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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. I linked to the story of a semi-famous team which was built on average starting pitching - to have a team where a strong area picks up a less strong one is not poor team building (in fact, that's what a team is) ... that just has not happened
  2. Sandoval should be better, but the burden is on him ... right now he has been below replacement level. But a lineup with Hanley at 3B and Brock and whomever on the OF corners would make sense too and perhaps given the org more future flexibility.
  3. It was risky to be sure. At the same time, the tools are there - the question is how quickly could he shake the rust off. The fact is that the annual investment they made is pretty modest for a starting caliber OF. Obvious the latter has to come to fruition. Also - that contract is legitimately tradeable. Now somebody has to see Castillo as a legit big league outfielder for that to happen - but if that is the case, $12M/yr for a quality starting CF is very reasonable.
  4. It's not even that - although he and Ramirez are the main culprits for nearly all of the Red Sox leaking in terms of DRS. It's just the Sox roster making more sense without him.
  5. He's a guy who has not faced many guys who were trying to get him out the last few years. Plenty of time to adjudicate this.
  6. Lots of teams had job openings at P. Shields had to go to SD. Realistically he is a fly ball pitcher who has only pitched in places where fly balls go to die. He would have offered durability - which is not nothing.
  7. If nothing else just give Holt an everyday position without doing the Tony Phillips routine. Ramirez probably would be better at 3B too, who knows.
  8. Miley has been a case of a couple of horrific starts making hash of a bunch of solid ones. I'm actually not that bummed out by him. Management needs to bang the gong on Kelly and look into Johnson.
  9. Buchholz has pitched better than Shields so far. Shields has done what he has always done, been durable in a very favorable pitching environment.
  10. An obscure baseball team which was built on a bunch of meh performing starters: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/1976.shtml
  11. What is interesting about Buehrle is that his WAR is wrapped up primarily in his durability. His best seasons he was hanging 240 IP a season, which is immensely valuable - but also very different from how baseball teams operate now. I am not sure if it is a great apples to apples comparison. That said, Buehrle is a solid comp for Porcello for two guys who have often outperformed their FIP fundamentals.
  12. I still think Boston should look to deal Sandoval back to the Giants - Giants could use him, and the Sox' org muscle is at 3B.
  13. Except that (on paper - duh) was not really true. A rotation with Joe Kelly (a swing guy granted, but a live arm) and a few mid-rotation types backed by a pretty good bullpen does not terrible make. And frankly the run prevention has not really been a serious issue since May basically.
  14. Without a doubt. Margot is in Portland before he can drink. That is a terrific story. He at this point looks to have at worst a very high floor.
  15. I am always in both directions here - fans pay too much money to blow it up willy nilly - especially since a lot of these failures seem very fixable. But yeah if this week does not go well, the reasons to chase are just not there. I'd be willing to deal Sandoval regardless - the hot corner is where Boston's org strength is.
  16. I would not read too much into that - after all Nieves walked the plank, which could be read as an equivalent gesture.
  17. I think management was targeting above .500, which was reasonable. The best offense in the AL combined with a middle of the road run prevention would have gotten you there. They have failed on both counts (and clearly the run prevention includes both pitching and defense) On the bright side, the team has started to find some things that will work. Betts, Pedroia and Holt make a solid set of tablesetters, and that is as big a driver for offensive consistency as anything.
  18. I am not sure it is the strikeouts - but something has clearly happened to the ground ball rate - that is the entirety of his failings this season, leaving the ball up. That could be a matter of pitch selection, release point. The durability has not been an issue, it has just been leaving the ball up much too often.
  19. If they get dealt, I can guarantee you it wasn't because of Cherington.
  20. Moncada's 19 - early to tell. Really Guerra and Devers stories are the ones to watch, the latter particularly.
  21. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4037
  22. honestly, if he were giving 180+ IP per year at a 3.7 or so ERA it would have been plenty fair. Not a wholesale price, but fair. Porcello is not getting groundballs at the rate he was earlier in his career - that's it. Indeed the left side of the defense has been an unforeseen problem which has mangled much of the run prevention concept.
  23. No - Porcello had come off of three years with over 175 IP, and FIPs trending correctly. He was only 26, had shown legitimate improvement and real durability. You look at one comp - Homer Bailey got 6 years 105 million while being 2 years older and less of a track record of pitching innings. James Shields signed for a similar figure (slightly less but whatever) and he was going into his decline and had never pitched in a hitters environment. I hear the "mm mmm mm 20 million mmm mmm" like the 20M is sacrosanct. 20M a year in the 2016 FA market WILL NOT BUY YOU A #2 starter. It will buy you a guy who looks a hell of a lot like Rick Porcello - and probably without any sort of upside projection.
  24. It is baffling - because 22-28 year olds tend to IMPROVE because that's what learning is. To look at the sample size here and just say "yep, he is what he is" makes as much sense as doing that about his high school numbers. The idea was because he was improving over his tour in Detroit, and that he is just 26, and that he was leaving a horrible defense, that he would be more productive. Miley has been a little less baffling although given his 3.8 ERA in a launching pad in the NL, you'd have expected his numbers to go up in the AL but not to the degree. Kelly has been inconsistent and Buchholz has largely been solid.
  25. He needs to stick with the ponies ...
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