Orange Juiced

At this point I actually wouldn't worry so much about Napoli's hip (which, for three games, probably won't be impacted much by playing 3b instead of 1b), but rather whether he can actually play the position. Moreover, I *want* Bogaerts in there - he's looked very good, and even on many of his outs he's hitting the ball hard. I wish Napoli could catch, because this would be a good spot to put him behind the plate to keep his bat in the lineup. But alas, it's not meant to be. It just means that they have a serious weapon to bring in off the bench. There are worse things than that. By the way, here are all the Red Sox offensive outputs in NL parks this season, and the starting pitcher they faced: 5/29 at Phi (Kendrick) - 3 runs 5/30 at Phi (Pettibone) - 9 runs 8/19 at SF (Lincecum) - 7 runs 8/20 at SF (Vogelsong) - 2 runs 8/21 at SF (Zito) - 12 runs 8/23 at LAD (Nolasco) - 0 runs 8/24 at LAD (Ryu) - 4 runs 8/25 at LAD (Capuano) - 8 runs That's 8 games in NL parks, and they averaged 5.6 runs. Granted, the quality of pitching they faced wasn't exactly off the charts great, but nonetheless, 5.6 runs isn't bad at all. Figure you take away even a run and a half off that figure due to the quality of pitching they faced, and we're still talking about 4.1 runs a game. So if the Sox can score 4 tonight and tomorrow, I actually like their chances.

The Cardinals were 43-38 on the road this year. That was the 6th best road record in all of MLB this year. So, in fact, they were an excellent road team this year. That said, I'm sure they are fine with splitting at Fenway. I think they (the Cards) *NEED* to win 2 of 3 in St. Louis over the weekend, or they're dead, because I don't see them taking 2 of 2 back in Fenway. Now, how are they going to get 2 of 3? In some ways, it's pretty reasonable to see the formula: Hope Peavy is the bad Peavy (a very real chance of that) in game 3, figure a good chance of losing game 4, but assuming Wainwright is his usual self in game 5. Take your chances with Wacha in game 6. But in other ways, it seems like it's not going to be quite that easy. Boston dominated game 1 and really should have won game 2 as well (oh well, that's baseball). But Wainwright and Wacha were outpitched by Lester and Lackey, which gives the Sox confidence down the road. So you're banking on Kelly and Lynn to take care of business. And maybe they can do that. But I still think the Sox are in very good shape here. Gonna be a great series.

The "funky band box" had zip to do with the Cards' defensive miscues. Kozma simply dropped a toss from 2b and had a routine ground ball deflect off his glove. Freese simply made a terrible throw. And even though it wasn't an error, the Wainwright/Molina pop drop was something you don't normally see even in Little League. There were no weird bounces off walls that screwed them up. And the umps eventually got the call right. Can't blame them or feel cheated because they huddled and reversed what was an obvious error by the 2b ump.

The Cardinals have a much deeper bullpen filled with quality guys than the Sox do. But the Sox' last 3 - Taz, Breslow, and Uehara - are terrific. The key for Boston is that their starters get deep enough into games that the Cardinals' bullpen depth advantage is nullified. What the Cards can do, though, is do a lot of lefty/lefty and righty/righty matchups late in games because they have so many quality arms.

Isn't pretty much everything that gets said here "just someone's opinion"? Isn't that what groups like this are FOR?

Yeah, it's crazy that people might want to talk about the Red Sox being in the World Series. Put it this way: If you don't find them interesting, feel free to simply not participate. It's pretty simple. If nobody wants to participate, the threads will die a natural death.

Ok whatever.

Um, did you miss the part where I said this: "One key area of difference is at catcher. Molina is, as is usual for the Molinas, excellent behind the plate. Not only did he have just 3 passed balls for the season, he also threw out 43% of would-be base stealers (he’s at 45% for his entire career). His mere presence may neutralize Boston’s big advantage on the basepaths. And if he alone can prevent the Red Sox from taking 5 extra bases during the series, that may be enough to overcome their defensive disadvantages elsewhere. We should not underestimate what Molina brings to the table here."

