sk7326

He has negotiated a career with that body pretty well so far. Ah to still be youngish.

One known case of the new stuff and scouting going hand in hand is the idea of batting eye - which was less emphasized in scouting because it was seen as a coachable skill. But now that is an important part of the package that is scouted because it is so hard to change. But moreover - the analytics, the technical analysis of results - can't exist in a vacuum. All of the orgs use it to some degree or another, but what separates teams is how you take the information and turn it into actionable stuff, how it comes out in your scouting philosophy and the instructions those guys. It also comes out in on-field tactics. How would it not? It would be waste of money if it didn't.

And if you look at the marginal drop off it still did not drive most of the 26 game drop off. SS was a mild drop off. CF was bad but not enough to do on its own. 3B was bad in 2013 too. The drop-offs at catcher, right field and left field were much more difficult to get past. The failure of platoon magic in LF, Victorino's injuries, the gaping hole at catcher. If Bradley had just hit a little better, most likely he would have only been a light drop off from the regression which Ellsbury would have delivered himself.

Nothing more boring than reporting on spring training so you have to write something. Pablo is a danger not to age well indeed. But the counter is that the Red Sox are paying for his 29-33 seasons - so they might not have to worry too much about that.

The two last place seasons warrant skepticism for sure. That is fair. Considering that the team won 179 games in the two other seasons they missed the playoffs it is hard to get THAT fired up about it. Specifically there are legitimate questions about the current regime's ability to handle kids at the major league level. The last two seasons in Cleveland have shown strong evidence that handling young players (or managing a staff doing so) is something Tito is just very good at. The prior GM/Manager seemed to be better at avoiding excessive reactiveness. Put another way - if the Red Sox choose their starting outfield based on spring training stats again I will scream

Well Moneyball is about process improvement and identifying market inefficiencies. So what was an opportunity in 2001 is clearly not there now. The efficiencies moved to defense - the two World Series combatants were known to be very focused on defensive analytics. The advanced use of shifts is a clear nod towards this stuff. The advances move the way technology moves in business. There are early adopters - which are often teams like the A's or Rays who have no choice but to keep looking to stay ahead of the curve to manage meager resources. Teams like the Yanks and Sox can wait for the more proven stuff. Bigger companies do the same thing - if it ain't broke etc etc etc The skills to play the game in a lot of ways haven't changed - but the skills that orgs value sure as hell has, and analytics have been very much part of it. Obviously a decade ago, the discovery that taking pitches is much more nature than nurture changed an area of emphasis for scouting, that plate discipline is something to look for in high schoolers because it is generally difficult to teach to a meaningful degree. (I've mentioned the glaring exception of someone like Sammy Sosa, but that is very very rate) The sorts of players who make the top of org rankings now has a lot to do with improved knowledge on positional value. Scouting still matters a lot, but what they are looking for has changed. And there is still no substitute for scouting as far as determining makeup and such.

Some truth there. Personally, I will decry the new ballpark exactly as long as it takes for a pennant to get there.

And fortunately the Red Sox will be out by then - they did do a solid job mitigating some of this risk

Camden is certainly preferred - for the ballparks I've visited it's still the best

Moving them out of Fenway would remove the cover for not having a good team - fortunately since 1967 that has largely been a non-issue. I don't know - I get the sense that pink-hat sorts are nostalgic about the old yard, hard core fans a bit less so. Frankly a ballpark with 10,000 more seats and a more affordable bottom tier (and I'm not being a pollyanna here) would not be a bad thing. This brain trust for sure knows how to put together a stadium which would be the equal of Camden or AT&T

I don't think there is a magic bullet here. The adoption of new fangled stuff varies by org, and by where you are in the competitive space. (hell, that's what Moneyball was about) How do you create edges in a competitive space when you have disadvantages in other places. Scouting is interesting - hire the best scouts is fair, but scouting itself has evolved because of the new fangled stuff - so positioning scouting as "other" than the analytical breakthrough is creating a false dichotomy.

Mr Wiki (I know, I know) had Gwynn at 225 and Panda at 240. Neither are ideal, but athleticism was reasonable in both cases. Fortunately Sandoval still has his youth - at least for a bit longer. I never loved the signing - but the reasons for optimism and the case to sign him were defensible.

