Orange Juiced

You think me pointing out their godawful first half stats is me "ignoring" it? Very strange.

The Red Sox would have been fine if their 3s had pitched like 3s instead of putting up godawful numbers the first half of the year. Pitcher - 1st half era - 2nd half era Miley - 4.80 - 4.09 Porcello - 5.90 - 3.53 Kelly - 5.67 - 3.77 Masterson - 6.00 - 4.40 (eventually replaced) I mean, look at those first half era numbers: 4.80, 5.90, 5.67, 6.00. Those aren't the numbers of a #3 pitcher. Those are numbers of guys who should be DFA'd. In the case of Masterson, that's what eventually happened. If the Sox' rotation would put up eras of 4.09, 3.53, 3.77, 4.40, and 3.85 (Rodriguez), with a revamped and much-improved bullpen, with the way the offense and defense really came around last year, this team will absolutely be a title contender.

The Sox have more than enough pieces to get Fernandez. Good grief. It's just that the guys the Marlins would want, I don't think the Sox would want to give up. Namely, Betts and Bogaerts.

Once again we are in agreement. Sox gave up some good prospects, but Kimbrel is one of the greatest relief pitchers in the history of the sport. No, that's not hyperbole. It's fact. He's been ridiculously good, and incredibly consistent. His drop-off from 2014 to 2015 was a drop-off from phenomenal to merely very, very good. And the drop-off was based on giving up 4 more homers than the previous year. Now, they happened, but it seems to be an anomaly. He threw harder in 2015 than in 2014. His strike % was the same. His k/9 was nearly the same. Maybe guys just got a smidge more wood on the ball than in years past. Take away those four homers and his era is right in line with 2014. So I'm comfortable thinking that it's just a weird statistical anomaly. He'll be tremendous and will improve our 9th, 8th, and 7th innings. This was a huge acquisition.

Dude has been incredible. Last two seasons: 2014 (age 38): .263/.355/.517/.873, 140 ops+, 35 hr, 104 rbi 2015 (age 39): .273/.360/.553/.913, 141 ops+, 37 hr, 108 rbi I would imagine he'd put up an ops of .850+, with at least 25 homers and 90 rbi. Would be a solid way to go out.

Because offense is down from a decade ago, any offense you get from primarily defensive positions is a significant competitive advantage. Swihart's defense seemed to be just fine. Not nearly the defender Vazquez is, but he was close to league average as a defender. It's his offensive potential that makes him stand out. Not saying that he won't be traded, but he'll be a very valuable piece if he IS traded.

Miley is performing basically as he should be. Rodriguez is an up and coming stud. Obviously Rich Hill isn't going to be that good, but it's only been 3 games, so whatever. Porcello *should* be pitching this well. He has that kind of ability. Kelly? Eh....we'll see. Owens? Maybe.

I want an ace. It's a challenge thinking through the best option, however. Price just costs money. But goodness it will be a TON of money. But there are juicy trade targets too. Harvey and Carrasco being the two highest on my list. Carrasco would cost less, but he's also likely going to be a lesser pitcher. Harvey is a stud. But he'll cost a ton to get. A rotation of Harvey/Clay/Miley/Porcello/Rodriguez, with Johnson/Wright/Owens as depth probably would be pretty darned good. Whither Kelly? Dealt to the Mets along with a positional player/prospect to land Harvey. And people, it's Buchholz. B.U.C.H.H.O.L.Z.

If that rotation was in place next year, and put up those ERA numbers all season long, the Red Sox would easily win the AL East, and would be a heavy favorite to make it to the World Series.