I didn't say they "kicked theirs". No need to create a straw man. I just think that the Sox' offense outscored Detroit's, and against better pitching, so I think in the end, the Sox' offense did better than Detroit's (though obviously it was very close). I don't have a problem if you disagree.

Runs are runs.

Well, runs scored is the most important offensive stat of them all. And, yes, the Sox outscored Detroit. Moreover, they outscored Detroit against a much tougher rotation to face than what Detroit's offense did.

Defense Defensively, this is more competitive than the ALCS. The Tigers were far inferior to the Red Sox in the defensive department, and it showed up in the ALCS. But these Cardinals are a little better than the Tigers defensively. They ranked #1 in the NL in fielding percentage at .988. Here is their likely fielding lineup and their b-ref dWAR numbers: C – Y.Molina: +2.1 1b – Adams: -0.8 2b – Carpenter: +0.3 3b – Freese: -1.5 SS – Kozma: +1.3 LF – Holliday: -2.3 CF – Jay: -0.9 RF – Beltran: -1.5 TOTAL: -3.3 Meanwhile, here’s Boston’s likely fielding lineup and their b-ref dWAR numbers: C – Saltalmacchia: +0.3 1b – Napoli: +0.4 (Ortiz in NL parks would likely bring this down) 2b – Pedroia: +2.3 3b – Bogaerts: 0.0 SS – Drew: +0.6 LF – Gomes: -0.3 (Nava: -1.2) CF – Ellsbury: +1.9 RF – Victorino: +2.2 TOTAL: +7.4 (+6.5 if Nava is in LF) Still, one must say that the Red Sox hold a defensive advantage over the Cardinals. One key area of difference is at catcher. Molina is, as is usual for the Molinas, excellent behind the plate. Not only did he have just 3 passed balls for the season, he also threw out 43% of would-be base stealers (he’s at 45% for his entire career). His mere presence may neutralize Boston’s big advantage on the basepaths. And if he alone can prevent the Red Sox from taking 5 extra bases during the series, that may be enough to overcome their defensive disadvantages elsewhere. We should not underestimate what Molina brings to the table here. All told, I think 8 other players have to outweigh the one huge advantage St. Louis has at C, though that one advantage may end up being a difference-maker. I think the Cardinals’ deficiencies in the outfield with Holliday, Jay, and Beltran, especially in Fenway Park, could prove to be problematic for the Cardinals. SLIGHT EDGE: BOSTON Intangibles Like with the ALCS, there’s no way to know for sure how these will work. These are the two best teams in baseball, and they are very evenly matched. Both have excellent, grinding offenses. Both have solid starting rotations and good bullpens. Both are well-managed. And not that it matters for the World Series, but both have outstanding farm systems so both teams should be good for years to come. I think the Red Sox have a little magic going, but magic won’t help against the 100mph heat of Rosenthal. This series features two of the most electrifying postseason performers in baseball history in David Ortiz and Carlos Beltran, though this is Beltran’s first foray into the World Series. Each team still has players on it from their franchise’s most recent World Series championship, and each franchise has a tremendous championship pedigree. One key to me will be the relative impact of two players in particular. For the Cardinals, it’s Allen Craig. He’s a very good hitter but he’s returning from injury, with no real time to get up to speed. What will he provide the Cardinals at DH in Fenway? He probably won’t play the field in St. Louis, but he could provide a big lift for them in Boston. Meanwhile, for Boston, it’s Xander Bogaerts. He had virtually no impact on the team during the regular season, but he’s been amazing in the playoffs: 6 ab, 7 r, 3 h, 3 2b, 5 bb, .500/.727/1.000/1.727 His emergence not only improves the club tremendously over Middlebrooks, it deepens the bench considerably because now Middlebrooks and his terrific RH power can be brought in if they need an extra base hit late. And he gives the Sox a boost of energy. I think Xander could be the biggest key to the entire series, as he hopefully starts every game. It’s hard to give any intangible edge either way, but if I have to have one, I think it’s to the Sox. SLIGHT EDGE: BOSTON So in conclusion, I see the Sox as having the edge offensively (including baserunning) and defensively, and in the intangibles department. St. Louis has the edge in pitching – both starting pitching and in the bullpen. This should make for a great series. In the ALCS I feared a game 7 with Lackey going up against Verlander. This time, I think it would end up being Buchholz against Kelly, and that’s a matchup that I’m fine with. Prediction: Red Sox in 7.

