sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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I think a lot of it is players being healthier and playing better. Seriously, this team had issues with both - and won 93 games! And note - Benintendi, Betts, Bradley did not actually have bad years ... they had years which were right in the middle of the bell curve of outcomes for them. But most good seasons you expect a player or two to be near the upper end of outcomes - best versions of themselves. Aside from Moreland frankly - that did not happen with our position players. And we won anyway.
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32 years old with zero history of that level of production before - big time fluke rule candidate
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They lose their 2nd best pick ... possibly 2nd and 5th ... it has to do with luxury tax payers (on the "signing free agent side") and revenue sharing beneficiaries (on the "losing FA side")
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5 days after the world series is deadline to offer QOs to free agents FAs have 10 days to accept/decline Sixth day after the world series FAs can start to sign The QO twist will be interesting this year with the new CBA kicking in. Guys who have been tendered a QO in the past cannot be tendered again (this primarily impacts Justin Upton). Compensation and penalties for signing guys who rejected QOs are tied to payroll and significantly less than the old days.
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IT GOT THEM A CHANCE TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES. It was a chance that did not get cashed in - but you can't win without being in. Since I've been a fan an 83 win team and an 85 win team won the World Series while a 116 win team didn't - the best team in the league has won the whole thing pretty darn rarely. The Red Sox did not advance in the postseason because they did not win the games - and if the manager did not get a little greedy with Sale, they very well force a Game 5. It's not some grand statement about their season or their success. It is so hard to make the postseason that just dismissing it like qualifying for the NHL Playoffs is daft.
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If you sign JD - or trade for Stanton ... THAT IS THE CONCERN ... there is a significant, troubling injury history with both ... that doesn't mean you don't do it. But there are real medical concerns which you need to be comfortable with.
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I suspect the industry take is that last year was injury related and they will try to swindle the Sox.
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Of course, he didn't ... and he didn't in every season except for 2015. So that is interesting. He qualifies as an outfielder - but a very bad one. I think he will get 5 years - and if the Sox did it, I could live with it.
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Five is okay but 3-4 is better. I am also curious how the market will be for pure sluggers. Will there be a squeeze like Encarnacion faced.
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Seriously - the Red Sox won 93 games facing a pretty substantial amount of adversity. This was not a year where our projected starting 5 went out and made 130 starts ... this was not a year where we had pristine health. I know the narrative is cute to say that Ortiz left this team flailing in the sea. But the team won 2 less games, with much more adversity - and they won one more playoff game! Yeah they were crappy to Eck - but that does not speak to the product on the field.
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The Red Sox were the crappiest 93 win team in baseball history. The Yankees were the finest 91 win team ever.
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Votto is probably the best pure hitter in the league - combining power, production and being able to take good at bats
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6 Inning Starts + 6 Man Roration = Fewer Arm Problems
sk7326 replied to bosoxmal's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think - essentially - pitching is more physically demanding than it was in the olden days ... (and of course that we know more about injuries - and everything else - generally newswise) -
6 Inning Starts + 6 Man Roration = Fewer Arm Problems
sk7326 replied to bosoxmal's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Almost certainly not true ... and besides, the average velocity from then to now is no comparison. -
There was basically no evidence that there was a 2-win player inside there at his age and recent results, let alone a 6-win player. But hey - I'll take it!
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Stanton - though his past durability issues give serious pause. While Votto PROBABLY will be a useful hitter for another 3 seasons (and maybe more due to his approach) that is hard to swallow.
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That is certainly possible - this is an upside play ... it is the one thing that gets lost with dealing Bradley is certainty. At the same time, a core of under 25 guys comes with some of that uncertainty. Benintendi certainly has the chance to be a better total package than Bradley. But the guy to deal if you are moving somebody to improve the big league club, it's Bradley. A little older - valuable but probably without a ton more to go.
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And to be fair, Napoli was a sensible pickup. Victorino was kind of a lousy idea ... which worked out a billion times better than anybody had the right to expect. Yeah he only gave 1 good year of a 3 year contract, but what a year it was!
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BTW: nothing signals positivity to free agents like actively trying to prevent somebody from vesting his option.
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Benintendi has to be better, but athletically he should be able to handle either at least at an above average level. Of course Betts is one of the fielders who could actually improve on Bradley at CF.
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Because Cashman got better deals ... he got homeruns for Chapman and Miller. (it still made sense for the Cubs to make the deal, flags flying forever and such) The Beckett/Crawford deal was actually fairly good for a salary dump ... neither De La Rosa nor Webster worked out ... but given the value of the assets at the time, that was a better return for a fire sale than you'd expect. The one undisputed homerun Cherington had in the selloffs was getting Eduardo Rodriguez for 2 months of Andrew Miller.
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Actually the Yankees did the same thing the Sox did to a degree. The difference is that the Yankees were in a position to sell off veterans - which the Red Sox under Dombrowski largely have not been able to. They've been too busy contending to be able to make Chapman and Miller deals (homeruns for Cashman on both). Cherington and the prior management were the ones who insisted on taking back major league players for Lester and Lackey - and thus not getting nearly enough back for deadline sales. I am all about not selling the farm - but you have to be fair here. Dombrowski identified the prospects he saw star potential with ... Benintendi and Devers ... and dealt the rest with the understanding that a team like Boston can buy worker bees. The only thing I am critical of ultimately is selling off blue chip minor league pitching - but EVEN THEN, pitcher health is so volatile that from a sheer risk management perspective I understand being more willing to deal arms than bats.
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Really the question when trading for Ozuna is whether Benintendi can be a good defensive CENTER or RIGHT FIELDER. Betts will be near league best wherever he plays ... Benintendi at least profiles as plus at Center Field. (his performance in left was not great - although there is a long history of Red Sox left fielders scoring poorly UZR-wise ... I do think Fenway's left field creates a problem for the measure) The total impact on the outfield might actually end up being small. The idea of dealing JBJ is simply because the Red Sox could actually improve CF internally.
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6 Inning Starts + 6 Man Roration = Fewer Arm Problems
sk7326 replied to bosoxmal's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
A highly recommended read about this is Jeff Passan's THE ARM. The short version - considering how valuable pitchers are to winning, the industry collectively knows almost nothing about optimizing performance and preservation. -
6 Inning Starts + 6 Man Roration = Fewer Arm Problems
sk7326 replied to bosoxmal's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Pitchers throw a lot harder than in the olden days - some of that is evolutionary ... but I think some of it is industry thinking. Put another way, do you really need Old Hoss Radbourn when 3 pitchers can do the same job better?