Orange Juiced

Minors maybe. Not traded. He's worth a *fortune*. Unless they're getting back a Strasburg or Felix or Kershaw, he's going nowhere. He sure as heck isn't going to be included in a package along with Cespedes for a #2 starter, 700. If any team asked for that the Sox would hang up before the other exec spoke the last word of the question. BTW, I hope you don't really think that Craig would be the kind of guy to keep Betts from playing every day in Boston. If faced with that choice, Boston would DFA Craig so fast it would make your head spin.

Especially if the #2 only has one year left on his contract, like Iwakuma or Latos.

Hanley is not a good fielding SS anymore. They aren't likely to put him there. In fact, the Sox' interest in Hanley really only arose after Hanley contacted them telling them he'd be willing to play 3b or LF. That should tell you something about what they're thinking. It may be a first in your experience, but I would encourage you to begin wrapping your head around it, because that is likely to be the plan here.

Cespedes + X or Betts gets you a #1. I don't know if you really appreciate the value that Mookie Betts has in baseball right now. He alone would fetch a TON. In his minor league years plus his short stint in the majors, he projects to become at least a 6 WAR player in his mid-20s. Here are the MLB pitchers who put up a 6+ WAR last year: Kershaw - 7.5 Kluber - 7.4 Hernandez - 6.8 Hamels - 6.6 Sale - 6.6 Cueto - 6.4 Wainwright - 6.1 Scherzer - 6.0 Betts, a 22-year old, cost-controlled (read: making league minimum until 2021), versatile player who was, in just 52 games, worth 2.1 WAR last year, and who put up insanely good numbers in the minor leagues, is *already* worth about $13-14 million a year. I wouldn't trade him straight up for Hamels or Wainwright at all. And neither would Boston. Throw in Cespedes, and the Sox will get back more than a #1 (not named Felix or Kershaw).

I was just telling you how it appeared. I accept your explanation.

It appeared you did. Or else, why mention Felix? Nobody in baseball puts much value in W-L record anymore, 700. Certainly not the Seattle or Boston executives who would be discussing the trade. He is a good pitcher for sure. Which is why the Sox should pursue him. But he's 33. In the last year of his contract. And they desperately need OF power, which Cespedes gives them. Cespedes + a prospect or two nets Iwakuma, quite likely.

Nobody cares about winning percentage. Iwakuma's era last year was 3.52, and he's 33 years old on the last year of his contract. Felix' was 2.14 and is perhaps the best pitcher in the AL. Comparing the two of them is ridiculous. There isn't a baseball person alive that would suggest to Boston that Iwakuma is somehow worth as much as Felix based on what you just said there, 700. I don't mind talking about this but let's try to remain within the realm of the real. EDIT: I don't want them to trade Bogaerts, but if trading him got us Sale, well then. Sign me up. I won't say the same thing for Hamels.

So you really think that the Sox are going to trade either Betts or Bogaerts? And what do you think they'd get in return? (BTW, you might be right if you say yes to the first question. We shall see. I highly doubt it, but I've been wrong before.)

Oakland was gunning for a WS title. The situation is a little different now. We shall see.

Cespedes and a prospect could easily yield a guy like Iwakuma. If they had to throw in a tertiary prospect too, fine. And you better get used to the idea of Betts in RF or perhaps CF (if they put Castillo in RF). Because that's what's about to happen.

Fred, the Sox are at 123. The luxury tax is 189. Pablo = 19. Hanley = 22. That puts them at 164. Trading Cespedes puts them at 154, leaving them with 29 million. Lester signs for 25, leaving them with 4 million. Iwakuma is only 7 million. So they just need to shed a little more salary to do this. Which they can do pretty easily. And even if they go over, it'll only cost them a very small percentage, meaning it'll only be another million or two at most. And just for one year. Which they will promptly get back under in 2016 very easily. Relax, Fred. Signing Panda and Hanley doesn't prevent them from getting Lester. Unless Lester ends up costing $30 million or so.

Cespedes by himself won't get a #2 pitcher. But Cespedes + a second tier prospect (which they have tons of) will probably get a #2 pitcher in his last year of his contract, like an Iwakuma. Neither Xander nor Betts are blocked by these signings. Not at all. Betts will be fine in RF despite not having a great arm. He will cover so much ground out there he will be a plus defender in RF.