It’s almost upon us, the 2013 World Series. And, friends, your Boston Red Sox are in it. Amazing, considering where we were just one year ago. This year has exceeded everyone’s wildest expectations, but hey, since we’re here, might as well win it all. That said, here’s my WS preview. Offenses As we know, the Red Sox scored the most runs during the regular season. They finished #1 in runs, #1 in ops, #1 in obp, #1 in slg. They also were 4th in baseball in stolen bases, and led in sb%. Ten of their regular rotation players had ops+ numbers of 111 or better, so there’s tremendous lineup depth. And adding Xander Bogaerts has made them even more dangerous. During the playoffs, however, the Sox’ offense has struggled. They averaged 5.3 runs per game during the regular season, but just 4.5 during the playoffs. That’s not surprising, considering these have been the pitchers they’ve faced: Price: 3.33 era, 1.10 whip, 7.3 k/9 Moore: 3.29 era, 1.30 whip, 8.6 k/9 Cobb: 2.76 era, 1.15 whip, 8.4 k/9 Hellickson: 5.17 era, 1.35 whip, 7.0 k/9 Scherzer (2x): 2.90 era, 0.97 whip, 10.1 k/9 Sanchez (2x): 2.57 era, 1.15 whip, 10.0 k/9 Verlander: 3.46 era, 1.31 whip, 9.0 k/9 Fister: 3.67era, 1.31 whip, 6.9 k/9 Other than Hellickson (who lasted just 1+ ip), this is a veritable all-star pitching rotation. They faced the 2012 Cy Young award winner (Price), the presumptive 2013 Cy Young award winner (Scherzer), a 2-time Cy Young award winner (Verlander), this year’s AL era champ (Sanchez), a guy who would have finished #7 in all of baseball in era if he had qualified (Cobb), and throw in Moore and Fister, and it’s understandable that the Red Sox would struggle to score runs. The combined regular season era of the starting pitching they have faced in the playoffs so far was 3.40. Long story shorter, it’s actually somewhat remarkable that the Sox have averaged 4.5 runs per game given the quality of the starting pitching they’ve faced. But the Cardinals are no slouches offensively. They led the NL in runs scored with 783, and ranked 3rd in obp, 13th in slg, and 10th in ops. Like Detroit, they present no real threat in the stolen base department, having swiped just 45 bases out of 67 attempts, for a 67% success rate (23rd in MLB). They have eight players with an ops+ number of 101 or higher, so they’re not as deep as Boston is in terms of quality. One of their key guys, Allen Craig, is returning from injury, so it remains to be seen how effective he will be. During the regular season, St. Louis averaged 4.8 runs per game, but in the playoffs, it’s dropped to 3.8. Like the Red Sox, they’ve faced some remarkably good starting pitching, including the likes of Kershaw, Grienke, Ryu, Cole, etc. But the quality of starting pitching they’ve faced isn’t as good as what Boston has faced, and they’ve scored, even relative to their regular season performance, fewer runs per game than the Sox have. A key advantage St. Louis may have is with the DH rules. When they play in Boston, the Red Sox will field their normal lineup. But the Cardinals get to add Allen Craig to boost theirs. But when they play in the NL park, the Cardinals play their usual lineup, while the Sox have to subtract either Ortiz or Napoli from the lineup. Moreover, the Cardinals’ pitchers are used to batting, so they may be able to lay down an extra sacrifice bunt or two more than Boston’s pitchers, and that might end up being the difference in a game. All told, the Red Sox have the better offense, despite the edge St. Louis has with the DH rules. EDGE: BOSTON Starting Pitching If we talked about the starting rotations of these two teams in spring training, our conversation would look totally different. The Sox had yet to