Orange Juiced

I was not at all a fan of the Porcello extension before he ever pitched an inning for the Sox. Made no sense to me. I was ok with them trading Cespedes for him but disagreed strongly with the extension. He just isn't good enough to justify that kind of financial commitment.

It's better than fielding percentage.

Some people sell drugs professionally.

Gambling is, of course, generally speaking a losing proposition. So yes, it's a dumb idea. Doesn't mean the occasional person can't do fairly well. It's just against the odds is all. Nothing you don't already know.

2013 was a fluke. Just about everything that could go right, did. Nothing wrong with that. That's how magical seasons work. Everything came together. Lackey finally pitched well. Lester was great. Clay was (when healthy) brilliant and not the sucky Clay that often shows up. Koji put together one of the greatest seasons of relief in MLB history. Look at the offensive seasons these guys put up: Player - 2013 ops+, career ops+ Salty - 118, 94 Drew - 111, 94 Gomes - 110, 106 Victorino - 118, 103 Nava - 127, 103 Carp - 139, 108 Lavarnway - 106, 56 Heck, they even got 17 hr and 87 ops+ out of Middlebrooks (he has only 11 hr and a 58 ops+ in 2014 and 2015 combined). And they got a 1.81 era out of Craig freaking Breslow. 2013 was magical, a statistical anomaly. So many players performed at a better-than-normal level. Kind of the opposite from, say, 2014, when they got below-normal performances from most players.

Betting on sports in general is pretty dumb, not just baseball.

I think JBJ presents a very interesting conundrum for the Red Sox and Dombrowski (wow is THAT weird to say or what!?). He's already probably the best fielding CF in all of MLB. He makes great catches look routine, and every day it seems he comes up with at least one unbelievable catch. If he can be an average hitter, he becomes an incredibly valuable player. If he can be a *good* hitter, he becomes one of the best all around players in baseball. This is a great test of nerve for Dombrowski. JBJ has tantalizing talent, and his recent hitting gives hope that he can truly be an elite overall player. And you simply don't unload guys like that, especially when you're paying them the league minimum. Talk about surplus value! However, let's suppose that this hitting (which, say, continues through the end of the season) is a bit of a mirage, and his true hitting talent level is below average. Not abysmal, but merely below average. Let's say that that's the evaluation of him by the Sox. If he finishes this year continuing to rake, his value will be SKY high. Other teams will believe in him. In the offseason before the 2015 season, you'd have to have JBJ as a throw-in to a larger trade in order to get anything of value. Now, in the scenario I paint, JBJ could be the centerpiece of a deal that nets you big-time pitching. Maybe, for example, a trade with the Mets for one of their young, frontline, cost-controlled starting pitchers. (Maybe a deal like Bradley and Johnson for DeGrom or something like that.) My fear is that if they deal him for anything less than a stud, we will watch JBJ blossom into an elite CF for the next 8 years - on someone else's team. But if they hang on to him, his hitting will crash back to earth and he'll be nothing more than a good defensive replacement at the end of games. What to do with JBJ is a very, very difficult and interesting decision Dombrowski faces.

A bullpen of Koji, Tazawa, Layne, Mujica, and Workman is a pretty good start.

Porcello has a home in VT and reportedly would love to be here. Already word is that he's interested in an extension. I don't think he is going to leave via free agency. But of course, who knows?

C - Vazquez 1b - Napoli 2b - Pedroia 3b - Sandoval SS - Bogaerts LF - Ramirez CF - Betts/Castillo RF - Betts/Castillo DH - Ortiz Bench - veteran C, Holt, Victorino, Craig SP - Lester, Porcello, Buchholz, Kelly, RDLR RP - Miller, Tazawa, Layne, Uehara, Workman, Mujica, Barnes/Webster/Ranaudo (one of those three) That team right there would be *very* good. With a chance to be great, if Buchholz reverts to the "good" Clay.

I agree. They really weren't as good as they showed in 2013, and they weren't as bad as they showed in 2012 and 2014. I think that's fair.

2013 was certainly an aberration. They got very good seasons from most everyone on the roster. That doesn't often happen.

I agree 100%. Spot on.

Things constantly change. That's the way it goes.

JBJ will almost certainly either be traded or start the year in Pawtucket.

It's not even Thanksgiving yet, Fred. Everyone can relax. The Red Sox are NOT spending this money on Panda and Hanley only to not upgrade their rotation as well. The only thing that gets me a little antsy is 700's scenario whereby X or Betts gets dealt for a #2 starter type. That would kill me. Of course, I think Cherington is smart enough to so something so colossally stupid. (But Lucchino might be...)

He's 28 and is going to make $19.6 million AAV. For a .739 ops (111 ops+) and 3.3 WAR. Meanwhile, your 3b will turn 40 this season and is going to make $21 million. And the last season he really played (2012) he had a 111 ops+ and put up 2.2 WAR. It's unclear to me why you would be enjoying this for a while. But hey, whatever floats your boat.

The Hanley dogging it meme is WAY overplayed. We remember the play where he jogged into LF to retrieve that one ball. Ok, that was YEARS ago. He will be fine here. Goodness, Ortiz practically walks to first base if he hits a grounder into the shift. Of course, he practically walks to first base when he hits one 450 feet to right center too. :-)

Yes it would be. Add a veteran catcher to back up Vazquez and the bench would be versatile and deep and talented. Redundancies everywhere. Sign Lester, trade Cespedes+ for a #2, and this team is an AL favorite.

Sure. Cueto Hamels To name a couple. Of course, if the other team is loaded with hitters and only has the one good pitcher, they're less likely to do that. I'm talking about trades in a bit of a context-free environment. But you could absolutely get Cueto or Hamels for that. Well, maybe not Hamels because Amaro is a complete idiot (hence the Ryan Howard contract). You could get Price for that in a cocaine heartbeat.

Yes. Not Felix or Kershaw, but yes.

Victorino, Holt, and Craig to the bench. Cespedes traded. Another option is Victorino starts, but Betts plays every day, just at a different position, giving 2b, 3b, LF, CF, and RF a regular day off.

Zero chance the Sox would do that trade. If they did, I would publicly eat a huge pile of crow and pay homage to you. No,way they deal a power bat, a prospect, and Mookie Betts for Hamels and his humongous contract.

C Vazquez 1b Napoli 2b Pedroia 3b Sandoval SS Bogaerts LF Ramirez CF Castillo RF Betts (or perhaps Castillo with Betts in CF) DH Ortiz That's how it will shake out.

I think those are the two guys that execs would not deal straight up for Betts. Again, we are talking about a 22-year old, with unbelievable minor league numbers, who can play multiple positions well, who in just 52 games already has put up more than 2 WAR, and will be cost controlled til 2021. He is worth a TON. If you're the Sox' GM and all you trade Cespedes (a legit 25-30 homer bat) and Betts for a #2 starter, you should be fired on the spot.