sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Sabbathia went 17-5 with a 4.39 ERA ... so the traditional stats were less amazing. 6.0 fWAR vs 2.7 fWAR is pretty clear. I don't blame anyone for voting for Sabathia - but to me it wasn't close. Plus - Ichiro had every indication of a superstar anyway (for what its worth). I have to reiterate - stardom is a secondary consideration for me ... but this was a case where a secondary consideration did not have to kick in.
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The playoffs are a crapshoot. But it's still how the title is decided - and it's okay to be upset at not winning the tournament and thrilled at winning it. But it is impossible to game it in the same way you can game the NBA playoffs for example. I mean, in my 32 years as a fan I've seen an 85 win team and an 83-78 team win it all. (the 83-78 team more remarkable since it was in the wild card era)
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Any team can win 4 out of 7 - even bad ones. And this historically great REd Sox team got smoked to a significantly inferior Tampa team 3 times in September. Here is the thing - given how pitching rotations work, it is very unlikely that any team is even a 1/3 chance to win every single head to head matchup. I mean the Red Sox were one of two teams to hold the Yankees homerless in the Bronx in back to back games this season ... the other one was the Orioles.
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2018 World Series Champions Boston Red Sox
sk7326 replied to Station 13's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The defense in 04 was not great granted. But the bullpen was at least as good and the rotation was stronger. Backend Pedro had 5.5 WAR, 4th in the American league! Lowe was wildly inconsistent, but coming off of a Cy Young caliber season and obviously flat brilliant in the playoff run. It would be a fun series. I would offer that the 2004 Angels > 2018 Yankees and the 2018 Astros vs 2004 Yankees is fairly close. The 2018 Dodgers were a bit better than the 2004 Cardinals (or a least the Chris Carpenter-less one we faced) The 2007 team had the most dominant end-game bridge with Okajima to Papelbon. That said all 4 teams had good bullpens. Uehara was clearly the best closer of the bunch - though Foulke's crazy flexibility gave him specific special value outside of a traditional closer's expectations. -
This is baseball, not the NBA. All of these series are not much more lopsided than coinflips. The Red Sox won 11 of their 14 games, but every game in the Astros series was still interesting in the 8th inning. The Dodgers with a break could have won Games 2 and 4 of the WS. You get to the playoffs, you can win the whole thing. There are no dead on arrival teams. The best team in the league loses - all the time. The Red Sox should make the playoffs again - and once that happens, you have to like their chances.
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Of course it's a marketing tool. But more importantly - if a race is close, I would consider age as a factor. Ideally an accomplished rookie is an identifier of a star of tomorrow. So if that is the result of the award, it is better for baseball. I absolutely consider that. Now, if the older rookie is clearly the best rookie - like Ichiro in 2001, you don't run from that.
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Ohtani still had what was basically a full season's worth of bulk - 50 innings and 400 PAs is darn close to 600 PAs worth of action.
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If 30 yo Ryan Brasier had the best rookie season by a considerable margin, no. If he is in a dead heat with a 22 y.o. - I'd be inclined to go with the 22 y.o. ... the sport has problems celebrating its current stars, so a chance to do so is worth taking advantage of.
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Ohtani had 3.8 fWAR - you have to add what he did on the mound My ballot would be Ohtani, Torres, Wendle ... Wendle is a rookie, so I have to consider him. But I'd prefer to give it to a young player when its justified ... the award should highlight the future stars of the game.
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Torres could, but it'd be a robbery ... Ohtani was easily the best rookie of the class. 3.9 WAR with what is the roughly the equivalent of a full season workload (51 IP, 367 PAs) despite a fairly inefficient distribution of work for him (his bat was a legit surprise)
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2018 World Series Champions Boston Red Sox
sk7326 replied to Station 13's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'd put them as the #2 seed of our 4-teams ... 2004 I'd put #1 ... better starting pitching, the most complete lineup of the bunch #2 - 2018 2007 #3 2013 #4 -
Andujar to a degree - Devers is a better investment ... better defender (less shaky at least) and 1.5 years younger.
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I think there is a clear number to bring Pearce back - like a year at $6M or so ... put him on the same schedule as Moreland. But the Sox will not stretch for this. Porcello and Bogaerts are both interesting guys to trade - not that they should, but they could get something meaningful with guys they did not plan on signing. Benintendi has another 2 years before arbitration so he is a non-issue for a while
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I will retract on Kershaw ... He has 2 years, 70 million. While he'd never get that on the open market, there IS a chance he can negotiate an extension for say, 4/80 where the Dodgers giving him some extra money and years in exchange for some tax relief.