It's almost like he thinks that all the moves need to be made at once. As if you can't address one thing at a time. As if signing two of the best offensive FAs means that they therefore will not address the pitching. The Sox have plenty of resources (money, prospects) to go get two top-tier starting pitchers, either via free agency or trade. Which they will. And then the Red Sox will be one of the favorites to win the AL pennant.

I would be shocked too. But two things: (1) As his WAR decreases, the value of one WAR increases, so it may even out. And (2) it's ok if he is a bit of an overpay late in his contract. By then the Sox will have so much cost-controlled talent in the majors that they'll be able to afford it easily. Yep, he was SO good that even playing far less than a full season he STILL put up those WAR numbers. Let a healthy Victorino play the other games and you've got a very valuable and productive OF combo. Hanley Ramirez is a VERY good baseball player. Trying to spin it otherwise is just that…spin. Believe me, I know that they all had great years that year. I'm just saying that even if Hanley isn't the best defensive LF, you can very much win with that. Fortunately, they'll be *outstanding* on defense at C, 1b, 2b, CF, and RF. It'll be an upgrade for a while. If they don't address the pitching, it won't matter. But we both know they will address the pitching. They have plenty of money to add Lester, trade Cespedes for a #2 starter (Iwakuma?), and stay under the luxury tax threshold. You just need one. And his value will be fine as long as there's a team that needs a power hitter and has a good SP with just one year left on his contract. And there are plenty of those teams out there actually. Seattle is a perfect fit with Iwakuma. Yes it is. I'm not going by the start of 2014, when they were the defending WS champs. I'm comparing it to the end of 2014, which is what we should be doing because, you know, that's the team they ended up with last year. Betts is going to be a monster. Bogaerts will be just fine. Still a stacked farm system. Hardly. The Sox are better today by a wide margin than they were yesterday. But again, YMMV.

Their lineup was HORRIFIC last year. They were 11th in the AL in runs scored. Now their lineup should be: RF Betts 2b Pedroia DH Ortiz LF Ramirez 3b Sandoval 1b Napoli SS Bogaerts CF Castillo C Vazquez That's a very good lineup, capable of being top 3 in runs scored. As far as pitching goes, yes, they have major holes. But if you think the Sox aren't going to address that, you're crazy. They'll get two quality starters and roll with those two, Buchholz (who, when healthy, is quality), Kelly (he's ok, not great), and one of the kids, probably RDLR, who was fine for a #5 pitcher.

seabeachfred, the Sox will trade Cespedes and his contract. They can sign Lester and trade for another #2 starter and still be under the luxury tax threshold.

jackson, I understand your sentiment. But please. Consider: 1. One WAR is worth between $6-7 million. Sandoval, the past four seasons, has averaged 3.6 WAR. This past year he was worth 3.3 WAR. That 3.3 WAR is worth between $19.8 and $23.1 million in todays baseball economy. The contract is worth about $19.5 AAV (if I read the reports correctly). That would put his contract to be slightly undervalued given what he actually produces. Now, we can talk about whether one WAR *should* be worth that much money. But such talk is irrelevant. Because that's what it is worth in today's baseball economy. So Sandoval is not a *great* deal, but he's not bad either. 2. Hanley is on just a 4-year deal. He's just 30. And despite his injuries, he still put up 5.4 and 3.5 WAR the past two seasons. So he's worth well north of $22 million per season. 3. In 2013, the Red Sox won the World Series with Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava patrolling left field. They were -0.4 and -1.3 defensive WAR in 2013, respectively. Hanley will be better than -1.7 dWAR almost by default. And if not, his offense is still better. 4. Last year, Red Sox' LF and 3b had a .700 and .580 ops, respectively. Hanley had an .817 ops and Sandoval had a .739 ops, in pitchers' parks. MAJOR offensive upgrade for the 2015 Red Sox. 5. They still have plenty of money for Lester. 6. They will deal Cespedes for pitching. 7. The Red Sox are a much better baseball team right now than they were in 2014. With more to come. 8. They still have a ridiculously stacked farm system with some of the best prospects in baseball. Long story short, if I'm a Yankee fan, I'm not exactly laughing at the Red Sox right at this moment. But YMMV I guess.

Could you link to some?

