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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    ESPN had Witherspooon #10 on their big board https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45688041/2025-mlb-draft-rankings-top-250-prospects-final-kade-anderson-liam-doyle-ethan-holliday Fastball: 55/60, Cutter: 50/60, Slider: 45/50, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/50
  2. sk7326
    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6454202/2025/07/01/mlb-draft-2025-top-100-prospects-holliday-doyle/ Law on Witherspoon, 9th on his big board. Good upside if the staff can turn his 5-pitch mix into a 3-best-pitches mix.
  3. sk7326
    Anything is possible - but the Brewers are like good and stuff. They will need some path to not backslide if they were to do that.
  4. sk7326
    MVP: Garrett Crochet - it's not really all that close. The big offseason acquisition who has been everything we could have wanted. Runner up: Ceddanne Rafaela - he has improved his swing decisions JUST enough. And the bat now combined with a truly elite CF means he is one of the best CFs in the sport. Will this hold up? Who knows - but he deserves his flowers. Honorable Mentions Aroldys Chapman - nothing about his career trajectory pointed to him being the best reliever in baseball Carlos Narvaez - an out of nowhere catcher solution Alex Bregman - the stint on the DL took him out of the running for more than this ... but he has been terrific. He has been a great leader by reports, but I don't want to weigh that too much in contrast to missing a significant block of time.
  5. sk7326
    Both Keith Law (Athletic) and Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) land on guys named Gavins in their final mocks Gavin Fien, 3B, Greak Oaks HS (CA) - had the best batted ball data and results in last summer's showcase circuit but had a meh season in high school this spring. (ESPN's pick) Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee - great batted ball and swing decision data, things the Sox are using more now. The Sox were super college-heavy last year and there is a lot of college depth this season.
  6. sk7326
    The statistics and metrics distinctions as being used in this discussion are mostly total rubbish.
  7. sk7326
    It might be true. The vibes are better for sure. But - at least for now - running into a couple of ho-ho-horrendous teams helped everybody get well.
  8. sk7326
    A lot of this is software as notin pointed out. Effectively cameras and computers are watching every ball hit - especially now with statcast at all the stadiums. The defensive stats now are much better than the old fielding percentage days, simply because there is better data going in. I mean, consider fielding percentage. If we replaced a Red Sox outfielder with a paint bucket - and just left it there. If 1 fly ball landed in the bucket, the fielding pct of 1.000 would be amazing. But we can't say the paint bucket is a good substitute to like, a person. We just have vastly better information on players getting to the ball - which is really what defensive value is for the most part, no? As far as being skeptical - any be-all stat without context deserves skepticism. Is UZR better than defensive runs saved or outs above average? I have opinions, but the real answer is that all of them together give good information. I mean, we accept that batting average, slugging, on-base all provide incomplete pictures of hitting ... but in combination it's not too shabby.
  9. sk7326
    A lot of his analysis has conflated statistical inference and data analysis as "guess work" which honestly veers too far into Carl Everett Dinosaur Theory for me.
  10. sk7326
    I think the trade was silly. But that is separate from how the team is doing now - it's not like there is some salary cap calculus. But what the winning streak I think has shown is that really what this team needed to do was to "play better" ... there was no magic here. There was no magic adjustment or anything - guys who the team were counting on (Giolito, Story, Rafaela) just started to play better.
  11. sk7326
    The Sox could have afforded to keep him - it's still a silly trade. That said, Breslow's moves have all been hits so far - even if the Chapman signing is total found money. (there was zero reason to believe he'd be the best reliever in the AL)
  12. sk7326
    Sigh. Fielding percentages are based on errors - which is, at its core, an opinion. And of course fielding percentage says nothing about actually getting to balls. Yoshida is certainly better against lefties than Abreu - but they are both quite bad. And Abreu is arguably a more valuable hitter against righties ... higher higher slugging with only a slighly lower OBP.
  13. sk7326
    It would be nice to have Priester for sure. The draft pick was probably the prize of the trade - so we'll see there. The .206 kid in A-Ball is less damning than it seems - given how young he is for that level, and at least by the stat line some good swing decisions. But it'd be nice if he showed more.
  14. sk7326
    Abreu's splits are not actually that different than Yoshida. Yoshida has that "proven hitter" smell because the team signed him to hit. Duran had a terrific season in 2024 - though it was his best defensively by a mile. He has been less effective defensively this season at a nominally easier position - but the question is whether 2024 is the rule or the exception. As long as this is the lineup, Rafaela will get some spins at 2B. But Duran makes as much sense as anybody to be traded due to positive value. I'd probably deal Abreu first - but it's not obvious to me.
  15. sk7326
    After his record setting shortest walk off homer ever, nice to see Ceddane get to hit a no doubter.
  16. sk7326
    The first 6 were against hot garbage opponents, but credit where it's due - the Sox won those games decisively - which was not happening earlier in the season.
  17. sk7326
    Rafaela has been the 3rd best CF in the majors. I'm not moving the best or second best CF in the league makes a ton of sense. Now Abreu has struggled against lefties - but at a certain point, it kind of might not matter if he has been as productive as he has otherwise. Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu with Refsnyder as a quite good 4th outfielder is actually pretty solid? And longer term maybe a guy like the Password is going to sort of solve some of this too. (if he is not dealt for pitching, which is certainly plausible)
  18. sk7326
    Final mock draft answers ESPN (McDaniel) - Gavin Fien, 3B, High School (CA). ESPN's #12 ranked available. Uneven spring but very good last summer Athletic (Law) - Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee. McDaniel noted that Sox was interested in him in high school. Law observed Kilen scores well in the batted ball data and swing decision metrics the Red Sox like, and last year 9 of the Top 10 picks were collegians. With the scouting reduction and increased focus on Statcast type data, Law assumes it will remain college heavy. Law's Big Board rankings of Sox connected guys https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6454202/2025/07/01/mlb-draft-2025-top-100-prospects-holliday-doyle/ Gavin Kilen #7 Gavin Fien #12 Xavier Neyens, #17, 3B, High School (WA) Charles Davalan #25, OF, Arkansas
  19. sk7326
    The blindspot OAA has in addition is that it doesn't have much to say about the play at the catchpoint. The dive or leap might not matter enough.
  20. sk7326
    I have been leaning more to OAA just because the inputs are so much higher quality than they have been for UZR/DRS etc. The measurement also seems fairly direct and comparable to some of the metrics that have appeared in other sports (football and golf most notably).
  21. sk7326
    Yeah - it is nice they are playing well. It is wild that Rafaela is leading the team in WAR.
  22. sk7326
    the 30% strikeout rate is an eyebrow raiser ... I am not always sure whether holes in swings get better fixed here or at AAA - and it does vary by guy. But I'm willing to be patient for sure.
  23. sk7326
    It feels like an inefficient use of resources - especially since Mayer has been good at 3B. But it'd be nice if the bat hit the ball more often.
  24. sk7326
    Going back down is not a crime - he moved very quickly ... about time he see some adversity ... we'll see how it goes
  25. sk7326
    From Keith Law's updated Top 50 (2 months in - it is a couple weeks old) - Mayer was in the big club so not under consideration 1. Anthony 8. Arias 46. Garcia Montgomery is at 20, and Teel is at 24 ... so that is looking like a trade that is going to help everybody
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