Orange Juiced

Well, we have no idea if Ben *was* in on it or not. Maybe he offered a ton but they liked the Jays' package better. Who knows.

Holy cow. From mlbtraderumors.com: "One source tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link) that Johnson, Buehrle, Reyes, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio are all going to Toronto. Right-hander Henderson Alvarez and left-hander Justin Nicolino will be among those going to Miami, Rosenthal tweets." And: "The Blue Jays are on the verge of acquiring Josh Johnson from the Marlins, a source tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Toronto will also land Mark Buehrle in the trade, sources tell Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) and Morosi. The Marlins will receive Yunel Escobar and Adeiny Hechavarria in return, Rosenthal tweets." So the Jays will get, perhaps, Johnson, Buehrle, Reyes, Buck, and Bonifacio, while the Marlins get Escobar, Alvarez, Nicolino, Hechavarria, and maybe other pieces. Talk about a genuine blockbuster. The Sox should have been all over this. Would have given the Sox a rotation of Johnson, Buehrle, Lester, Buchholz, and Lackey. That would have been fantastic. And it would have given them a franchise SS, along with a really useful player in Bonifacio. Granted, we would have been aghast at the prospects they would have had to give up, but still....wow.

Lineup for 2013: SS Reyes 2b Pedroia CF Ellsbury LF Stanton DH Ortiz 3b Middlebrooks 1b Napoli RF Ross/Kalish C Ross/Lavarnway SP - Johnson, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Sanchez That team would not only be able to merely "compete" in the AL East, it would instantly be the best team in the division.

I shudder to think what the asking price would be for Stanton. The dude is *ridiculous* and in Fenway he would threaten the 50-hr mark annually. Here are his career numbers: 2010 (20) - 359 ab, 22 hr, 59 rbi, .259/.326/.507/.833, 118 ops+ 2011 (21) - 516 ab, 34 hr, 87 rbi, .262/.356/.537/.893, 141 ops+ 2012 (22) - 449 ab, 37 hr, 86 rbi, .290/.361/.608/.969, 158 ops+ Sick, sick numbers for a freaking *22* year old. But if Florida is selling, and Boston has a gaping hole in SP, OF and SS, the Sox could potentially be a landing spot for a triple combo platter mega-trade. What about this: Sox give: Bogaerts, De La Rosa, Barnes, Bradley, Bard (if Fla likes him; if not, Ranaudo or Workman), and Doubront Sox get: Reyes, Stanton, Johnson The Sox end up adding a ton of payroll: Reyes: 2013 - $10m 2014 - $16m 2015 - $22m 2016 - $22m 2017 - $22m 2018 - option Johnson 2013 - $13.8m Stanton - peanuts for a while - won't be a FA until 2018 But wow. The Sox would add a really good SP, an absolute monster masher in LF at good dollars for years, and a legit SS. I don't like Reyes' contract, obviously, but with Iglesias' very weak bat and Bogaerts maybe not ending up at SS, it would fill a big need. Yes, they're giving up their best prospects in this hypothetical deal, but still. They have the money available now to make such a move. I think this is the kind of deal they should consider trying to make, even at such a steep cost in prospects.

You may very well be right. But go to the starting pitcher list I gave. Are those things unreasonable expectations? If so, which ones are unreasonable? (maybe all of them are, I don't know) But if they're not unreasonable, is that starting staff, as described, not sufficient for the Red Sox to compete in the AL East?

This is a good list. I think that the power bullpen arm *could* be in-house in Daniel Bard. Obviously, we all know he has the ability. From 2010-11 he was one of the most dominant setup guys in the sport, so we know he can do it. It's just a question of whether he gets his head screwed on straight, and I'm really hoping that Farrell can help solve his problems. As far as the first point goes (SP), is this unreasonable?.... - Lester, under Farrell, reverts back to typical Lester form (from 2008-11 he averaged 203 ip, a 16-8 record, and a 3.33 era) - Buchholz simply stays healthy for a whole year and puts up numbers like he did from May through the end of the year: 3.41 era, 1.12 whip - Lackey returns from TJ surgery and is the Lackey of 2010, not 2011, and puts up a line of 215 ip, 14-11, 4.40 era - Doubront, as a now 25-year old, improves on last year's 11-10, 4.86 line and puts up a 13 win, 4.50 line - And they add one other good starter, like Anibal Sanchez, for example. If that happens, is that a pitching rotation that can compete in the AL East? I know there are a bunch of "ifs" there, but how many of them are unreasonable or unrealistic? It would give them a really good 1-2 punch (again, assuming those numbers above are what they do), Sanchez should be a solid #3, and two guys that win double-digit games with essentially league-average ERAs in the #4 and #5 spots is pretty good.