From McAdam: "Intriguingly, the Pirates have also had some interest in some of the Red Sox available relievers with a particular focus on Andrew Miller. If the Sox were willing to expand the deal and trade both Miller and Lester, it's possible they could land both Bell and Meadows, or at least one of the top tier prospects and others from the Pittsburgh system." (see: http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/lester-scratch-makes-sense-trade-appears-imminent) The Sox are almost certainly not re-signing Miller - he will cost a ton in the offseason as a FA. So may as well deal him too. To get back both Bell and Meadows would be incredible. See here for a closer look at these two guys. Two top prospects, both OF (which the Sox need), both terrific hitters.

Ortiz will not be in the HOF, for three reasons: (1) No DH has ever made it to the HOF. (2) His numbers, while terrific, will not be overwhelming. There are several players now not in the HOF that put up Ortiz' numbers. (3) He is, like it or not, connected to PEDs. Red Sox HOF? Absolutely. Baseball HOF in Cooperstown? No.

Stanton WILL get traded at some point. He's going to command something in the neighborhood of 8 years, $28-30 million a year. Zero chance the Marlins will do that. So the question is, what teams can (a) offer them a package that they'll really want, and ( afford to pay Stanton that kind of money? There are not that many teams that can do that. NYY - Can certainly pay him, but the farm system doesn't have what it takes to get him. StL - Has the pieces to get him, but they never spend that kind of money. LAD - Since they're the new Yankees, they can afford to pay him and they have the pieces (Seager, Pederson) to get him. But holy cow, will they want to have a $300 million payroll? Phi - Willing to spend, but has many big commitments already, and I don't think they have the prospects to pull off a deal. ChC - Has both the prospects and the ability to pay, plus a GM ballsy enough to make it happen. Bos - See above. I think that's probably about it. Long story short, Boston is one of a few teams that has the resources to trade for Stanton *and* the ability to pay him what he'll command. And since he's going to get traded (near 100% certainty of that within a year or two), I think the Sox should be collecting as many assets as possible to get him. And maybe that's the idea with Lester. Maybe they figure they have such a promising group of starting pitching prospects that they can afford to go the inexpensive route there, which frees up enough money to go get Stanton and pay huge bucks for him. So maybe 2016 is the year they hope to have it all pulled together: C - Vazquez 1b - Middlebrooks 2b - Pedroia 3b - Bogaerts SS - Marrero LF - Holt CF - Bradley RF - Tomas (Cuban prospect) DH - Stanton Subs - Swihart, Nava, Coyle, a couple of other veterans SP - Buchholz, RDLR, Webster, Workman, Ranaudo (whomever they haven't traded to get Stanton), plus a couple of moderately priced veterans RP - a group of veterans, mixing in a couple of the kids like Brian Johnson That team wouldn't cost that much, could easily afford Stanton and Tomas, the terrific Cuban prospect. All the kids would have had a year or two worth of MLB seasoning. It would be ready to compete for a championship, I believe.

Workman or Webster would be my guess. I really was hoping Doubront would take the next step because he had been, over the last couple of years, shown signs of becoming a solid 4th starter. But that seemed to all go poof! this year.

The Sox have a wealth of quality pitching prospects: Owens, Ranaudo, Johnson, Webster, RDLR, Workman. That's six young guys all with pretty nice MLB upside. Plus the guy they just added to the roster from the Peavy deal, Escobar. There's a LOT to be excited about in this regard. However, 700 is right - we really don't want three of them pitching in the rotation in 2015, or it's going to be a very rough season. One for sure is ok. Maybe two, depending on who the other three are.

I agree with you. And I would do the proposed deal, mainly for three reasons: (1) Stanton's ceiling is higher than Bogaerts', (2) Stanton is already, despite being very young, a proven MLB player, and (3) the Sox have Betts and Marrero as prospects (well, Betts is obviously in the majors now), along with Brock Holt (who I think is a pretty solid player, though not as good as his current stats suggest), all of whom can play SS for the Sox. They have no real OF prospects worth mentioning. Certainly nothing close to Stanton. They did not have to move him to SS. They moved him because Middlebrooks was hurt and the easiest and cheapest (in terms of prospects; Drew just cost money) way to solve the problem was to simply sign Drew and move Bogaerts to 3b, a place where he was successful last year in limited time. Finding a solid SS/3b replacement was easier given that Drew was available, and no quality 3b was without costing the team prospects. The Drew to SS, X to 3b play was really the simplest and cheapest way to solve the problem the team faced. I don't think it was because they couldn't have X at short. Or Lester dealing from the mound.

No way do I want XB off SS right now. I want him growing into the position. He's a long term stud. I'm ok with some early season growing pains.