Orange Juiced

Depends on the prospect.

Until this year he was sitting 93-95 regularly. At the start of this year his velocity was low, but it's been steadily improving. Last few starts he's been around 92. Here's his fangraphs velocity chart: http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/1478_P_FA_20130719.png Notice the vast drop-off to start the season, but the steady improvement as the season has gone on.

He's not my favorite pitcher, and I think he'd give me a heart attack here, but man, your hyperbole is off the charts. KRod blows. Here are his stats: Last 4 seasons: 225.2 ip (not a small sample), 2.91 era, 1.25 whip, 9.7 k/9 This season: 24.2 ip, 1.09 era, 1.05 whip, 9.5 k/9 And he's only 31. Feels like he's been in the majors since 1979, but he's not at all long in the tooth yet. If this is the portrait of a pitcher that "blows", I'm guessing your expectations are insane.

Felix really has three plus pitches: his 94-95 mph fastball, his curve, and even his changeup. He has excellent stuff. It's just been a question of him harnessing it. It appears that he is heading in the direction of harnessing it, and we are seeing the results.

You look to a team with a lot of young, up-and-coming but not quite ready for prime time, starting pitching. Think Atlanta and Arizona, for example. Both could afford Lackey, and both have some terrific young starting pitching.

Right. No question. But if Lackey finishes this season strong, he'll be worth an awful lot to a team with even semi-serious playoff aspirations in 2014-15.

LOL absolutely. So now that he's pitching well and they could actually get something good for him, we don't want that to happen? It kind of illustrates the problem...when our guys are going bad we want to trade them, but who would want them? Them when they are going good enough to fetch something valuable we don't want to trade them. If only people would take our trash and give us their treasure.

Yah I'm not necessarily suggesting that they're looking to trade Lackey. But my goodness, four months ago if I told you the Sox could get something pretty valuable for him, you, me, and every Sox fan on earth would have taken that, no questions asked. Dealing Buchholz is interesting. I'd have to think about what he might fetch. Clearly, he's a great pitcher. Just can't stay on the field. But über-talented and pretty young and cheap. He'd still likely bring back something good.

Yeah, no doubt. With Buchholz out indefinitely and Lester sucking, those are a couple of major problems with the starting pitching. Thankfully Lackey and Doubront have been excellent. Dempster has been serviceable (last 10 starts: 3.90 era). But man, Lester and Buchholz are killing them right now (by being injured/ineffective). And Tampa is coming on like a freight train.

Good start by Doubront again on Friday night against the Yankees. The kid has now gone 4 straight starts pitching into the 7th inning. I think that's the next phase of his development...consistently giving them 7+ innings. He's getting there. By the way, the kid is making just north of $500k this year. He will pitch for similar money in 2014. He finally gets to arbitration in 2015, and is free agent eligible in 2018. So they have him for a while at low dollars. Hard-throwing lefty that has several top-level major league pitches, is starting to harness that stuff, is already pitching like a #3 or #2 starter, is just 25 years old, is under team control for five more seasons minimum, and is making peanuts? I think we can live with that.

I'm fine if they think Bogaerts needs more time in AAA. But I'm also fine putting Drew on the bench, having Iggy play SS, and then moving Bogaerts to 3b with the big league club. I mean, here's what the Sox have gotten from Drew and Middlebrooks (the combo of players that Bogaerts would be replacing, in effect): Drew: 237 ab, 54 h, 14 2b, 6 3b, 5 hr, 31 rbi, 30 bb, 71 k, 1 hbp, .228/.315/.401/.716 Middlebrooks: 203 ab, 39 h, 13 2b, 0 3b, 9 hr, 25 rbi, 9 bb, 60 k, 1 hbp, .192/.228/.389/.617 TOTAL: 440 ab, 93 h, 27 2b, 6 3b, 14 hr, 56 rbi, 39 bb, 131 k, 2 hbp, .211/.279/.395/.674 It appears pretty obvious that Bogaerts is capable of putting up at least a .211/.279/.395/.674 line in the majors.

In the offseason between the 2009 and 2010 season, the Red Sox signed John Lackey, fresh off an 11-8, 3.83 season with LA, to a 5-year, $80.4 million contract. That's an average of $16.08 million per season. Though they really needed starting pitching, this seemed a bit steep at the time, though free agent starting pitching is always very expensive. In 2010 he was not horrible, but he wasn't what we expected: 14-11, 4.40 era, but he was a horse, pitching 215 innings, so there was some value there. Underperformed given that he was paid $18.7 million in 2010, but oh well. Then 2011 happened. He put up this line: 160.0 ip, 12-12, 6.41 era, and was one of the worst starting pitchers in franchise history. And the Sox were staring at 3 more seasons at greater than $15 million per season. It looked like one of the worst contracts in all of baseball. Heck, it didn't just look like it...it WAS. TJ surgery wiped out 2012, but hey, at least the Sox were one year closer to being rid of that horrible contract. It also kicked in a Sox option for 2015 for just $500,000, should they desire to keep him for that season. And now in 2013, the revelation. 7-7, 2.95 era, 1.16 whip, 8.4 k/9, velocity is up, walks are way down, he's basically dominating games at this point. Easily pitching like a true #1. Since May 19, his line is: 80.0 ip, 2.59 era, 1.06 whip, 8.2 k/9. Dude is dealing. And thanks to that TJ surgery, it means that the Sox will have Lackey under contract for two more seasons if they desire, at a grand total of $15.750 million. That averages out to just $7.9 million a year. The thought of Lackey being a #1 or even a #2 caliber pitcher at that money is very nice; even more so given that he would be making just $500k in 2015. I do not see him pitching to sub-3.00 eras the rest of his time with Boston. But I do see him being basically what he was with the Angels - an innings-eater that gives you a solid mid-3's era, which is worth a TON. And they'd have him for a reasonable rate in 2014 and a ridiculous discount in 2015. And I wonder how much value that has for the Sox...not just if they keep him, but also if they decided to trade him at some point. (not this year, obviously)

When your batting average is at .400, even if you hit like a Hall-of-Famer the rest of the way (say, .300), you're still going to see your season average drop like a rock. Given how hot he was early on, he'll probably end up in the .260 range for the season. Which would make him a very valuable player. But that would also mean that his second half will likely be pretty bad at the plate.

