FredLynn
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Everything posted by FredLynn
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So there is the diagnosis: a "strain". Is this the kind of strain that lasts a couple of weeks-or is it the kind that lasts 3-4 months? Hope Jacko is satisfied now that everything is cleared up.
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While the diagnosis is of some interest here, its really not all that important given the circumstances-assuming we are not being given fake news by the Red Sox. What if the diagnosis was a strain or a sprain-but it takes four months to heal and recurs later on? Assuming what we have been told is correct its not likely a tear of the UCL. What if its a bone spur and they are going to see how it responds to conservative treatment, and it does great? Or if it requires surgery later on? My point is that while the specific diagnosis is of some interest here, its really not all that important. What IS important is how long it takes for Price to return to being Price, regardless of the diagnosis.
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Who cares? If what Farrell said is true I could not care less what the diagnosis is. However....the Red Sox are generally not particularly forthcoming or honest (or competent) in dealing with these things. Whatever they are calling it, I want to see him pitch effectively before I believe he is over this.
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Even if Price can pitch this year we will still need a decent 7th SP. Elias might do, but Johnson and Owens are simply not good enough. Workman, in his small level of experience, has an ERA of about 5, which isn't too bad for a #7. At least he has had some success, unlike Owens. True, he hasn't pitched since 2014 in the majors, but I would like to give him a shot at #7 (or 6 if Price can't pitch) before any of the other candidates. We will still need one more IMO; I agree with Harmony.
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I sincerely hope you are right about Sandoval, but note that his OPS+ has gone down every year since 2011. In 2015 he was down to 75 for an OPS+. From my point of view there is little reason to expect that he will improve much. And Moreland at 1B? He is, in effect, replacing Ortiz. We shall see.......
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I stole the following post from a different forum. Its not that Swihart is Babe Ruth, but given David Ortiz and his 127 RBIs and other contributions on offense is gone, we need to play guys who can hit the baseball: "Christian Vasquez in 557 PAs has a career OPS+ of 62 with a BA of .233 with an OPS of .602. Sandy Leon in 548 PAs has a career OPS+ of 81 with a BA of .254 with an OPS of .681-and these numbers are skewed by a brief flash in the pan last year. None of these guys is David Ortiz, but Swihart is, offensively, the best of the lot. And with Sandoval and Moreland in the lineup, we need all the offense we can get."
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I don't think we will have the mashers to win many games by 5+ runs. Our pitching is likely to keep us in games and give us a chance to win games by 4-2 and 5-3 scores. At least thats the plan.
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What will be the 2017 greatest weakness for the Sox?
FredLynn replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
That all depends on how many starts we need from our #7-8 SPers. If our top six can stay healthy we will do just fine. -
Definitely not a troll. I agree that he is consistent. I do not recall a single projection on his part that supports the Red Sox being a strong favorite in any arena, so yes, he is consistent. You have to remember where he is coming from. He is a fan of a franchise that has never made it to the WS in its 40 years in existence, writing on a Red Sox forum about a team that won the WS just four years ago. A bit of envy, I think.
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What will be the 2017 greatest weakness for the Sox?
FredLynn replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The most suspect depth area is SP after our #6. On the other hand, I do not think that many teams have serviceable #7 and 8 SP. They will be needed eventually. I just hope its not Owens and Johnson that we need to rely on. -
He isn't underestimating, he is engaging in wishful thinking: thinking that somehow the Mariners will be like the Red Sox one day. Sort of like putting someone down to elevate yourself. Sure we lost a lot of offensive production when we lost Papi, but essentially we replaced Buchholz with Sale. How many more wins is that alone going to produce? And while its possible that Price won't have a better year, odds are he will. Add in Thornburg and Smith to replace Uehara (ERA: 3.45 v 2.15 for Thornburg, similar WHIP) and Tazawa (4.17/1.228 v 2.31/1.014) and our pen is also much improved. Harmony will continue to point out why the Red Sox will not succeed-until they do.