This sounds cute until you realize that (from both eye test and what has been written by scouting sorts) is that Panda is far, but a good athlete. (I've rooted for Vince Wilfork before, so I am not unfamiliar) Quick hands, feet. He's never going to be Tim Raines or Rickey Henderson or Billy Hamilton ... but like Tony Gwynn, his tubbiness does not mean he can't move.

To me with Panda the larger question is whether there is more power there. His career has always to me seemed to resemble a non-patient Wade Boggs. There is some actual raw power there (the 3 HR world series game) - but his spray charts seem to show a guy who chose going the other way and contact over raking.

It is more information - which is never bad. With analytics, the annoying thing is the fans who seem to think it's eye test or numbers - when they are meant to complement each other. Front offices (Philadelphia) who don't like the other data so much are doing themselves a disservice.

Tom Yawkey wore a pink hat? I know, I know - it was sitting there ...

My Fenway moment - aside from being at a random game where Kevin Romine hit a walk-off, or seeing Roger's 15 K grand return as a Blue Jay ... was probably in 1999. Was at home when one of my parents friends (a season ticket holder) called and said one of their seats got freed up and whether I was up for going - this was about 90 minutes before first pitch ... of Game 4 of the ALDS. Bartolo Colon on 3-days rest trying to close out the Sox ... Red Sox won 22-8 to set up Pedro's heroics the next night in Cleveland. And it all came together by accident.

$20 sounds like a steal - especially considering how captive the driving audience is.

Did the Dodgers fans have pink hats?

Not much than what has been written - that his stuff is raw, but he made progress after the deal last season. Probably not a 2015 guy in any form (contrast that with Owens). I would not deal him for the most part. Here is my view of the latter three prospects. Say you had a chance to get Josh Beckett again, knowing what you knew at the time (which is all you can rate a move on). 25 year old, former World Series MVP, #1 caliber stuff. And he was available for prospects. The latter prospects are guys the Marlins would have asked for, and those would be guys that I'd be willing to talk about because of the level of dude coming back. And I'd know there is a solid chance the kids blossom elsewhere and it'd break my heart - but opportunities like this do not happen every day and you have to take that seriously. (and fwiw while Josh Beckett generally underachieved relative to the expectations and prospect price - I have no issues with the deal and that 2007 flag of course is still pretty sweet) That is the threshhold I'd be looking at. I know I've posted here that Devers - granted with the sort of super wide range of outcomes that is part of just turning 18 - is the guy in the system with future MVP upside.

True - but that's what the scouting and development is for. I am not sentimental. My untouchable list is very short - Swihart, Owens, Rodriguez, Margot, Devers ... and the latter three are sufficiently far away from the bigs (although Rodriguez in particular can address that this season) that I wouldn't hang up the phone right away.

True. That said, Texas is very much on the same sort of knife's edge Detroit is, even moreso. They still have a lot of a team on paper that can contend. But they are also very much a team that could go the other way - the first couple of months will be particularly big for them. To me there are maybe 6 teams who already know 2015 ain't for them. (Houston, Colorado, Minnesota, Arizona, Atlanta, Milwaukee) And I am sure a couple of those can lie to themselves for a bit. We have to be patient with how the teams themselves evolve. There are fewer financial reasons to move guys than ever - so we'll have to settle for the baseball ones.

In many cases I think, it is about "when do the contractual questions trump the baseball ones". The tough thing with the Hamels negotiations is that question is somewhat murky. In a case like Cueto or Gallardo, it's a lot more straightforward.

Cherington has said nothing about it. I have no doubt he has explored talks about the sorts of pitchers who represent improvements. But to acknowledge it publicly would be stupid. Also, the industry knows how the Red Sox really feel about their staff - it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out if the Red Sox will be looking to add pitching in June. Management after the winter meetings - correctly IMO - decided to get off of other people's timelines for dealing with the pitching staff. The power to stand pat is the strongest trade chip the Sox have (think of the adage about negotiating for a car or house). Management has decided to credibly establish that power - which they have to do in order to make the deals on terms they can accept.

SB is ever thus - the conference title games I have heard are really the best fan day in the sport.