know what John Lackey would do this year, they didn’t have Peavy, and we had no clue if Lester would rebound from his awful 2012 campaign. Meanwhile, St. Louis would have been counting on Jaime Garcia, and had no idea that Michael Wacha would emerge as he has. As currently constructed, here are the likely rotations for the World Series: Boston Lester (2.33 postseason, 3.75 regular season) Lackey (3.00 postseason, 3.52 regular season) Buchholz (5.40 postseason, 1.74 regular season) Peavy (8.31 postseason, 4.04 regular season) St. Louis Wainwright (1.57 postseason, 2.94 regular season) Wacha (0.43 postseason, 2.78 regular season) Kelly (4.41 postseason, 2.69 regular season) Lynn (5.40 postseason, 3.97 regular season) Wacha has been nearly unhittable during this postseason, and Wainwright is an absolute stud ace. Kelly and Lynn were terrific during the regular season and less so in the playoffs, but they are both quality pitchers. It will be interesting to see how the Cardinals’ pitchers do having to face a lineup with a DH. It’s a very different proposition having Napoli in the lineup instead of a pitcher. Conversely, it might be a bit easier for the Red Sox’ starters to face a pitcher instead of the DH they normally have to deal with. I am not totally comfortable with the Sox’ rotation at the moment, however. Peavy worries me, and Buchholz tires too easily to go deep into games. If he can give the Sox six excellent innings per start, maybe that’s all we can expect. On the whole, I think the Cardinals’ rotation is superior, but the gap isn’t as big as it was between Detroit and Boston. SLIGHT EDGE: ST. LOUIS Relief Pitching During the regular season, the Cardinals had the 12th best bullpen era in the majors, at 3.45. Boston’s was 21st, at 3.70. The Cardinals have some serious flamethrowers in the bullpen, featuring rookie closer Trevor Rosenthal (2.63 era, 12.9 k/9 during the regular season) and John Axford (9.6 k/9 during the season). They also have rookie starter Shelby Miller in the bullpen, and all he did this year was go 15-9 with a 3.06 era and 8.8 k/9. During the postseason, the Cardinals’ bullpen has been brilliant, posting a 1.80 era, and allowing opponents to hit just .177 off them. They can bring in two tough lefties in Randy Choate (2.29 era, 7.1 k/9) and Kevin Siegrist (0.45 era, 11.3 k/9) and they have depth all over the place. Meanwhile, the Red Sox’ bullpen has been even better, posting this line during the playoffs: 0.84 era, .209 baa, 7.9 k/9. Their back 3 of Breslow, Tazawa, and Uehara has been incredible, and Brandon Workman has added a fourth reliable option. It is the rest of the bullpen that could be troublesome, as they don’t have as much quality depth as St. Louis has. A potentially huge advantage the Sox have is at closer. Koji Uehara has been as good as a closer can possibly be, both in the regular season and playoffs. Just mind-boggling numbers, and he has carried that over in the playoffs. But Trevor Rosenthal has also been incredible (0.00 era, 0.71 whip, 11.6 k/9 in 7 ip). The key is that he’s just a rookie, and who knows how he’ll respond to the biggest stage possible. If we see any extra-inning games, the Cardinals have a deeper bullpen and can use a guy like Shelby Miller. The Sox’ bullpen isn’t as deep and the prospect of sending Ryan Dempster up against Shelby Miller is not one the Sox should look forward to. But if the starters do their job, I favor the Red Sox’ back end of the bullpen over St. Louis’. Nonetheless, I think a slight edge should go to the Cardinals, for the variety of weapons they can bring at you, and the emergence of Rosenthal at least makes the closer spot pretty close. SLIGHT EDGE: ST. LOUIS