Much, much better than "decent". As I posted in another thread, here are their starters' ERA post-ASB: Hill: 3 g, 1.17 era Porcello: 10 g, 3.64 era Kelly: 11 g, 3.77 era Owens: 10 g, 3.84 era Miley: 13 g, 3.92 era Wright: 5 g, 3.99 era Rodriguez: 13 g, 4.04 era

Betts and Bogaerts are already stars, at age 22. They are amazing. As far as the pitching staff goes, since the all star break, the Sox are 16th in team ERA, at 4.14. If they were at that number all year, they'd likely be in the playoffs. Here are their starters post-ASB: Hill: 3 g, 1.17 era Porcello: 10 g, 3.64 era Kelly: 11 g, 3.77 era Owens: 10 g, 3.84 era Miley: 13 g, 3.92 era Wright: 5 g, 3.99 era Rodriguez: 13 g, 4.04 era I mean, if THAT was their starting staff all season long, doing that, they'd be running away with the division. But alas, they were miserable in the first half. And the bullpen is a disaster. That's the real problem.

To unload him like Crawford, they'd need to add in a top-shelf player like Adrian Gonzalez. That was what the Sox had to eat in order to get rid of Crawford. Do they have such a player? Not really, not at this point. But they absolutely could get rid of Hanley if they packaged him with, say, Owens, or Devers, or Margot. Someone would definitely take Hanley on to snag someone like that. The return wouldn't be much, but still. Could easily be done. Just a matter of how big a bullet the Sox are willing to bite to get rid of him.

Quite possible, yes. Though.....Carl Crawford, my friend. The first month into the year, Hanley put up this line: .293/.341/.659/.999, 10 hr, 22 rbi. He was absolutely destroying the baseball. Then he got hurt and his season went downhill after that. Who knows what he would have done had he not gotten hurt. I'm not arguing it was a good signing. I'm just saying that in the month of April, we saw his fielding deficiencies, but holy smokes was he raking. And a guy who has the ability to hit like that, if he played a better fielding position or, better yet, was a DH, is a pretty nice piece to have.

How many teams have four players on their big-league roster 23 years and younger producing like the Red Sox did this year?

If he stays healthy, he's well worth that money. What I love about this list is that the first four guys are not merely prospects. They are all 23 and under who have actually produced at the major league level. They aren't just kids in AA.

