FredLynn

Gonzales again....f***.

He pitched one good inning. Thats what I read anyway.

I was responding to your claim that Beckett is one of the best postseason pitchers ever. While that was true five years ago, this is a different pitcher now. Older. Less consistent. All the postseason numbers are small sample sizes but the fact remains that he has not produced in five years.

Is that because you SAY its not debatable? Of course it is. A crapshoot implies that the outcome is fairly unpredictable. While its not totally predictable, there will be team that is favored and one that is not. Its not even odds at all. We WILL be the underdog in any one game playoff we play, and there is a very good chance it will be on the road. Betting on our chances there would be a fool's bet.

Excellent assessment. Sound logic.

Of course we could win that game. All I am saying is that its most likely going to be a road game against either the Rangers or the Angels, and I don't like our chances given that scenario.

Lackey was useless long before TJ. So was DiceK. Jenks was never useful at all. And as I keep saying, and you keep avoiding, injuries to our position players have failed to keep us from scoring lots of runs. We are second in the AL in runs scored. Sure we would have scored more with Ellsbury and (maybe) Crawford in there, but their replacements have generally overperformed anyway. Our problem is pitching. Here is Mazz's article, which I happen to agree with: Fact: Of the Red Sox' 80 games to date, 69 have been started by Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront, their season-opening five-man rotation. Until Beckett and then Buchholz went on the disabled list late last month, not a single one of them had missed more than a start to injury. Further, the Red Sox are 6-5 in games started by Daisuke Matsuzaka, Aaron Cook and Franklin Morales, the last of whom currently looks like a potential discovery. In games started by Lester and Beckett this season - the alleged aces of the staff - the Red Sox are 14-17. At a time when pitchers are reclaiming the game, neither has an ERA under 4.00. Boston's two best starters (in theory) rank 21st (Beckett) and 31st (Lester) among the qualifying 44 AL starters in ERA, which simply is not good enough. And so, when someone like Saltalamacchia refers to "pitching injuries" as he did to the Globe's Nick Cafardo on Monday, he's twisting the facts. Even minus any real contribution from Andrew Bailey or Mark Melancon, Red Sox relievers rank fifth in the AL in ERA (3.10), and they could be as high as second (Oakland, 3.00) by the end of the night. Injuries have not been the real problem on the pitching staff. Execution has.

Yeah, thats Ellsbury's ball. So he calls for it and if Beltre doesn't back off he has to know that Beltre weighs about 100 lbs more than he does. The right move if Beltre keeps coming is to avoid the collision and let the foul ball fall. After Buster Posey got his ankle smashed blocking home plate last he was ordered not to do that again. Let the run score. He is too valuable to risk that kind of injury again. Similarly with Ellsbury, he has to learn to avoid collisions like that whenever possible.

Running into another player because you weren't paying attention was not his fault. Right. Couldn't have been avoided. I will have to try that one on my car insurance carrier next time I nail a tree.

How do we rank if you remove players who are better off on the DL like Lackey, Matsusaka, Jenks, McDonald and the like? Its not the number of players on the DL, its who the players are. Even though Ellsbury and Crawford have been on the DL all year we have still scored plenty of runs with guys like Nava overperforming. The only significant pitcher on the DL is Bailey. Our pitching still stinks. That is the essence of our problems: poor pitching, especially the lack of a true ace. And that hasn't been addressed in three years. Until it gets addressed effectively we will see THIS kind of team out on the field year after year. Injuries have little to do with it.

I am pretty close to doing just that.

Better technique might have avoided that injury, yes. And running into Beltre was not particularly smart either.

Sure. Its possible. If he were pitching in Anaheim or in Texas against any of those pitchers with a better ERA (and especially against the Rangers' lineup) and you had to put your money on the team you thought would win that game, where would your money be? Odds are heavily in favor of us losing that game. Very very heavily.

Matt Harrison ERA: 3.16 Colby Lewis ERA: 3.51 Yu Darvish ERA: 3.59 Jered Weaver ERA: 2.13 Justin Verlander ERA: 2.69 Jon Lester ERA: 4.53 Josh Beckett ERA: 4.06 No, nothing is a guarantee. But in a one game road playoff game against any of these pitchers and their teams, my money would not be on the Red Sox.

I think this is from Cafardo's column. There is no evidence that the Mariners are shopping Hernandez. Even if they were, Lester/Ellsbury would not be enough for them to part with The King.