Orange Juiced

Things go wrong: 73 Things go great: 96 So my best guess: More things go right than go wrong, and they end up with between 88-90 wins, in the hunt for the division all season long, and end up making the playoffs.

Murphy on a minor league deal is a solid little move.

Keith Foulke has been brought back to the Red Sox in an advisory capacity, which is pretty cool. Reminds me of how incredible he was during the 2004 run. And then I got thinking of 2004, 2007, and 2013. Look at these closers and the performances they put up for the Sox during those championship seasons.... 2004 Foulke (1-0, 3 sv, 1 bs) - 11 g, 14.0 ip (1.3/g), 7 h, 1 r, 1 er, 8 bb, 19 k, 0.64 era, .531 ops, 1.07 whip, 12.2 k/9 2007 Papelbon (1-0, 4 sv) - 7 g, 10.2 ip (1.5/g), 5 h, 0 r, 0 er, 4 bb, 7 k, 0.00 era, .436 ops, 0.84 whip, 5.9 k/9 2013 Uehara (1-1, 7 sv) - 13 g, 13.2 ip (1.1/g), 7 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 16 k, 0.66 era, .413 ops, 0.51 whip, 10.5 k/9 I think there was more pressure on Foulke than either Papelbon or Koji. It seemed like every game he was in was just unbelievably pressure-packed and tense. Papelbon wasn't as statistically dominant in terms of k/9 or ops against, but he didn't give up a run, and in every game he pitched the Sox won. He also pitched more innings per game than either Foulke or Koji, so while he didn't pitch as many games, he was leaned on to get more outs on average than either guy when he did get called upon. And it's not like his whip was chopped liver, at 0.84. Koji was mind-bogglingly good in terms of ops against and whip (0.51!!!), and he pitched a LOT. But he also lost a game as well. Which of these postseason relief performances would you guys say was the best and why?

Totally agree.

If things go badly for Boston... - Price is less effective than normal (say, high 3's era...solid, but not ace solid). - Koji and Taz are hurt and Smith isn't up to par in Boston, leaving the Sox with just one really good bullpen arm in Kimbrel. - Hanley and Pablo are not so bad that the front office HAS to replace them, but they're just not very good. - JBJ can't hit again. - Farrell inexplicably plays Young a lot more than he should. - Pedroia is beat up again. - Ortiz' swan song is depressingly bad. And the Sox finish in dead last again. If things go well for Boston... - Ortiz finishes strong. - Pablo and Hanley bounce back and are pretty good. - The young OFs are all really good. - The rotation behind Price steps up; Clay, Porcello, and Kelly all have big years. - The bullpen is as dominant as it looks like it can be. And the Sox win 97 games. Honestly, it could totally go either way. It's crazy. There are so many unknowns. So many things I'm hopeful and optimistic about, but so many things that have a reasonable chance of going wrong. Could be a wild ride this year.

Ok folks, people are reporting to Ft. Myers, and baseball is getting underway. I am so excited for this season!!! I know the Sox were bad last year (last place, obviously). But there were some good things that we saw, especially in the second half of the season. Namely: - They played just about .500 ball (36-37). - Their ops went from .711 in the first half to .766 in the second. - Their team era went from 4.44 in the first half to 4.15 in the second. - We saw the emergence of Bogaerts, Betts, and JBJ. - Swihart got valuable experience. - Travis Shaw showed us that he may be a legit major league player. And then in the offseason, the Sox added perhaps the best SP on the market (Price), perhaps the best bullpen arm on the market (Kimbrel), a solid veteran lefty-mashing OF (Young), and a really, really good bullpen arm (Smith). The lineup should be outstanding. I envision this: CF Betts SS Bogaerts 2b Pedroia DH Ortiz 1b Ramirez LF Castillo 3b Sandoval C Swihart/Vazquez RF Bradley They should have an outstanding and versatile bench, with Shaw, Holt, Young, and Swihart/Vazquez/veteran C. I'm excited for this offense. As for the pitching, the rotation is significantly upgraded. Price changes everything. SP: Price, Buchholz, Rodriguez, Porcello, Kelly And the bullpen will add three outstanding pitchers (one coming back from injury in Koji). RP: Koji, Smith, Kimbrel, Tazawa, Layne, and then they can mix and match the other two spots. If Clay has a "good Clay" season, this rotation will be fantastic. The bullpen will be dominant, with Koji, Smith, Kimbrel, and Taz. With four excellent relievers, they should be able to hold leads after 5 innings and that allows them to actually come back in games when they're down a couple of runs late. I want to see how Hanley handles first. I want to see the young kids develop. I want to see how Price does in Boston. I want to see Kimbrel dominate late in games. I couldn't be more excited for the start of a season. I think they'll be right there for the division title this year. The outlook for 2016 is very strong, IMO.