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Our RP was 5th in ERA in the AL last year. I would not call our pen a "weak point"; not if they are in the upper third in ERA. Maybe not as strong as other areas perhaps, but not weak. While you might argue that other measures are more important, ERA and ERA+ remains up there. While Koji did well after he returned, Tazawa did not have a good year, and Ziegler was only with us for a few months anyway. The addition of Thornburg and the return of Smith should make our pen stronger IMO than it was last year, at least on paper. But as everyone here knows, relief pitchers are a crapshoot.
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Unless I am missing something the base salary our players are due so far is $165,506,400 and change+$14M in benefits=$179,500,000, roughly, If the LT is $195M we are still about $15.5M below the LT threshold. Thats a lot, and more than enough to get Joey Batts if thats who they want.
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You answered a different question that the one that was asked. I agree with you that the odds of him hitting close to his average in the next 100 PAs is the best guess, but for a single AB, for a player in an 0 for 20 hole, I think its far less. That player is not going well, for whatever reason. Maybe his mechanics are screwed up. He certainly would lack his usual confidence. I don't know that the chances of him getting a hit are, but I would not bet its .333.
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"It doesn't appear to be anything serious. He is expected back after the all star break"
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Thats pretty much what we got. A bag of rocks. Buchholz was worth more than that. Bad trade.
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He is only squatting 185. Real men squat two plates, 225.....
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I thought he played 1B...am I mistaken? Furthermore, will he even be ready at the beginning of the season? He had a horrific injury.
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What's the backup plan for 3B if Sandoval is unproductive? Holt is not the answer. I hope DD has a backup plan. As of right now, I don't see any alternatives, and there should be.
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SSS, but in his last five games Buchholz had an ERA as a SP of 3.14. He is capable of doing that. I would not rule him out of being in the starting rotation when the season starts. Pom, Wright, and Buchholz should compete for the final opening day SP slot. It should not be handed to one of those guys.
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Starting pitching, in particular. I haven't looked at other teams because my comments were mostly in reference to the acquisition of Sale for guys who are prospects. Maybe in comparison to other teams we have done OK; maybe not. It would take more time than I am willing to dedicate to it to find out. But when you look at a proven ace being traded for prospects who may or may not pan out (and as I have said, most of our prospects have not worked out, including some very highly rated ones) this has better than even odds of being a steal IMO. Not sure if I posted the link to Wilbur's article from today's Boston.com here yet, but here it is: http://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2016/12/07/dombrowski-didnt-pay-too-much-sale.
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Many of the guys on your list were either very marginal players or likely busts. Just to name a few, Webster, Owens, Shaw, Cecchini, Vasquez (is it too soon to call him a bust?)....Johnson etc etc Our whiff rate is pretty high. It remains to be seen about many many others, including Kopech and Moncada. Based on our track record, as Wilbur pointed out in his article today, its hard to have a lot of confidence in our ability to assess talent.
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Yeah, but they are called "prospects" for a reason. They have yet to prove anything. I admit its possible that either or both of them will contribute in a major way to the WS rebuilding efforts. Like you said, we got a proven ace for cheap money and gave up no ML players to do it. Tell me the last time that happened in a trade.
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I am not saying that our GMs NEVER made good decisions. There were many: Bogaerts, Betts...and yes, Rizzo. But they whiffed on many as well. Some of our top prospects simply didn't pan out, despite the hype. I remember I couldn't wait to see Ranaudo pitch for us. He had a 9.48 ERA in 9 games for the Rangers and WS. Too many of our top prospects ended up sucking. If Moncada and/or Kopech end up in that boat, then we essentially stole Sale. Time will tell.
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I had reservations about this initially. But I am coming around to the wisdom of it. There was an article by Wilbur today reminding everyone of how badly overhyped several of our recent "can't miss" prospects were: Casey Kelly, Anthony Ranaudo, Henry Owens, Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, Will Middlebrooks, and to a lesser extent, Daniel Bard. Maybe Moncada and Kopech will become stars at the ML level; maybe not. Meanwhile Sale cost us no ML players and we still have a semblance of a farm system.