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Kimmi

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Everything posted by Kimmi

  1. Kimmi
    Here's one example that I can give because I have the run expectancy data for the two situations. Let's say that there's a runner on 1B, no outs, in the bottom of the 9th, with the team down by one run. Your #9 hitter is up at the plate. Do you have him sac bunt or swing away? Let's assume the sac bunt will be successful. From a run expectancy viewpoint, the team's chances of scoring a run in that inning dropped by 1.9%, from 41.6% to 39.7%. The difference is not very significant at all. Sadly for me, I don't have access to all of the run expectancy data on how Pitcher A would fare in a situation versus Pitcher B, but the stat geeks do. From what I've read, that difference is surprisingly small.
  2. Kimmi
    I am convinced that the Red Sox lose games and the Yankees win games based on what I do/say or fail to do/say. And yet at the same time, I know that can't possibly be true.
  3. Kimmi
    A valid consideration for the team as a whole. Like I said, I don't know if the frequent days off are having a negative effect on the players or not. It certainly doesn't seem to be affecting Mookie. The philosophy seemed to work for the Astros. That doesn't necessarily mean it will work for the Sox.
  4. Kimmi
    The vast majority of managers' moves are defensible. For one, the managers likely have reasons/insight behind their decisions that we fans are not aware of. For two, from a strictly numbers viewpoint, the run/win expectancy between Decision A and Decision B, BEFORE the event occurs, is usually so small that it virtually makes little difference whether the manager goes with A or B. For many fans, the decision becomes a good or a bad decision based on whether it worked or not.
  5. Kimmi
    Red Sox Homers are the best. Yankees Homers, not so much. Homer Simpson is somewhere in between.
  6. Kimmi
    The only reason I would move Beni down in the line up is if Cora thinks that Beni is pressing and that it would take the pressure of off him. I would not do it for a 'numbers' reason. As professional as the players are, I still think they are mostly creatures of habit and they like consistency. Someone brought up the point in a game thread about how our players might be out of sorts a bit by having too many days off. I don't know if that's the case or not, but I think it's certainly a valid consideration. I support Cora's decision to rest his starters regularly, but I guess we'll have to see what the net effect is over the long season.
  7. Kimmi
    Let's keep the good times rolling! Win!!!
  8. Kimmi
    Haha. Touche'.
  9. Kimmi
    Brock just hasn't been able to catch a break lately, injury wise. His injury does temporarily solve our roster crunch.
  10. Kimmi
    Beer just tastes nasty. Period.
  11. Kimmi
    Dombrowski will likely overpay to keep Kimbrel. I would not, but he likely will.
  12. Kimmi
    Baltimore Orioles 3-1 against the Yankees 3-18 against everyone else
  13. Kimmi
    It's not a low bar. The objectivity of defensive metrics is far better.
  14. Kimmi
    Honestly, I would have preferred holding the runner at 3rd and giving Mookie a chance in that situation. My point is that these decisions always seem so much worse when they don't work. If Nunez had been safe, many would have credited the team's aggressive base running and forcing Granderson and the catcher to make the play.
  15. Kimmi
    No one is trying to argue that UZR and the like are completely objective. Just that they are far more objective than the eyes of a single fan or an official scorer.
  16. Kimmi
    IMO, regardless of how many games it technically is, the reduction of Austin's suspension while Kelly's was not reduced is a message sent to the Red Sox that they were more in the wrong. I think it's bogus.
  17. Kimmi
    The good news for all of you stat loving geeks out there is that these guys are always tweaking their metrics and making improvements to them. Teams have access to defensive metrics that are better than what is available to the public. BIS introduced its enhanced version of DRS called 'PART'. I know that you all wait with bated breath, as I do, for its release to the public.
  18. Kimmi
    A one year sample size is not large enough. A less than one month sample size is almost meaningless. You would have to first regress those values to 0 by about 80%, and even then, the numbers won't tell you much.
  19. Kimmi
    Thank you for this post.
  20. Kimmi
    Let's take the series tonight! Get it done boys! Go Sox!
  21. Kimmi
    Apparently, Cora and Febles do not think that Granderson's arm is all that. They said that they've been challenging his arm for years. Kind of like Johnny Noodle Arm.
  22. Kimmi
    Except if Nunez had been safe and the Sox won the game, it would have been a great send.
  23. Kimmi
    Personally, I am not concerned with our catching. At the moment, I don't really see any area of need. It's still too early to know.
  24. Kimmi
    I think the pitcher/catcher dynamic plays a huge role in how well a pitcher pitches. When a pitcher has his best stuff working, he can probably pitch to anyone and it won't matter. When a pitcher just doesn't have it, it probably doesn't matter who he pitches to. It's all of the games in between where I think a catcher can make a difference. IMO, Varitek was the master in that regard.
  25. Kimmi
    Yes, he will. And even if he doesn't, he's still my CFer.
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