The thread is being hijacked a little here, but oh well. Would you rather have a catcher who is an excellent (not necessarily elite) hitter and an average defender, or one who is an elite defender but a below-average (but not terrible) hitter? Perhaps it depends on how the rest of the roster is constructed.

Yeah that's a great question, jackson. They have enough quality arms (especially if Barnes develops and Workman comes back....who knows) so that they should be able to mix and match as needed. Price should give them 7-8 on a nightly basis. Porcello certainly has that ability. It's Rodriguez and Kelly in particular that, even when they're on, probably won't give you more than 6. Those are the nights where you're gonna have to dig deeper into the pen.

As currently constituted, let's evaluate these areas of strength or weakness on the Red Sox. Here are the categories: - Power - Getting on base - Speed/baserunning - Starting pitching - Bullpen - Infield defense - Outfield defense - Position player depth - Management - Farm system Power The Sox have one player with tremendous power (Ortiz), but he's getting long in the tooth. Nonetheless, the last two seasons he's hit 72 homers (35 and 37, respectively, the last two years). They also have a number of guys who can hit between 15-25 homers (Hanley, Pedroia, Pablo, Betts, Shaw, Bradley). Long story short, they have the potential to hit a lot of homers as a team. Last year they finished 9th in the AL with 161 homers. I think they should be in the top 5 or 6 in the league in homers next year. Grade: B+ Getting on base Last year they were 3rd in the AL in OBP. I see that improving this year as well. Their young guys have another year of experience. Pedroia is healthy again. This is a team strength. Grade: A- Speed/baserunning Bradley, Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Swihart are good baserunners. The team has some speed (Castillo, Betts), but they don't steal a lot of bases. They won't scare too many teams with their baserunning, though they are solid enough. Grade: C+ Starting pitching The addition of Price changes the outlook here. Losing Miley hurts, but not as much as adding Price helps. The current rotation looks like this: Price, Buchholz, Rodriguez, Porcello, Kelly. Owens, Wright, Johnson, and Elias are waiting in the wings. If Clay is "good Clay" - that is, healthy and pitching to his capability - this rotation could be outstanding. If Clay is "bad Clay" - that is, either injured or not effective - then this rotation looks a lot weaker. Unfortunately, we just don't know what Clay we're going to get. Porcello and Kelly came around the second half of the year, so that bodes well. On the whole, the rotation is now a strength. Grade: B (Potential for anywhere between a C and an A) Relief pitching Three additions make this bullpen one of the best in the league, IMO. Kimbrel is truly one of the best relievers in all of baseball - and he's been historically good over the course of his career. Smith is a dominant 7th-8th inning guy who could close. And Koji - well, he's not an addition to the roster, but with him healthy, he adds a lot to the bullpen. Throw in Taz and Layne (death on lefties), and this bullpen is versatile and skilled. They can really shorten a game, taking pressure off the rotation. This went from one of the worst groups in baseball to one of the best. Grade: A Infield defense Sandoval is average at third. Bogaerts is well above average at short. Pedroia is a gold glover at second. That leaves.....Hanley at first. And frankly, who knows about him. If he's bad, it impacts the whole infield defense. If he's average, then the infield defense is pretty solid. Hanley is a real wild card though. Holt and Shaw give them solid defense in reserve. Grade: C+ (potential for a D+ to an A-) Outfield defense This is probably the greatest strength of the current Red Sox. Castillo is very good. Betts is outstanding. And Bradley is otherworldly. Young is very capable when he's in there, and if Holt had to play OF, he has shown he can do that with solid ability as well. The Red Sox' outfield defense is almost certainly the best in all of baseball. Speed. Gloves. Terrific throwing arms. They have it all in this area. Grade: A++ Position player depth The bench right now looks like this: C - Hanigan; IF - Shaw; IF/OF - Holt; OF - Young. Good mix of lefties and righties. Good mix of youth and veterans. Solid defensively. Good power. Versatile. Shaw can play 3b, 1b, and corner OF if need be. Holt can play anywhere. Young can play any OF position. For just having four players, they have everything covered WELL. Excellent bench. Grade: A Management Farrell is...well....we're not really sure what he is. Won a World Series, so great. But also had a couple of last place finishes, so not so great. I think he's a so-so manager. Makes some mind-numbing moves, but does a good job managing people. You could do better, but you could do worse. Dombrowski is one of the best GMs in the sport, so the Sox are in good hands there. Ownership is willing to spend and put together a great on-field product. Grade: B Farm system The Red Sox have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. Adding Price and Kimbrel and Smith and Elias hasn't cost the Sox' system too much. They still have a horde of prospects that have very high ceilings. Moncada, Devers, Espinosa, Benintendi, Kopeck, Travis, Marrero, Chavis, etc. Just loads of prospects waiting in the wings. Grade: A