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It is an interesting starting market. - I am pessimistic about re-signing Eovaldi. Somebody is going to blow away the market with years and the Sox will reluctantly have to let him walk. - I would not be surprised if Pomeranz got re-signed on some sort of short "prove-it" deal. His health and suckiness last year might scare off a hot market for him. Coming back to this team and re-building his market might be the right move. - Charlie Morton, Anibal Sanchez, Hyu-Jin Riu and Derek Holland are all interesting "old guys" who are possibly gettable for a 1-2 year deal. - I see basically zero chance either Price or Kershaw opt out.
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I think that is fair - upon further reflection, swapping him in for Bradley works.
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2004 Damon playoff .268/.297/.465 5-6 SBs ... excellent against Anaheim, terrible against New York (with a couple of obvious exceptions), fine vs Saint Louis Ellsbury playoff 2013 Ellsbury playoff .344/.408/.453 6-7 SBs . Damon's 2004 postseason .268/.297/.465 5 SBs in 6 attempts Ellsbury's 2013 postseason .344/.408/.453 6 SBs in 7 attempts Damon's "greater impact" is almost entirely due to the Game 7 in New York. It was one of the most important games in Red Sox history - but it was one game of a series where he slashed .171/.216/.343
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bWAR: 2013 Ellsbury 5.7 2004 Damon 4.3 fWAR 2013 Ellsbury 4.6 2004 Damon 4.3 Damon was better offensively (123 wrC+ vs 112), Ellsbury much better defensively and was one of the league's most impactful baserunners. I don't sweat differences in WAR too too much, but I am comfortable saying Ellsbury was a better all around CF than Damon. I mean if you can defend Bradley despite his adventures at the plate due to his glove, Ellsbury deserves similar consideration. 2007 Youk beat Napoli in WAR in both flavors (though Napoli was not at all bad). Yook's glove and superior on-base skills take the day. While I am considering single seasons - that Yook was on his way to being one of the league's best offensive players does matter to me when trying to settle something close. I've always maintained that Yook's body falling apart piece by piece was one of those real developments that set the team back in 2012, 2014 etc.
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Bigger body of work in the season.
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The Alex Cora Managerial Decision Thread
sk7326 replied to StephenCurry30's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
He's only done what any half-decent Red Sox manager has done in his first year this century. -
Right - because they are player-seasons and not just players. In terms of the players as they were in the championship years, Kimbrel was clearly the least effective closer. Would be have been an upgrade over Mike Timlin. I'll allow that. Ellsbury had a fantastic 2013, and he had the 2 best CF seasons of any Red Sox player over these 15 years. It is easy to forget since he fell off a cliff in NY. Damon's 2004 was brilliant but 2013 JAcoby played the position better.
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So - what if we made a 25 man all-star team of player-seasons from the 4 teams. I'll use an 11 man staff, and assume we are trying to win a playoff series. It's fun to really be able to relive the seasons again. C: 2004 Varitek 1B: 2007 Youkilis 2B: 2013 Pedroia SS: 2018 Bogaerts 3B: 2007 Lowell LF: 2004 Manny CF: 2013 Ellsbury RF: 2018 Betts DH: 2004 Ortiz (this is actually the lowers OPS+ of the four DH seasons - 2018 JD is totally justifiable here, but my heart can't go there) C: 2007 Varitek OF: 2018 Benintendi OF: 2018 Bradley IF: 2007 Pedroia IF: 2004 Cabrera SP: 2004 Schilling SP: 2007 Beckett SP: 2004 Pedro SP: 2018 Sale CL: 2013 Uehara Set Up Guys 2004 Foulke 2007 Okajima 2008 Papelbon 2004 Timlin Longer Guys 2018 Price 2007 Wakefield
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It is very funny how the perception of the Dodgers is shaped by a loss at home in 2017. The Dodgers got off to a terrible start, were without arguably their best player for the stretch run, and had a good chance to win 3 of the 5 games of the series. They have bottomless funds - they'll figure something out. They need a top of the line starter - because Kershaw ain't it anymore. They'll be fine. I'd put them at #3 probably.
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Arb comps are built using basically 1985 level statistics. So I expect middle reliever comps to be generally very low.