox want to see what Swihart can become as a catcher, they need to leave him behind the plate.
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Going to Ft. Myers for spring training games is on my bucket list. I really want to go. I'm envious. I'm also envious of you folks who are season ticket holders. Maybe when I retire.....
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This would require me to remember all of JD's hits, which is the type of thing I'm terrible about. I'll bite and go with the postseason grand slam since that's all I can think of.
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I do agree that mental toughness exists.
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I don't disagree with that. My main point of disagreement is the idea that players are becoming otherworldly at will in clutch moments.
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And when your opinion is not supported by the stats? Are you wrong in those cases?
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Been there, done that. It's a magical moment and it is indeed one of the best feeling in the world. As I've said, I think it's likely that all of us have experienced what you define as clutch. The hair on the back of your neck standing up and the goose bumps are likely the effects of adrenaline. The sense of calm is brought on by one's ability to handle pressure, or to be non-choke. Performing at a higher than normal level? For what? One at bat? One inning? One set of free throws? Even one 90 yard drive in football? That is far too small a sample to attribute to anything other than luck. Unless you or any player can repeat that higher level of performance every time you are in a clutch situation, or at least enough times that it becomes statistically significant, it's nothing more than luck or randomness.
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Swihart's value is still the best if he can be a starting catcher. IMO, having Swihart focus on catching has more to do with that than it does about the team's confidence, or lack thereof, in Leon and Vazquez. I think much of Swihart's problem to date is that he hasn't been allowed to properly focus on catching and developing behind the plate. He has been rushed into various situations out of team need. Swihart could probably play a respectable 3B, but for now, I think it would be a mistake to have him start working out at that position. I would like for him to have at least half the season in AAA focusing on just his work behind the plate. It would be nice to see how he can develop. He might surprise some people.
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2017 Spring Training Thread - Everything Sox ST
Kimmi replied to southpaw777's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Pablo Sandoval has resumed switch hitting. He has been getting in extra workouts. He still has to produce on the field, but I like what I've seen and heard so far. -
This is why we keep Notin around. He makes the good points.
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I agree with that Bell. I can accept that clutch, defined as the ability not to choke, does exist. But with that, I would consider most major league players to be clutch, as I've said before. What I'm not buying into is the idea that some people can willingly raise the level of their game to a better than average level when the pressure is on.
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Well said Notin.
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Agreed. I wonder if baseball players are more superstitious than athletes in other sports.
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Right, because you are one who only buys into stats as long as they support your already established opinion.
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It is very convincing evidence statistically whether one chooses to believe it or not.
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Regardless of who the conversations may or may not have been with, I have no doubt that most players and coaches believe in clutch. As with S5, they've 'experienced' clutch. I think we've all experienced clutch moments. They are magical and they are feel great moments. No one wants to accept that they might have been nothing more than pure luck.
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I 100% believe that whoever is behind the plate can make the pitcher a better or worse pitcher. Confidence, trust, and comfort with the catcher can all affect the performance of the pitcher. Game calling ability has a lot to do with building that confidence, trust, and comfort.
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Good point about superstitions. The funny thing is, even though the rational side of me KNOWS that superstitions don't work, that's not going to stop me from wearing my lucky Red Sox socks or repeating the same behavior that resulted in a favorable outcome the previous time, just in case.
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It is not definitive evidence, but it is far from meaningless. It's actually rather convincing evidence.
