sk7326

it could, though both of them are definite possibilities to get rotation looks. Early has been the most fascinating pitcher in the system just because while he does not have wipeout stuff on paper, his entire minor league career has been a dude who simply gets batters out.

Indeed, I'd argue that the big mistake Boston made with Mookie was NOT trading him at the 2019 deadline. If they really believed Betts was out the door, you trade from strength and look for a big haul coming back and create a bidding war.

First, the best Sox deadline deal was a "sell" trade ... by far the best was dealing Heathcliff Slocumb to the Mariners for Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek. All other deadline deals pale in comparison. Since Andersen for Bagwell (who was at Double A at the time, and Lou Gorman did not account for Bagwell playing in a pitcher's park at New Britain when considering his low homerun totals), my personal favorite for the worst deadline deal was Lester for Cespedes in 2014. Now, this was not a bad deal if this were your fantasy league, and Cespedes was fine for Boston as a rental. However, the deadline deal for Lester resulted in zero future value, which was astounding for a pitcher of his caliber. The Gagne deal worked out poorly - but I had no issue with the process and there were not many signs that Gagne would totally forget how to pitch.

Keith Law updated Top 60 after the draft: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6502957/2025/07/24/mlb-top-prospects-2025-kevin-mcgonigle/ #9 - Franklin Arias #46 - Password #54 - Witherspoon

Barrett Morgan, the JC 11th round pick - signs for $500K ...

The thing with Duran is that while he has had a rough season, his batted ball data is well in line with last season. I do think teams are going to look at the Statcast numbers and see a guy who just needs some balls to find gaps. Now he is PROBABLY not the defensive player the numbers showed last season - but he is at least average out there. With 3 year of control that is a good player. For Bubic - who appears to be more a really good #2/#3 starter than an ace (which might be why KC is hesitant to give a big extension as a priority) - I agree it seems fair. If the Royals want to hold out for another mid-lower level prospect that's at least worth a discussion.

Duran could be enough. If it's Duran and a Mikey Romero level prospect, I'm not losing too much sleep.

Exactly. He rocketed up to the big club and hit a wall for the first time. Says nothing about his future - that part is up to him.

This is where the scouting matters more I think - as fas whether he should start. If he is getting through AA on fastball and deception, that's great - but not enough to be a plus starter. If his secondary stuff (the real question on him) is acceptable it's a different discussion. Moving him up for the bullpen is more plausible.

The Athletic's recap of the Sox class: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6498722/2025/07/18/al-east-draft-grades-picks-mlb-2025/?source=emp_shared_article

Witherspoon's success at the SEC is notable ... the SEC is probably closer to AA-level competition as it is, and his secondary stuff is rated higher already. Tolle is super interesting, but almost his entire outlook is driven by whether he develops any secondary stuff at all. I can see a more bearish outlook. (and 9th in this system is not all that bearish)

The nice thing about Bello is that he did not have to improve much at all to justify the extension and the price tag. Rafaela was a bit more wobbly - but still cheap. Even if it was unnecessary, it is a bit of who cares for me. Campbell was a bit more reckless. But I think getting him more confident/competent defensively is going to be at least as important in his AAA stay as the bat.

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) revised Sox Top 10 - considering Mayer a graduate, Anthony not (for now) 1. Roman Anthony 2. Franklin Arias 3. Password 4. Luis Perales 5. Juan Valera 6. James Tibbs 7. Kyson Weatherspoon 8. Dorian Soto 9. Payton Tolle 10. Connelly Early he has Ayenson and Phillips cracking the Top 20

LOL. The farm is there to serve the big league club so you have to be pragmatic. My guess is if the team trades, you are looking at that sort of next tier ... guys that probably have appeal to a significant number of teams. If a team thinks Mikey Romero can step in and be a reasonable 2B/OF next season I could see that (he's still so young). The Red Sox also have interesting guys like Valera and Soto who are just so far away (and Valera being a pitcher comes with the health risk). And if a team's scouts or models liked Miguel Bleis, are they still in? And that probably is not going to get you a super premium guy. I think the only way the Sox put in a Top 10 prospect is if we are talking about some guy who feels like he shouldn't be available (like Kris Bubic).

Indeed - I've always argued the time to deal Betts was the 2019 deadline. It would have hurt - but if he was "never coming back" you have to be clear eyed about that and maximize the real return. Obviously "mookie is here forever" was the best outcome, but the player has a role in that too.

I am still mostly against the deal though at the end of day more indifferent. The original sin was the huge deal made almost entirely as a PR reaction to letting Bogaerts walk.

Absolutely. The team control there is tremendous. And could he be amenable to buying a couple of free agent years via extension? That said, he is cheap to the Pirates too, and there is merit in giving your fans some reason to roll out of bed.

It's also incorrect. The premise that teams are backing away from data is completely wrong. Hell, the team this forum was built to argue about just had a big purge of its scouting department! The Astros killed their pro scouting staff. Other teams are doing that and leaning more into StatCast. Other teams that use lots of scouting aren't skimping on the data necessarily - heck the Rays of all teams have been on the forefront of big spending on scouts as well as the analytics. Now he is right that "how do you turn data into performance" is the most important thing - but yes, teams are showing players what their launch angle is and measuring their adjustments accordingly. It'd be stupid not to. Also, the assertion that teams use data for things other than something like WAR is kind of a tautology. He seems particularly mad at WAR, though not even the companies that calculate it would tell you that it is like 0.1th of a win accurate or anything when assessing player value. That said, he has also explicitly blamed DEI for Alex Cora being the Red Sox manager - so I kind of know how much faith to put into his analysis.

Garcia has done better with his swing decisions. He still might not be a great OBP guy, but a plus RF with his power is still a totally reasonable starter if that can be actualized.

I am pretty sure both Mayer and Anthony will burn their rookie eligibility - so removing them from the field I think is fair.

White was the one guy I saw a writeup on the Athletic or ESPN ... from Law's others to watch outside the top 100:

NIL is part of it. The bigger part of it was the contraction of the short season leagues by MLB. Ideally you'd take some these high school bats and just send them to Lowell to get their feet wet. But that option is gone now and it's either the complex league or Salem, which is a tough place to enter cold. And in the Sox' case specifically - if the team really is going to lean more into Statcast and away from in person scouting, then high school is where that will be felt the most. The Red Sox new scouting paradigm will also be challenged on the international front - their international scouts are the reasons for almost all of the org's pitching the last few years.

see if they go the full 10 rounds (where the bonus pool comes from) without a single high school player draftee

for a good reliever possibly - especially given his age. All it takes is one club to still like him a lot. But it does point to imo that there are a decent number of guys with some sort of value (Romero, Bleis, Cespedes, Sandlin) the team could likely put into a buyer's trade without a ton of remorse.

Not surprising. It is just very hard for relievers in general - and 1-inning guys in particular, to pile up the bulk here.