I concur. I'd like to see their long-term philosophy vis-a-vis the DH is to just have more good baseball players on the team, and use the DH to exploit specific matchups/splits, and to give guys a kind of day of "rest". It also gives the team more flexibility when playing in NL parks.

I really hope that someone becomes enamored with Salty's legitimate power at the C position (25 hr in just 405 ab) that the Sox can pull off a pretty nice trade. I like Ross/Lavarnway at C for the next two seasons.

Four years is too long. He'll be 32 in May. They'd be paying him for ages 32, 33, 34, and 35. I think that's too long. Three years max.

The Sox have money to burn right now. If they're going to go after Hamilton, I suggest going crazy with a 2-year, $60-70 million deal. No joke. They really can afford that, and if Hamilton is healthy after those two years, he'll just be 34 and will be able to get *another* pretty nice contract. Hopefully not from the Sox, but from someone.

Nor would I. That's crazy money for a good, but not great, pitcher. I mean, I'd like to have him, and I think he would be very helpful, but I'd rather go short years and more AAV than a longer contract.

But that knowledge may keep Cleveland's asking price down somewhat. I like Choo as a one-year player, giving guys like Jacobs, Bradley Jr., and Brentz more time to develop.

Sox appear to be in on Anibal Sanchez. Might take 4 years, $50-60 million. Here are his stats the past few years: 2010: 32 g, 195.0 ip, 13-12, 3.55 era, 117 era+, 1.34 whip, 7.2 k/9 2011: 32 g, 196.1 ip, 8-9, 3.67 era, 106 era+, 1.28 whip, 9.3 k/9 2012: 31 g, 195.2 ip, 9-13, 3.86 era, 105 era+, 1.27 whip, 7.7 k/9 So it appears that what you're getting with Sanchez is a guy who gives you 195 innings, about a 3.70 era, a 1.30 whip, and about 8 strikeouts per 9 innings. His b-ref WAR the past 3 seasons: 2.9, 3.5, 2.6. At about $5.5 million per WAR, it means he's been worth about $15.9 m, $19.3 m, and $14.3 m. So 4 years, $60 million for his age 29, 30, 31, and 32 seasons is probably about right.

I like Napoli (except when he's playing against the Red Sox) and think he'd be a good fit here. But the contract has to be kept short, even if the dollar value goes up per year. Last two seasons: 2011: .320/.414/.630/1.046, 30 hr, 75 rbi, 369 ab 2012: .227/.343/.469/.812, 24 hr, 56 rbi, 352 ab Numbers declined from 2011, and he's 31 years old now. Almost certainly on the back side of his career. I think Fenway is ideal for him and think that, if he gets 450 ab, he can put up 25-30 hr, but it would be a mistake, IMO, to give him more than 2 years plus maybe an option. 2 years, $24 million, with a team option for a 3rd year at $10 million ($2 million buyout). If he produces, you'll want to pick up that third year, and if he doesn't, at least you can cut him loose after two seasons. Right-handed power would be a superb complement to Ortiz. Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Middlebrooks.... that would be a nice 1-5.

From rotoworld.com: "ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reports that the Diamonbacks will listen to offers on pitching prospect Trevor Bauer. Bauer sort of marches to the beat of his own drum, which has rubbed some in the Arizona front office the wrong way. But he's only 21 years old and was dominant in the Snakes' minor league system this summer. The D'Backs need to get something good in return if they trade him." This kid is tremendous. I'd back up the Brinks truck to get him if I was Cherington.

Why is it an either/or question? I think they will need to be patient for guys like Barnes, Webster, and De La Rosa to develop. In the meanwhile, they'll need to field an actual major league team. Getting Haren on a short deal (one or two years) is probably pretty perfect, actually. It's very possible that he returns to the really good Haren he's been most of his career. And that would serve as a terrific bridge to the year when those young guns are up and producing. And if he stinks, well then, at least the contract is short.

So far I'm liking the new coaching staff, for a couple of reasons. First, because everyone that's on board seems incredibly professional and competent. Second, because the front office (including Ben) got their #1 guy in Farrell, and then Farrell got his #1 guy in Peterson. That's how it's supposed to work. It's a reminder just how disjointed last year's staff was.

Yes. Unfortunately, Beckett is usually good in odd years, which means he'll be pretty solid for LA next year. Oh well.