Those five pitchers (Smith/Taz/Koji/Kimbrel/Layne), used correctly, form a pretty awesome bullpen. That means that the Sox only really need 5-6 innings from guys like Kelly or Rodriguez.

Excellent trade, and I say that as someone who wanted to keep Miley. Smith is dominating, and he gives the Sox 4 outstanding relievers - Kimbrel, Smith, Koji, and a hopefully less taxed Tazawa, plus Layne, who is an excellent LOOGY. And Elias has numbers that are eerily similar to Miley, but he's younger and much cheaper and is cost-controlled for five seasons. Hard to see how this trade is anything but terrific. DD is kicking ass this off season.

Shelby Miller is a very intriguing young pitcher. Cost-controlled. Just 25. Career era of 3.22. Two of the last three years he's been worth three and a half wins, which is pretty significant. If Owens or Kelly ever became what Miller is NOW, it would be a very good thing. Giving up JBJ, Kelly, AND Owens is probably too much, however.

Dombrowski didn't set the market. He put out offers to Price and Greinke, apparently. Price was the primary target, presumably because he'd be cheaper. That it took this to get Price to come to Boston, when Price had other offers out there, tells you that this is what the market was for him. DD didn't outbid himself.

Huge value. Especially given where they are picking in the draft.

It's not an overpay if that's what the market is bearing. Keep in mind that Samardzija just got 5 years, $90 million from the Giants. He's 30 years old (31 in a month), and since he's been a starter, the past 4 seasons, he's put up this line: 35-52 (.402), 4.03 era, 1.23 whip, 8.3 k/9 Last year he put up this line: 11-13 (.458), 4.96 era, 1.29 whip, 6.9 k/9 Compare that to Price, who has been a starter his whole life and has a line of: 104-56 (.650), 3.09 era, 1.13 whip, 8.6 k/9 And is coming off a season where he posted this line: 18-5 (.783), 2.45 era, 1.01 whip, 10.9 k/9 Not even close to the caliber pitcher Price is. Of course, he got a lot less money. But still a LOT of money. For a pretty mediocre starter.

The amount of money teams are spending these days is just beyond comprehension. So yes, if Price performs pretty well the next 3 years, he'll hit the market at 33 years of age, and there's a very good chance by then, someone will offer him 5 years at $35 million per year. And if he thinks he can get that, he'll opt out.