The answer to this is found in post #1008: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/16374-Trades-before-the-deadline?p=854901&viewfull=1#post854901

Your description of Lyon "bombing badly" is grossly inaccurate. From the start of the season up through June 28, he pitched in 34 games and had a 3.45 era. He wasn't great (1.44 whip), but he wasn't "bombing badly". He was not bad actually. Then the tsunami hit. One game, where he put up this line: 0.2 ip, 5 h, 6 r, 6 er, that ballooned his season's era from 3.45 up to 5.06. From there he pitched in two more games and his era dropped those last two games down to 4.98. So other than that one horrific, disastrous outing, he was actually pretty solid. As to why the Mets let him go....who knows. They're not the Mets for no reason.

Brandon Lyon is well worth a flier. I'd suggest you look at his stats the past few years, and then his game log for this year. His numbers this year look awful and then you take a closer look and see that he had one absolutely horrific performance, but other than that his era was in the 3's.

I would think it more likely they accept his $13 million option for 2014 than he gets traded.

Jacobs was fairly well regarded before hitting a wall (figuratively, not literally). He could still amount to something, which is what Chicago is hoping. Of course, he's exactly the kind of guy you need to be willing to trade to acquire the help you need. Thornton isn't as good as he once was, but for a late-inning lefty (maybe a LOOGY), he's still solid. I mean, this year, which has been his worst since 2007, here are his numbers: 3.86 era, 115 era+, 1.25 whip, 6.8 k/9 Here's what lefties are hitting against him: .173/.232/.385/.617 Dude is pretty solid still and just what the doctor ordered for this bullpen. Nice trade by Cherington.

If Iglesias is hitting, it's a no-brainer. He plays. If he isn't hitting, then it becomes a more difficult question.

Yes, the right return would be a fortune. Cishek is a name that's been mentioned. He's solid, but not a must-have. Stanton is a monster, and he's a guy I would consider. But I wouldn't give up Bogaerts, Cecchini, Webster, and more, all for Stanton. Bogaerts has 30+ homer potential from the SS position. Stanton has 45 homer potential from a corner OF spot. Both hugely valuable, but the SS production is more rare, and thus more valuable. So no way would I throw in all that extra stuff as well.

No way.

Right, fair point. Long way to go before we can say he's truly established himself. I just looked up AL starters on espn.com's MLB stats page, and here's where Doubront ranks among qualified AL starters: ERA: #20 IP: #36 K: #18 K/9: #11 WHIP: #38 QS%: #26 There are 15 teams in the league, each with 5 starting rotation slots, so that's 75 starting pitching slots. Doubront is between the 20th-25th best SP in the AL right now, with all those numbers taken into account, which means he's performing at the level of a #2. So Lackey has been terrific, Buchholz has been unreal (when healthy), Doubront has been performing like a #2, and Dempster (4.04 era) has been solid. If they can just get Buchholz healthy and Lester on track, this rotation is going to be tremendous.

Agreed. But, of course, he has already been consistently good this year. In his last 10 starts: - 8 of 10 have lasted 6+ innings (the other two were 4.2 and 5.0) - only one has he given up more than 6 hits (and it was 7 hits allowed) - only two has he given up more than 2 er (and both were 3 er allowed) - 8 of 10 have been quality starts That's pretty much as consistently good as it gets. The only thing you'd like to see is him going deeper into games...instead of 6+, I'd like to see 7+. But again, at this point in his career, I'll happily take what we're getting.

Well nobody has suggested that they convert him to relief yet. I suggested he gets a couple more starts before they make a shift. So that doesn't prove anything, really. I guess we'll wait and see. I agree they have a better handle on this than we do, so it'll be interesting to see what they do.

Overall this year, Doubront has put up the following line: 99.0 ip, 97 h, 43 er, 43 bb, 93 k, 3.91 era, 1.41 whip, 8.5 k/9 He's only had one start (out of 16 total starts) where he's given up more than 3 earned runs. If you take away his one emergency relief outing (where he gave up 11 hits and 6 runs in 5.1 ip), his line as a starter is: 93.2 ip, 86 h, 37 er, 41 bb, 89 k, 3.56 era, 1.35 whip, 8.6 k/9 I mean, that's a terrific starter. He's averaging just under 6 innings per start (5.9, as it were). I wish he'd go deeper into games, but that's ok. The performance is there. His last 11 starts his line is: 66.2 ip, 54 h, 20 er, 27 bb, 58 k, 2.70 era, 1.21 whip, 7.8 k/9 And his last 5 starts his line is: 33.0 ip, 22 h, 7 er, 11 bb, 25 k, 1.91 era, 1.00 whip, 6.8 k/9 So the k/9 rate has been dropping, but the whip has been improving considerably, as has the era. The guy is just dealing, and the results are tremendous. He's just 25 years old and has terrific stuff. His problem has always been command. But now that he's shoring up his command, he's starting to dominate. So the question is this: Is this just a blip on the radar for him, or is this the next step in his development to #2 starter status? How great would it be to have this guy, who is under control through 2017 and entering his prime years, grow into a top-level starter?