I think both guys made big mistakes in this series, but I would guess that overall, Farrell out-managed Leyland. The single biggest impact move was inserting Bogaerts into the lineup, IMO.

Prince Fielder was, without question, the biggest goat of the ALCS for Detroit this year. Consider: - He was 4-22 (.182/.280/.227/.507), just one run scored and ZERO rbi. - He made a colossal baserunning blunder in game 6 that cost them dearly. - He dropped a crucial foul ball in game 2 that opened the door for the Red Sox to win. - Moments before, he should have come off the base to block an errant throw by Iglesias, but instead it got by him and Gomes went to 2nd (he would score on Salty's hit following Fielder's dropped foul popup). I mean, that's a whole lotta suck, especially for a guy making $23 million (and will be making $24 million a year through 2020!!).

Well, I got the Cardinals right, and the Red Sox wrong (Yay!!!!). So we have the Cards v. Sox in the WS. And, folks, this ain't your 2004 Cardinals. This team is much better, IMO, and will provide a much stiffer test than what we faced in '04.

Well, I'm happy (and actually somewhat surprised) that my pre-series analysis was pretty spot on. I thought the Tigers had a big edge in starting pitching, and they did. I thought the Sox had a big edge in the bullpen, and they did. I thought the Sox had an edge offensively, and they did. I thought the Sox had a slight intangible edge, and they did (though I was wrong about the managers - I guess Farrell had a better series than Leyland, though the decision to go with Morales in game 6 could have been a complete difference-maker in a negative way). I thought Boston had the edge in baserunning and defense, and they did. I also predicted Sox in 6 and that's what happened. I'll need a day to put together a World Series preview. I'm so pumped!!!!

This is putting the cart way before the horse, but the Cardinals are a tremendous baseball team. Every bit as good as Detroit.

In my series of "Sizing up the ALCS" threads, here was my analysis: Starting pitching: Edge - Detroit Relief pitching: Edge - Boston Offense: Edge - Boston Defense and Intangibles: Edge - Boston Here's what's transpired so far: Starting pitching Det: G1: 6.0 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 6 bb, 12 k G2: 7.0 ip, 2 h, 1 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 13 k G3: 8.0 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 10 k G4: 6.0 ip, 8 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 7 k G5: 6.0 ip, 9 h, 4 r, 3 er, 0 bb, 5 k TOTALS: 33.0 ip, 23 h, 7 r, 6 er, 10 bb, 47 k, 1.64 era, 1.00 whip, 12.8 k/9, 5 quality starts Bos G1: 6.1 ip, 6 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 4 k G2: 5.2 ip, 8 h, 5 r, 5 er, 0 bb, 6 k G3: 6.2 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 8 k G4: 3.0 ip, 5 h, 7 r, 7 er, 3 bb, 1 k G5: 5.1 ip, 7 h, 2 r, 2 er, 3 bb, 3 k TOTALS: 27.0 ip, 30 h, 15 r, 15 er, 7 bb, 22 k, 5.00 era, 1.37 whip, 7.3 k/9, 2 quality starts HUGE EDGE: DETROIT Relief Pitching Det G1: 3.0 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 5 k G2: 1.0 ip, 5 h, 5 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 2 k G3: 1.0 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 1 k G4: 3.0 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 3 k G5: 3.0 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 3 k TOTALS: 11.0 ip, 11 h, 7 r, 6 er, 3 bb, 14 k, 4.91 era, 1.27 whip, 11.5 k/9 Bos G1: 2.2 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 2 k G2: 3.1 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 1 k G3: 2.1 ip, 2 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 4 k G4: 5.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 3 k G5: 3.1 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 2 k TOTALS: 16.2 ip, 12 h, 1 r, 1 er, 8 bb, 12 k, 0.54 era, 1.20 whip, 6.5 k/9 HUGE EDGE: BOSTON Offense Det: 164 ab, 16 r, 42 h, 9 2b, 0 3b, 2 hr, 15 rbi, 15 bb, 34 k, 2 sb, 0 cs, .256/.333/.348/.681 Bos: 165 ab, 14 r, 34 h, 9 2b, 1 3b, 3 hr, 13 rbi, 13 bb, 61 k, 5 sb, 0 cs, .206/.268/.327/.595 Boston gets the baserunning edge and they've outscored Detroit in 3 of the 5 games, but on the whole, Detroit's offense has been better. Obviously the stats are a bit slanted thanks to game 4. EDGE: DETROIT Fielding and Intangibles Both managers have made interesting moves, from pitching changes to pinch-running to lineup changes. It's hard to tell who is doing a better job. Both have made questionable moves and both have made sensible ones. In terms of fielding, Boston has made 2 errors and a couple of non-errors by Pedroia in game 4 that still probably should have been made. Detroit has 3 errors (2 HUGE ones: Cabrera last night and Iglesias in game 2), and a few more plays that could have been made (Fielder's drop of a foul pop, Sanchez should have made a play last night). Both teams have made some great plays (Pedroia's diving stop, Ellsbury's diving catch, Gomes stumbling grab, Iglesias' incredible catch last night, etc.). But on the whole, Boston's defense has been better. EDGE: BOSTON We thought it would be a close series, and after 5 games, it has been incredibly tight. Boston leads 3 games to 2, but Detroit has outscored them by 2 runs overall. It's been as close a series as one could have imagined, with four of the five games being decided by one run. Just great, gut-wrenching, nail-biting, drama-filled baseball theater. Incredible stuff.

