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rjortiz

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Everything posted by rjortiz

  1. Humans are not designed to throw hundreds of pitches. They are especially not designed to throw curveballs, sliders, or other breaking balls. Pitching is inherently a dangerous activity, so there will always be more pitchers who go under the knife. Ultimately, I think they are able to recognize the symptoms of an arm injury before irreversible damage is done to it. The average age of pitchers in the past was much shorter than they are today.
  2. I'm pretty sure a torn ligament in the elbow hurts regardless of how many hours you watch videos.
  3. Giving Boone Logan 3/16.5 is stupid regardless of payroll. If Thronton doesn't work out, the cost of a situational lefty in the trade market is pretty low.
  4. I think it's too marginal to worry about. Thorton has appeared in 6.2 innings compared to 332 innings the entire staff has appeared in. Granted, he will appear in inning with higher leverage, but you need the other 323.1 innings filled with competent players to even reach that point. I agree that good lefties can help, but they are complementary pieces to teams with good foundations. The Yankees foundation is Ellsbury, McCann, Gardner, Tanaka, a Daniel Nava impersonator, and the AARP wing of MLB. Not good.
  5. Only Betances, and if he's striking out batters at this rate it doesn't matter. A healthy Yankee bullpen has five decent relievers. Signing a good sixth or seventh option doesn't move the needle very much. The biggest problem for the Yankees is the progeria outbreak that claimed two starters and four position players. McCann can be cured, but I'm skeptical about the others. Regardless, it is starting to look more obvious with every passing day. This was a desperate attempt to field a winner.
  6. Consumer data. I'll look for the articles, but I remember reading in an analysis of ESPN's revenues that only around 10% of people who pay a programming fee for ESPN actually watch the network. In another article about cable bills, the percentage of people that would cut sports out of their programming if given the choice was over 50%. I think it is safe to predict that when the average cable bill crosses into triple digits (if it hasn't already) that the percentage will increase. The polls mentioned ESPN and sports as the key word, so I wonder what responses CSN Houston, or Tennis Channel would get. The model is sustainable if they can keep both TV programming fees high, keep who pays them at 100%, and keep their current consumer base. Not increase, but just to sustain their current earnings. Here's the ESPN figure: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/53498716#!M5B7a Took awhile to sift through the mountains of delusional cultists touting the ESPN model for building a TV network. I am actually not surprised that Cameron made that conclusion. Most economics courses teach us about market rationality, so most people never even think to check the foundations it is build on.
  7. Of the top seven relievers used by the Yankees in 2014, the highest ERA is 3.86. The problem has been the sorry performances by relievers 8-15. Those relievers get minor league deals, or are fringe prospects. I find it hard to find fault with Cashman here.
  8. Dave Cameron wrote an article on the state of baseball's economy for The HBT: http://www.hardballtimes.com/10-things-i-learned-about-the-baseball-economy/ I wonder what he would be saying if he was an economist for a Wall Street firm in 2005. This has been discussed in other threads, but it should be obvious to everyone that MLB is experiencing a bubble. Their finances are private, so it is impossible to say how inflated it is. We know that the TV market is the main driver, and the foundation of all regional sports networks are carriage fees charged to all their consumers. This is an oversimplification, but the poorest cable consumers have some similarities to the subprime market in mortgages during the housing bubble. Monthly cable costs are at record levels, and analysts project costs to continue rising. A large percentage of cable consumers will be priced out, and will seek cheaper alternatives. Cable companies are slow to react to everything, but they will either start offering a la carte programming, or cater to their richest consumers, therefore making cable a luxury item. The first scenario is more likely, but both of them will pop the MLB TV bubble. As mentioned before, sports networks, including ESPN, make their majority of their revenue by the ability to charge all cable consumers a carriage fee. In the a la carte scenario, most regional sports networks will go bankrupt. The CSN Houston bankruptcy is the most likely course for the smaller and middle market teams. They will take huge losses in their equity stakes, and lose out on the hundreds of millions in broadcasting rights. The new TV deals they sign will be for significantly less. This will also happen to the richer MLB teams, but in a less dramatic fashion. They should be able to survive, but with a much reduced revenue stream. The national TV deals will also be much less lucrative. Most TV viewers just don't like sports. Cameron has even alluded to this scenario on multiple occasions, which is why I am completely perplexed how one can conclude that it is "remarkably healthy." It is literally one of the most bizarre connection between a premise and a conclusion I've ever seen. The whole foundation is built on an unsustainable source, and when it breaks it will reveal how "remarkably healthy" MLB economy is. There is also signs that the last great MLB bubble (new stadiums) might blow up at the same time. I would have to look into this deeper, but the Yankees and Cubs are heavily involved in securitizing their debts. I'm pretty sure the Dodgers, Mets, and Rangers are playing the derivatives market as well. If anything has the chance to blow up as spectacularly as the 2008 financial crisis it would be this one.
  9. Sizemore is almost as bad as Nava in CF, and he hasn't hit that well.
  10. Nava would be an absolute disaster in CF.
  11. Falcons? Matthews was best available by far.
  12. http://espn.go.com/minor-league-baseball/story/_/id/10900007/seattle-mariners-class-affiliate-finishes-16-run-comeback Wow.
  13. The Yankees lineup looks so terrible on paper.
  14. What was Texas thinking trading for six more years of Prince Fielder? They'll be paying $40 million for two DH's before Choo and Fielder's contracts expire.
  15. I think that is Papelbon for the demons of the whine.
  16. Why not draft all Rockies batters for fantasy? Lowest batting average in their lineup is .288.
  17. I always pictured iortiz and a700hitter singing "Pap Highway" to the tune of Gordon Lightfoot's song. They probably changed "slip away on" to "slip away in", though.
  18. I'm listening to every bottom of the 3rd on mute from now on.
  19. Good problem to have, isn't it? I wonder if we had the Yankees farm system, would we be touting Brock Holt as star in the making 3B like Jacko did with Solarte? Personally, I'd use Betts as the centerpiece for an impact player. Cecchini should keep taking grounders at 3B for the inevitable Middlebrooks faceplant.
  20. Betts with another HR. Top 20 prospect in MLB. Our farm system is still the envy of the world even with the graduation of Bogaerts and Bradley.
  21. Hahaha, this isn't based on any hard evidence, but it seems like wild swings lead to catchers tossing the ball into the CF. I don't remember who it was, but earlier this year someone swung at a pitchout, and sure enough it went into CF. Probably from sheer disbelief at the swing.
  22. He's better than his 2012 season. I just don't think .260/.300/.320 the rest of season is going to hold off Alex Guerrero for long.
  23. I'd sell high on Gordon.
  24. I thought it was a joke? I saw it once tuned to the "Chicken Dance." I turned off my laptop immediately.
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