Every player in the Sox' system possesses certain value. Here's how I see them (not every single player in the system will be mentioned, for obvious reasons), taking into account performance, age, position value, and contract. 1. Mookie Betts. 22 years old. .811 ops, 116 ops+, 5.6 bWAR. Great speed, outstanding defense at all three OF positions, and if needed, could easily go back to his original position at 2b. If he was a free agent right now he'd make $25 million a year. He's making the league minimum and won't be arbitration eligible until 2018, and won't touch free agency until 2021. 2. Xander Bogaerts. 22 years old. .785 ops, 111 ops+, 4.7 bWAR, #1 in the AL in batting among qualified SS. Playing outstanding defense at a premier position. If he was a free agent he'd make $20 million at least as well. He's making the league minimum and won't be arbitration eligible until 2017, and won't be a free agent until 2020. One less year of control compared to Mookie brings his value down just a smidge. 3. Eduardo Rodriguez. 22 years old. Left-handed starting pitcher that has three plus pitches, including a 96 mph fastball that he locates well. 10-6, 3.85 era, 1.29 whip. Last 7 starts: 2.08 era, 1.29 whip. Just in his first year, won't be arbitration eligible until 2018, and won't touch free agency until 2021. 4. Blake Swihart. 23 years old. Hitting .269 and playing excellent defense. Rushed to the majors because of injuries to the big league roster, he's adjusted very well. Terrific athlete. Projects to be a potential all-star catcher. Won't be arbitration eligible until 2018, free agency not until 2021. 5. Yoan Moncada. 20 years old. Currently in single A Greenville. .817 ops there. True five-tool player. Stole 49 bases against just 3 caught stealing, in just 81 games played. Would have been the consensus #1 pick in the amateur draft last year had he been in the draft pool. Projects to be an all-star caliber player for years. A true stud prospect of the highest order. 6. Andrew Benintendi. 21 years old. Top pick of the Sox this past amateur draft. First year in the minors, at two levels, put up a composite line of .313/.416/.556/.972. Plays a premier position (CF). Has all the tools to be a truly great player. 7. Dustin Pedroia. 31 years old. 116 ops+ this year. Injured, however, playing just 89 games. Reasonable contract for his ability. Reasonable, but not great. Would fetch quite a bit back in return in a trade. 8. Henry Owens. 22 years old. Has acquitted himself very nicely in his first real stint in the majors. 3.84 era, 7.1 k/9, exhibits real swing-and-miss stuff. 9. Rafael Devers. 18 years old. Just in single A Greenville, but has displayed real power potential. Big-time prospect. 10. David Ortiz. 39 years old. Can only play DH, so his value is limited. But the big guy can still rake. 36 homers, 104 rbi, .898 ops, 137 ops+. 2.8 bWAR, so his contract is pretty much right in line with that, so no excess value there. But if you need a big-time bat, Ortiz can still get it done. Probably more valuable to the Red Sox than to other teams, however. 11. Christian Vazquez. 25 years old. Coming off a major injury. Young. Incredible defensively behind the plate. Neutralizes the other team's running game. 12. Manuel Margot. 20 years old. .745 ops at double A Portland. Whiz defensively, improving bat. High level prospect. 13. Brock Holt. 27 years old. Made the AL All star team this year. Can play every single position on the field, and well. .729 ops, 2.8 bWAR player. Arbitration eligible in 2017, and free agent eligible in 2020. 14. Wade Miley. 28 years old. Dependable. Nearly 200 innings pitched again. 3.80 fip means he's pitched better than his 4.39 era would indicate. Solid. Reliable. Consistent. Durable. Left-handed. Not a star, but a middle of the rotation guy that gives you a ton of innings. Very reasonable contract. 15. Jackie Bradley Jr. 25 years old. Electric defensively. Unsure what to make of him as a hitter. Was excellent in the minors, but struggled mightily (historically so) in the majors. Then had a 5-week stretch where he was Barry Bonds, and has since come back to earth. Still, on the year, his numbers are: .254/.341/.517/.858, 127 ops+. Best defensive OF in baseball perhaps. If he is a .250 hitter with 15 hr power, with his defense he is incredibly valuable. If he's really more of a .200 hitter, he's still worth being in the majors, but only as a defensive replacement (and a great one at that). The problem is, nobody really knows what he's going to be. 16. Rusney Castillo. 27 years old. Here on potential alone. Contract could be pretty nice if Castillo pans out. Not so nice if he doesn't. 17. Travis Shaw. 25 years old. Has done a very nice job in Boston this year. .280/.342/.510/.852, with 12 homers in 59 games. Plays a decent 1b and can also play 3b. So at worst he's proven himself to be a useful major league corner infield backup, and could end up better than that. Might end up being a 20 hr, 80 rbi, .330 on base kind of guy, which isn't incredible, but if those are his numbers, making league minimum, that's a valuable player, as it gives you reasonable production at such a low cost, that you could spend the money elsewhere. 18. Clay Buchholz. Still just 30 years old. Was having a terrific season until he got hurt (again). Jekyll and Hyde kind of guy. Could give you a 2.30 era, or a 5.30 era. Not durable, but his talent is tantalizing. And his contract is very nice, with team options at reasonable money. 19. Joe Kelly. 27 years old. Struggled early, but came on late in the year, putting up a 2.35 era in his last 8 starts. Electric stuff. If he can harness it, he's dynamite. If not, he gets hammered. But the potential is there. 20. Koji Uehara. 40 years old. Ended the year on the DL. But still, even at his age, he was terrific. 2.23 era, 0.92 whip, 10.5 k/9. His age is the big factor here, obviously, but he is still an outstanding relief pitcher, with championship experience. Ice in his veins. Would be a big help to any bullpen in baseball. Other veterans: - Hanigan - Tazawa - Layne - Oganda - Breslow - Rutledge - Sandoval - Ramirez Other prospects: - Espinoza - Travis - Guerra - Johnson - Kopech - Marrero - Chavis

The starting pitching has been very good the last month and a half. Everyone is making a case for being in the 2016 rotation. Rodriguez - 3.97 era, nasty stuff, just has been really solid Miley - last 19 starts: 126.2 ip (6.2 per start), 3.91 era, 1.26 whip Porcello - last 10 starts: 62.1 ip (6.0 per start), 3.47 era, 1.33 whip Kelly - last 8 starts before getting hurt: 2.35 era, 1.26 whip Owens - last 6 starts, including one gigantic stink bomb against NY: 3.60 era, 1.26 whip Hill - just two starts, but my goodness: 7.0 ip per start, 1.93 era, 0.64 whip, 12.9 k/9 So all the starters have been doing well recently. I still want a true ace for next year, but they are looking like they'll have quality depth. And this list, of course, doesn't even include Buchholz.

