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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. To a degree - the Red Sox farm was still in the Top 10 at the beginning of their playoff contendership. Atlanta is clearly still a step away from making a true win now move. The Cubs were in terrific shape when they made their first playoff. These teams will all make their own flags fly forever deals if the situation warrants - they would be derelict not to if the chance strikes.
  2. Right - I am not necessarily penalizing a DH for usage. For a DH I just go to a higher offensive bar - because a specialist should be expected to do more.
  3. If the Red Sox offer Pearce $2M, he will laugh in their face as well he should. If they offer $5M and a bunch of other people are offering $7M or something - then the other factors will probably kick in. If I were in his position I would want to be paid fairly - maybe not top dollar, but not insultingly so either. (like lester 4/70)
  4. They're not ... and it's not an efficient market anyway. 26 year olds of this caliber just don't hit the open market. Any ten year deal is hard to swallow, but you are buying their entire projected peak. I expect they will sign 8-10 year deals with an opt-out after 3 of 4 years. In the past these clauses have seemed stupidly pro-player ... but in a case like this it makes sense for everyone to some degree.
  5. What is educational is how 5 of the 12 playoff teams are among the bottom 10, while only 3 of them are in the top 10. What is also interesting is that Baltimore and Kansas City are profoundly effed.
  6. If the manager is shielding him from opportunities to provide negative value - that should be a consideration.
  7. Discounts are entirely possible - but not crazy ones. They might pick the Red Sox if they are not the #1 offer. But the Sox will have to at least be on the podium.
  8. To take it out of perspective ... I hate the Yankees Suck chant. We've won a lot ... the Yankees are just another team.
  9. If a DH had a Barry Bonds early 2000s sort of year - then yeah could win the MVP. Heck is a DH had Trout's 2018 he would absolutely be in the discussion for MVP. (Trout had 9.2 oWAR, Martinez was 4th)
  10. If a guy produced all of his WAR against righties ... would you penalize him for being useless against lefties ... of course you would. How the manager used him shielded him from places where he could cause trouble. That the manager has to work around his limitations is not exactly an endorsement Now I do agree that you have to shift the measurement a little for a pure DH ... that WAR won't tell the full story. But a specialist should have a higher bar to clear than a non-specialist.
  11. He is off to a good start.
  12. That most of the announcers at the national level do not seem to like current players is a real problem.
  13. It's always good sense to add pitching - attrition being what it is. Bullpen arms, a high ceiling starter or two.
  14. What is funny is that early ARod was very likeable on TV. (like he really likes baseball) But this year he was not nearly as good with more exposure.
  15. For players it's about the money to a point ... if the offers are close that is one thing. If somebody offers a LOT more that is a different kettle of fish.
  16. Who says it is all about WAR? I am realistic - it's a starting point not an end of the discussion. Now WAR is good for isolating individual contribution - and keeps me from falling into the trap of grading teammates. Now I am not penalizing a DH. I am noting that someone who has one job should be really good at it, better than someone who has other jobs. It's the flipside to why nobody cares whether a pitcher can hit or not. So there is a higher bar for a pure DH than a position player - it's self evident to me. Martinez had an extraordinary season - but there were more valuable ones. No shame in that. I'd also point out that this year has a number of guys in the AL who would have been MVP in many, many other seasons. Trout and Betts were just spectacular ...
  17. It's not a definitively separable skill from "hitting".
  18. One issue with runners left on base ... AS A TEAM - who had the fewest baserunners left on base per game ... Baltimore The Dodgers were 5th, Cleveland 6th, Atlanta 7th, Boston 8th The teams that leave a lot of baserunners - generate a lot of baserunners. I mean last year - where we lamented the Red Sox inability to produce runs, the Red Sox were still 5th in the ML in RISP batting average.
  19. Here is the thing with Harper - on the surface he had a not great walk year ... but it was good. (135 RC+). The lower war was from a bad defensive year. Now I would not sign him because the Red Sox have plenty of options in the outfield. But I expect a deal to be crazy. You just don't get 26 year olds getting to UFA status that often. The Nats have real strong alternatives - which is amazing when you think of it.
  20. He had to play a lot of CF - and that is not optimal. RF he is probably fine - and has a cannon. Now I think this is all moot. I don't think Boston is in on any of those top top guys.
  21. Never say never - though I'd be surprised if the Sox really were going to do that.
  22. 3 ain't happening - not without a team option. If the Red Sox are going to pay the tax anyway, might as well offer 1 yr and 7-8 and see what happens.
  23. I would not be surprised. JD signed late enough in the FA period that the Red Sox signed contingencies - there was just not really a job opening at 1B, and I am not sure how much chance they had to work with him at all. That is a non-issue this year.
  24. I doesn't preclude him from working for the club necessarily ... he was doing studio work the last 2 postseasons ... not much to see here.
  25. Crawford had solid OBPs most of his career - he did not walk a ton but made a ton of contact. He was not a bad OBP guy. If you look at the moves Theo made in 2010/11 - he was shifting away from the early 2000s Moneyball valuation (basically a glorified slo-pitch team) to one where defensive value was premium. Mike Cameron and Carl Crawford were two attempts to address that.
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