Thank you. People can't whine about losing value from lost prospects and at the same time whine about trading prospects for elite MLB talent. If you have to trade some of them so their value doesn't go to waste, you can't complain when they do, in fact, trade them for established studs. The trick, as I said a few posts ago, is trading away the right guys. It's ok if some of them pan out elsewhere, but generally you want the ones you keep to emerge as really good MLB players. Bummer about Cecchini, but oh well. A team as flush with minor league talent as the Red Sox are going to see some of them flame out and lose their value. It's just how it goes.

Based on the Greinke contract, Price's doesn't look like an overpay anymore. But yes, they definitely got their ace. Outstanding.

In 3-4 years, the market for ace starting pitchers will be between $35-40 million a year. Heck, Greinke just got a contract, at age 32, for six years at more than $34 million a year.

The trick is cashing in on the right ones. Cecchini was not expendable when Middlebrooks started struggling. They needed to keep him around because there was no discernible plan for 3b. Sadly, Cecchini never panned out. It happens. Your point is correct, but it's not easy knowing which guys to sell off and which guys to keep.

No doubt there were a lot of questions about the rotation. But again, they didn't need to outperform their career norms. Just match them. None of them did. That it all blew up was a statistical oddity that is unlikely to happen again. Just one of those things, really. In fact, most of them pulled it together in the 2nd half of the year, but the bullpen blew too many games. They were one of the better teams in the AL over the 2nd half.

If the pitchers in last year's rotation had simply pitched up to their career norms, they'd have been fine. Until last year with the Sox, here were these guys' career numbers: Miley: 3.79 era, 103 era+ Porcello: 4.20 era, 97 era+ Kelly: 3.41 era, 112 era+ Buchholz: 3.92 era, 109 era+ Masterson: 4.24 era, 95 era+ That group would have been solid overall, if they had just pitched to their career averages. Not asking for any of them to do anything special. Just be....who themselves. Well, they weren't. They were all awful except Clay, who was great until he got hurt. Well, maybe that IS who Clay is I guess. But really, this crew should have provided the Sox with a plenty good enough rotation. But they sucked. Ben wasn't asking too much of them, really. He wasn't asking any of them to be better than their career averages. But they failed.

The Red Sox are so much better now than they were at the start of the offseason, it isn't even funny. Price bumps the worst starter out of the rotation, and the difference between the Red Sox' #5 starter and David Price is.....gargantuan. Kimberly bumps the worst reliever pitcher out of the bullpen, and Koji also returns. And the difference between Kimbrel and the worst reliever is.....gargantuan. Young is a really nice 4th OF, is a RH pull hitter who is perfect for Fenway, and while I don't want him as my everyday left-fielder, he can definitely be a serviceable starter if one of the other guys gets hurt or goes into a funk. The Sox made these huge upgrades without giving up any significant chip. Margot and Guerra were good chips, maybe really good chips. But nothing this organization can't handle losing. Like, at all. Every Red Sox fan should be THRILLED with how this offseason is going. If they aren't, I have no idea what will make them happy.

We will soon when players start moving around.

I don't agree with the premise. This team was one of the best teams in baseball the last two months of the year. Adding Kimbrel and getting Koji back alone will be huge improvements for the bullpen. The offense really improved over the second half of the year and there's no reason to think it won't be one of the best in baseball in 2016. The one big piece still needed is a stud at the top of the rotation. They get Price, say, and go to war with this team, they'll be very tough: SP - Price, Miley, Rodriguez, Buchholz, Porcello RP - Wright, Kelly, Ross, Barnes, Tazawa, Koji, Kimbrel C - Swihart 1b - Hanley 2b - Pedroia 3b - Panda SS - Bogaerts LF - Castillo CF - Betts RF - JBJ DH - Ortiz Bench - Hanigan, Holt, Shaw, RH OF bat That team has power, speed, OBP ability, power arms in the bullpen, a stud at the top of the rotation, pitching depth, and high level defense. It's absolutely good enough to compete for a division title.