I'm very curious about the 1b of the future for the Red Sox. The options: Hanley Ramirez. Excellent power, 1b seems like the most likely fit for him moving forward. Depending on how long Ortiz plays, Hanley could see a shift to DH full time in the near future. I still think he's a good trade candidate (if the Sox eat $$). But if he stays, 1b is probably his spot. Travis Shaw. Really showing us something. Decent (not great) fielder. Very nice bat that plays very, very well in Fenway. .370/.418/.680/1.098 at home. Looks like he could be a 20-25 homer guy with very solid OBP and a decent glove. For the league minimum salary, that's outstanding production. Sam Travis. Just 22, he doesn't show as much power as Travis Shaw, but he has a terrific bat. .381 obp this year. Probably a better fielder than Shaw. Not as versatile (Shaw can also play 3b). Probably won't be ready for the majors for another full year or two. But a very nice prospect. So the Sox seem to be in pretty good shape for 1b, not with anyone who will be a superstar, but with some different, but solid options for the short and long term.

Rich Hill is giving the Sox something to think about for next year. Two excellent starts in a row. Low 90s fastball, dynamic curve. He's old (36), so that means he'd probably be a cheap guy to sign. I'd definitely consider signing him for one or two years, and having him as depth for the rotation or the bullpen.

Yes they have been. Owens + Bogaerts for Harvey + Flores + lottery ticket The Sox start Holt but Flores is a decent backup. The Mets get stud SS and a nice SP prospect. I'm sure this deal will never happen, but it's exactly the kind of deal that would be a win-win for both teams, and would make a TON of sense.

Bogaerts isn't a lottery ticket. He's already a stud. A 22-year old, all-star caliber shortstop making the league minimum.

Bogaerts is definitely a star already. Not a superstar. That will come when he's belting 15-20 homers, which will probably come in the next few years. 2015 fWAR - Bogaerts: 3.8 - Harvey: 3.5 It's not an easy call as to which guy is more valuable to his respective team, or to other teams in a vacuum. Harvey is going to get expensive soon. Bogaert's not so quickly. So there's some money savings in having Bogaerts over Harvey. The reason a trade like this could work for the Mets and Red Sox is this: each would be dealing from excess strength to shore up a major area of weakness. The Mets have a ton of guys coming up. The Red Sox could plug Marrero in, or simply have Holt be the starting SS, and he would be just fine there. The Sox with Harvey at the top of the rotation and All-star Brock Holt at SS is way better than no Harvey but with Bogaerts at SS.

Every team that wins the World Series obviously has "enough" pitching to win. ;-) I think you mean you can never have "too much" of it. But if you can never have too much of it, why would they trade Harvey even for Trout? Obviously there's a point where hitting becomes more valuable to a team than pitching. The question is simply where to draw the line. For the Mets, who not only are loaded with quality starting pitchers, but who also have a lot more coming through the minor leagues, dealing from strength to acquire needed bats may be the optimal use of their resources. But I agree with your point that they almost certainly can get someone of Bogaerts' caliber for a guy like Harvey.

I wouldn't say the "least" of our problems. I mean, his August/September numbers are horrifying: 15 g, 13.2 ip, 24 h, 14 r, 14 er, 6 bb, 10 k, 9.22 era, 2.20 whip, opponents hitting .400/.448/.633/1.081, 5 blown saves I mean, that's as bad as it gets, 700. He's been a MAJOR problem the last month and a half. If you can consider anything at this point to be a real "problem".

He hasn't. He's just had one. But that makes him a higher risk because a second one pretty much does him in.