Replacing an ice-cold Middlebrooks with a player who has performed well in the playoffs so far and who is probably a significantly better all-around player even at this moment is hardly an overreaction.

The bad: - Peavy was terrible. - Pedroia was terrible. - Too many wasted chances offensively. - The Sox face Sanchez, Scherzer, and Verlander - who combined to absolutely dominate the Sox their first go-round. Tough hill to climb. The good: - The bats kind of woke up, even though they only got 3 runs. Nice to see some actual hits. - The bullpen continues to be amazing - up to 13+ innings of scoreless relief. - 2 of the next 3 are at home. - Lester and Buchholz go next...hoping they can get two excellent starts from these two.

I read yesterday that Scherzer admitted after the game that he was "done", so it's hard to get on Leyland for that move. And Verlander can go 130, so it'll be hard to wait him out. That may be why Gomes is playing instead of Nava - maybe a patient approach against Verlander isn't the way to go, and you'd rather have a guy that can just jump on a fastball.

Maybe. I'll just quote my words in the OP: "One issue to keep in mind is the managing. Jim Leyland has been there, done that, and is one of the most respected managers in the game. John Farrell...well, this is his first time as a manager on this stage. He's been there as a coach, but not a manager. I think, because we see Farrell's in-game decision-making every day, that we worry about the moves he'll make. Well every manager does things that makes their fan base scratch their collective heads. We just don't see it every day. Both managers are very smart. Both will make very good moves, and at least one move that make us go, "Huh?" If I had to give an edge, I'd give it to Leyland, based on his experience and reputation. But I'm comfortable with Farrell. "

I lumped the manager in with the intangibles. And clearly, since neither of these are measurable, we're simply talking opinion here.

Well, that's the $64,000 question, isn't it? These two teams are very evenly matched. Obviously, in a short series, it could go either way. One ball bouncing off the chalk or landing just foul can tip the series. Just think back to the ALDS game 4 - Drew's hard liner with the bases loaded is snagged by Loney; but DeJesus' liner is just over Napoli's glove. Summing up the edges: Offense: Slight edge, Boston Starting Pitching: Slight edge, Detroit Bullpen: Edge, Boston Defense: Edge, Boston Intangibles: Slight edge, Detroit Plus, Boston has the home-field advantage (something I should have included in the "intangibles" department). I'd say that it adds up to a Boston win in 7. However, if the series goes 7, then we're talking about a game 7 matchup of Verlander vs. Lackey. If that happens, how many of us feel comfortable about that? Not me. So it would mean that the Sox' best chance is to win in 6. So I'm going to say, either Boston in 6 or Detroit in 7. And if you put a gun to my head, I'll say Boston in 6. But I am not at all confident in that prediction.