Dan Haren's stats last year: 176.2 ip, 4.33 era, 87 era+, 1.29 whip, 7.2 k/9 Not an ace anymore, but that would have made him the #1 starter on the 2012 Boston Red Sox. Moreover, those numbers were skewed by a horrific 5-game stretch in the middle of the year, where he pitched 27.0 ip, and surrendered 43 h, 8 bb, and 26 er, for an era of 8.67 and a whip of 1.89. He then finished the season, over his last 13 starts, putting up this line: 73.0 ip, 77 h, 14 bb, and 29 er, for an era of 3.58 and a whip of 1.25 In other words, that's a pitcher the Red Sox sure could use. On a one-year deal, with plenty of money to spend, I think that's a really good idea. Haren at the top, followed by Lester and Buchholz, who I think will be helped immensely by John Farrell, with Lackey and either Doubront or Morales, would be a pretty solid rotation. Of course, lots of things could go wrong with that, but still, it could be pretty good.

cnnsi is speculating that maybe the Red Sox will want Youkilis back. Here are his numbers for Chicago this past season: .236/.346/.425/.771, 106 ops+, 15 hr, 46 rbi in 292 ab What's that worth? His bWAR was 0.5 (for his entire season), and at about $6 million per win, that means he was worth about $3 million last year. His numbers with the White Sox make him worth a little more. So what would I pay him at this point if I was the Red Sox considering bringing him back to play 1b? Well, maybe something in the $4-5 million range, for one year. If he doesn't live up to it, oh well, it's not a huge loss of money. If he does, then terrific.

How do you know it was Cherington that really wanted Farrell? How do you know this wasn't a Henry/Werner/Lucchino decision all the way?

As I said in a different thread, I don't know if Farrell is the best hire. We'll find out. The ownership is in love with the guy, and they've had plenty of exposure to him, so I think we need to trust that, being relatively smart people, they're making a well-informed, quality decision there. With respect to compensation, goodness, how can anyone be upset with it being Aviles? He's a useful utility guy, but not a guy who should be a MLB starter. I was worried that a good prospect would be going to Toronto. And getting back Lind? Serious splits, a guy with good power, but not good at getting on base. He's a guy with whom you construct a platoon. Career splits: vs RHP: .282/.335/.502/.836 vs LHP: .220/.264/.343/.607 So he plays vs. RHP and you need a guy to play 1b vs. LHP. Could Jerry Sands, already in the organization, be that guy? In limited playing time, here are his career MLB splits: vs RHP: .204/.301/.289/.589 vs LHP: .316/.372/.532/.904 Here's Lind's contract: 2013: $5 mil 2014: $7 mil (team option; $2m buyout) 2015: $7.5 mil (team option; $1m buyout) 2016: $8 mil (team option; $500k buyout) So if they really don't like Lind, they live with him for 2013, then buy him out for 2014, and the whole experience costs them $7 million. Given that they now have plenty of money to work with, this represents no problem whatsoever. And it means that, if they went with the platoon idea of Lind/Sands, that for about $5.5 million in 2013, they can have a 1b that produces approximately this line: .295/.345/.515/.860, with about 25 homers and 80 rbi Not HOF-level, but pretty useful.

I really don't know what to think of the pursuit of the next manager for the Red Sox. Obviously they like Farrell, and it's clear that not being particularly successful in one place does not mean that you can't be successful elsewhere (Torre, Francona, etc.). I want someone who handles people well (to me, that's the #1 job of a manager), who commands the players' respect, and who puts players in the best position to succeed. If that all happens, and the players have talent, the team should do fine. Is Farrell that guy? Who knows. Is Ausmus or Pena a better candidate? Who knows. I don't really know enough about these guys to know how they'd do in all three areas I listed. But the bottom line is this: the players need to stop sucking, regardless of who the manager is.

Look at these pitching numbers: Lester: 4.82 era, 1.38 whip Buchholz: 4.56 era, 1.33 whip Doubront: 4.86 era, 1.45 whip Beckett: 5.23 era, 1.33 whip Cook: 5.65 era, 1.47 whip Matsuzaka: 8.28 era, 1.71 whip Bard: 6.22 era, 1.74 whip Aceves: 5.36 era, 1.32 whip Melancon: 6.20 era, 1.27 whip Bailey: 7.04 era, 1.89 whip Padilla: 4.50 era, 1.48 whip I mean, holy crap. That's a gigantic list of colossal suck right there. The only guys who ended up having even somewhat decent seasons were: Atchison: 1.58 era, 0.99 whip Miller: 3.35 era, 1.19 whip Morales: 3.77 era, 1.23 whip Tazawa: 1.47 era, 0.98 whip Mortensen: 3.21 era, 1.21 whip Albers: 2.29 era, 1.14 whip Breslow: 2.79 era, 1.09 whip Hill: 1.83 era, 1.42 whip No wonder the Sox only won 69 games.

You know, I said that after last year when Lackey and his 6.41 era took the hill 28 times. I thought that the Sox' rotation would have to get better, almost by default. Whoops.