Orange Juiced

This morning's standings (8/2/12) find the Red Sox 3.5 out of the wild card, with the following teams ahead of them: Oak, Det, TB, and Bal. The next 14 games are huge. 4 vs Min 3 vs Tex 4 at Cle 3 at Bal Texas is obviously tough. Baltimore is ahead of them in the standings but I think they're very beatable. And they *should* handle Minnesota and Cleveland. I think the Sox need to go 10-4 over this stretch. That's doable. The losses they can "afford" to have in this stretch are to Texas. They really shouldn't lose much to Minnesota or Cleveland, and they can't really afford to lose ground to Baltimore. After this 14-game stretch there's a pretty tough 13-game stretch featuring the Yankees and Angels (with 4 vs. KC thrown in). Time to make some hay. Lester vs. Deduno Doubront vs. Duensing Buchholz vs. De Vries Beckett (maybe) vs. Blackburn Time for Lester to throw a gem. It starts tonight.

Youkilis in his last 12 games has put up this line: 41 ab, 7 r, 5 h, 2 hr, 4 rbi, .122/.280/.268/.548 Jed Lowrie is injured and hasn't played since July 14. And in his previous 29 games (before going on the DL) had put up this line: 93 ab, 11 r, 15 h, 2 hr, 8 rbi, .161/.282/.269/.551 And Reddick is 0 for his last 21 as you said, but beyond that, here's his line the last 10 games: 42 ab, 4 r, 6 h, 1 hr, 4 rbi, .143/.182/.333/.515

Absolutely. 700 is dead wrong about this. Just because it wasn't a "big" or flashy trade doesn't mean it wasn't a wise one. This gives them more flexibility, and the fact of the matter is that Breslow is a better pitcher than Albers is. Career #s: Albers: 4.78 era, 92 era+, 1.50 whip, 6.4 k/9, only 2 (out of 7) years with an era below 4.50 Breslow: 3.00 era, 141 era+, 1.23 whip, 7.8 k/9, every one of his 7 years he has had an era below 3.80 I mean, it's no contest as to who is a better pitcher, Breslow or Albers. So if you can trade a generally bad pitcher having a good year for a generally really good pitcher (who is also having a good year), that means you're selling high on the generally bad pitcher, which is always a good thing. Ergo, the trade, while not a major trade, was a very good one, and it improved the Boston Red Sox. Isn't that what you want to do in trades? :dunno:

For all the talk about how much he stinks, the guy has made it to the frickin' MAJOR LEAGUES. There probably isn't a single guy in this entire forum that he couldn't make look pretty silly. We all wish we had half the talent he has. Obviously when we talk about major leaguers "stinking" it's relative to other major leaguers, not regular people like us, but still. If we had to get in the box against him, we'd be embarrassed.

My original post to start the thread was simply to say that we have the surprising results (so far) that Mortensen has been more valuable than Scutaro has been this year. And he has been. It wasn't a statement on whether he'd ever be a dominant reliever or whatever. I think what he is is a pretty effective long reliever, last-man-in-the-bullpen kind of guy. And, considering that he only costs less than 500k, that's a lot of real value. I don't ever expect him to be a good starter or a high-leverage guy. But that's ok...every team needs quality low-leverage guys. Mortensen fits that category quite nicely.

It doesn't matter. Mortensen stinks. I've come around to the king's point of view.

You win.

Um..... please explain.

I know you aren't suggesting that Gonzo is Manny, but I'll just say it: Gonzo isn't even remotely in the same class as Manny in terms of being a hitter. Not even close. Just go by ops+ numbers, because those are park-adjusted. Here are Manny's ops+ numbers from his first full season (age 23) through his age 30 season: 147 146 144 146 174 186 162 184 Now here are Gonzalez' ops+ numbers from his first full season (age 24) through his age 30 season: 127 126 140 162 152 154 106 Don't get me wrong - Gonzo has been a tremendous hitter. But Manny was otherworldly...one of the best the sport has ever seen. Gonzo has had one season with an ops+ of 155 or higher. Manny had three seasons of an ops+ of 174 or more three times by the age of 30. Manny's worst pre-30 season (by ops+) was a 144. That number would have been 4th on Gonzalez' list. So I get your point - that this may be just a down year for Gonzalez. And I hope you're right. But Manny *never* had a down year like what Gonzalez is having this year. Not remotely.

Yes. I'm trying to think through who the significant pieces we would get back would be. Hamilton + Ogando for Ellsbury/Beckett/Shoppach would indeed be a blockbuster.

I'm guessing Hamilton. No joke. There have been musings by a number of baseball people that perhaps they'd be willing to trade him. He hasn't been playing well (see Nolan Ryan's comments about him recently), and he's due a HUGE contract (not dissimilar to Ellsbury). Blockbusters are that way when significant pieces go both ways. The Sox had to have been getting someone really, really good if they were going to trade Ellsbury/Beckett/Shoppach in the same deal.

He has options, that's why. Dude has been really good for the Sox this year. And yes, he's been more valuable than Scutaro. Hard as it is, perhaps, to believe.

Aviles slid into Scutaro's slot, that's why I'm comparing those two. And Mortensen may be a bum. But amazingly, he's been a more valuable major leaguer than Marco Scutaro has been this year. I would never have thought that was possible when the trade was made, but there it is.

Marco Scutaro was coming off a pretty solid season for Boston in 2011: .781 ops, 109 ops+, 2.6 WAR. So to save money (ostensibly), they trade him to Colorado for Clayton Mortensen. Um...who? Exactly. Well, here are this year's numbers: Scutaro: .277/.330/.369/.699, 79 ops+, 0.1 WAR Aviles, Scutaro's replacement: .252/.275/.395/.670, 76 ops+, 1.8 WAR Thus, Aviles has been more valuable this year than Scutaro has been. Ok, so SS is fine. What about Mortensen? Mortensen: 23.0 ip, 1.17 era, 0.87 whip, 6.7 k/9, 0.8 WAR So Mortensen has been, despite limited innings, more valuable this year than Scutaro has been. Who'd a thunk it?